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PQ on track for possible majority as new polls show CAQ in steep decline

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Maratta, A. S. (2026, September 29). PQ on track for possible majority as new polls show CAQ in steep decline. Global News. https://globalnews.ca/news/12076622/pq-possible-majority-quebec-election/

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Global News · collected 2026-09-29 · by Alessia Simona Maratta

Quick Summary

Recent polls indicate a surge for the Parti Québécois (PQ) and a significant decline for the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in Quebec’s upcoming provincial election. The PQ could potentially secure a majority government, while projections suggest the CAQ might not win any seats. This shift comes after a controversy involving a CAQ staff member encouraging journalists to write about an American think tank's report on destabilizing Canada through separatist parties, which CAQ leader Christine Fréchette condemned. Meanwhile, PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is confident in his party’s momentum and potential to form a majority government, positioning the PQ to push for a sovereignty referendum by 2029.
Written by AI on 2026-09-29, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

New polls in Quebec suggest the Parti Québécois (PQ) could win a majority government in next week's provincial election, while support for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has sharply declined. One projection indicates the CAQ might lose all its seats, currently holding power. The Léger survey places the PQ ahead of other parties, including placing the CAQ at only 16% in fourth place. PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon aims to hold a sovereignty referendum by 2029 if his party secures legislative numbers. This shift could signal a significant change in Quebec's political landscape and its stance on independence from Canada, with implications for broader Canadian federalism.

Written for “Quebec Election Polls” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Quebec Election Polls
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 9% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
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“Article A describes the first day of advance polling for the upcoming election on October 5th, while Article B discusses recent polls predicting election outcomes.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
23
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
9%
2 of 23 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
63/100
Global News's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-29 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Global News · 2683 article(s) · 11 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 11 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Alessia Simona Maratta
55 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Also by Alessia Simona Maratta
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Topics

CAQ Canada Liberals Quebec Quebecers

Subjects

CAQ ORG · 6× Fréchette PERSON · 4× Quebec GPE · 4× Canada GPE · 2× Liberals NORP · 2× Milliard PERSON · 2× Quebecers NORP · 2× St-Pierre Plamondon PERSON · 2× the Coalition Avenir Québec ORG · 1× the Parti Québécois ORG · 1×

Narrative

- Economic, budget promises the focus of week 2 of B.C. election campaign A PQ majority would give St-Pierre Plamondon the legislative numbers needed to pursue the referendum on Quebec sovereignty that he has promised for 2029 after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-29
🔮 New polling suggests the Parti Québécois could be headed toward a majority government in next week’s provincial election, while support for the Coalition Avenir Québec has fallen sharply, with one projection suggesting the governing party could fail to win a single seat.
2026-09-29 · Global News
PQ on track for possible majority as new polls show CAQ in steep decline · assertive framing

Claims (23 extracted, 2 hedged)

New polling suggests the Parti Québécois could be headed toward a majority government in next week’s provincial election, while support for the Coalition Avenir Québec has fallen sharply, with one projection suggesting the governing party could fail to win a single seat. uncertain
party → suggest → seat
Three polls released with one week remaining in the campaign point to growing momentum for PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and mounting challenges for CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette. asserted
week → release → Fréchette
A Léger survey places the CAQ at 16 per cent support, putting the party in fourth place behind the PQ, Quebec Liberals and Conservatives. asserted
survey → place → PQ
A projection by Route127.ca suggests the CAQ could be shut out of the national assembly altogether, while placing the PQ in majority-government territory. uncertain
CAQ → suggest → territory
“We have a very strong team and I’m pretty confident that we will convince Quebecers to support us and vote for us,” Fréchette told reporters on the campaign trail Monday. asserted
Fréchette → have → trail
The polling comes after a difficult weekend for the CAQ. asserted
polling → come → CAQ
Fréchette said she spoke with her communications team after reports emerged that a staff member had encouraged journalists to write about a publication from a fringe American think tank that promoted the idea of destabilizing Canada by supporting separatist parties. asserted
that → say → parties
Get breaking National news Fréchette said the initiative was undertaken without her knowledge. asserted
initiative → get → knowledge
“I think it should be discussed with me first, so this is the change that we brought,” she said. asserted
she → think → that
Liberal Leader Charles Milliard said the controversy reinforces his argument that his party is the best option for Quebecers who want to avoid another referendum debate. asserted
who → say → debate
“My take is that the CAQ over the weekend has disqualified itself,” Milliard said. asserted
Milliard → disqualify → itself
The latest projections suggest the Liberals remain solidly in second place. asserted
Liberals → suggest → place
“They need to hear me out, they need to join us, and make sure that we can form the government in eight days,” Milliard said. asserted
Milliard → need → days
Meanwhile, St-Pierre Plamondon campaigned in the Eastern Townships as polling and projections continued to favour his party. asserted
polling → campaign → party
“We have the best team, we have the momentum, and we have solid and intelligent solutions to what the CAQ has left behind,” he said. asserted
he → have → what
- Manitoba PC Leader Obby Khan stepping down over internal fighting in party - asserted
Khan → step → party
Alberta announces next step in high-speed rail plan to connect Edmonton, Calgary - asserted
Alberta → announce → Edmonton
As federal budget nears, Canada’s health ministers to meet to talk funding asserted
ministers → near → funding
- Economic, budget promises the focus of week 2 of B.C. election campaign A PQ majority would give St-Pierre Plamondon the legislative numbers needed to pursue the referendum on Quebec sovereignty that he has promised for 2029 after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office. asserted
Trump → give → office
“We would actually be the richest country on the first day of the foundation of the country, the richest country in the history of our planet in terms of GDP per capita on day one,” he said about Quebec becoming an independent nation. asserted
Quebec → say → day
Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime also cast his party as a bastion against Quebec sovereignty, particularly if the election results in a minority government. asserted
election → cast → government
“The Conservative party is now second among francophones and we’re the only ones who can stop the Parti Québécois and their obsession with sovereignty,” Duhaime said. asserted
Duhaime → ’re → sovereignty
Despite the polling numbers, Fréchette said a week remains in the campaign and expressed confidence her party can still recover before voters head to the polls on election day. asserted
voters → say → day
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