For 38-year-old Leandro Valdivia, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ’s pre-election crackdown on fixed-odds betting came too late to save his marriage or $26,000 from his bank account.
asserted
crackdown → fix → account
Still, he has anxiously checked the news since the government’s ban was announced on Friday, fearing a judge will strike it down.
asserted
judge → check → it
Brazil’s betting market is in turmoil since Lula, nine days before the first round of presidential elections, signed an order to ban all platforms.
asserted
Lula → sign → platforms
In a tightly contested election, that prohibition is one of the few measures of his that even supporters of rival Flávio Bolsonaro support.
asserted
supporters → contest → Bolsonaro
Brazil’s government said on Monday it had removed 506 websites that allegedly continued to offer the service.
uncertain
that → say → service
Lula’s decision ends the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of betting.
asserted
decision → end → betting
It will need congressional approval within 120 days to remain in effect — and no objections from any judge in the nation.
asserted
It → need → nation
Millions of Brazilians succumb to online gambling
Valdivia, a healthcare professional who talks to dozens of online gamblers each week to help them leave the addiction, started placing bets during the 2022 World Cup.
asserted
them → succumb → Cup
He used to gamble about 100 Brazilian reais ($20) in each game and did make a profit.
asserted
He → use → profit
He led himself to believe he understood what made volleyball tick, and that could someday earn him a fortune.
uncertain
that → lead → fortune
But two years later each of Valdivia’s gambles jumped to 10,000 reais ($2,000), and he was not winning any of it back.
asserted
he → jump → it
He was constantly lying to his partner about losing money.
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He → lie → money
He had to give away his small media company and stopped talking to his friends.
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He → have → friends
After he divorced, his cousins intervened; they installed an app to ban betting from his mobile and computer.
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they → divorce → mobile
“This is an addiction that doesn’t give you bad breath.
asserted
that → give → breath
You don’t talk funny, you don’t smell.
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you → talk → ?
Nobody finds it strange if you stay on your phone all day,” Valdivia, who still has debts of 30,000 Brazilian reais ($5,700), said in a phone interview.
asserted
who → find → interview
“It is hard for our judges and for congress to keep this in place.
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It → keep → place
But maybe this ban stays long enough for us to feel the impact in the economy and in people’s mental health,” said Valdivia, who plans to vote for Lula.
asserted
who → stay → Lula
Brazil has one of the world’s biggest online betting markets, which made more than $4 billion in revenues in 2025, according to an institute that represents most of the platforms operating in the South American nation.
uncertain
that → have → nation
The country’s central bank argues it is even more; about 30 billion reais ($5.7 billion) spent on bets each month.
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reais → argue → bets
That figure included spending by beneficiaries of the cash-transfer federal welfare program Bolsa Familia (Family Grant), which was blocked from those platforms last year.
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which → include → platforms
About 2 million Brazilians are addicted to those platforms, a study of Sao Paulo University said in August.
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study → say → August
Politically motivated move amid Lula’s anger with soccer clubs
Creomar de Souza, a political analyst with Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, a consultancy firm based in Brasilia, said despite Lula’s criticism to betting companies, it is clear he picked an electoral moment to do it.
asserted
he → motivate → it
He argues many polls have shown that more than 70% of Brazilians favor banning all betting platforms.
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% → argue → platforms
“The ban doesn’t hurt Lula at all, we need some more time to see whether it does help him in the election as voters digest,” said de Souza, who added Brazil’s president himself pushed for the regulation of betting companies only two years ago.
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president → hurt → companies
“If Congress tosses this order, it doesn’t hurt Lula either.
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it → toss → Lula
He can take some advantage and make pressure, cast himself as an anti-system candidate in an election that should be close.”
asserted
that → take → election
One staffer of Brazil’s government told The Associated Press that Lula did consider a partial ban, but changed course after top division soccer clubs said in a joint statement last week that removing those platforms would mean the end of “futebol,” the nation’s biggest passion.
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removing → tell → futebol
All 20 clubs in Brazil’s Serie A are sponsored by sports betting platforms.
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clubs → sponsor → platforms
The staffer spoke under condition of anonymity for lack of authorization to speak publicly.
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staffer → speak → authorization
Few Brazilians have publicly antagonized the move due to evident hazards brought by online betting to the country’s economy and mental health.
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Brazilians → antagonize → economy
Even presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro avoided criticizing the merits of the decision.
asserted
Bolsonaro → avoid → decision
But betting companies are preparing to challenge the move in different courts, as a group and individually.
asserted
companies → prepare → group
Order might be struck by judge or have its approval expired in Congress
Matheus Puppe, an expert in Brazil’s digital law, said he expects Lula’s order to be struck down soon due to several issues in totally banning a sector from the economy without a transition.
uncertain
order → strike → transition
If a court doesn’t do it, he says, congress might just not vote on it and let the order expire.
uncertain
order → do → it
“It was abrupt, the government did not return the license fee paid by the platforms, it did not care for the workers of those companies,” Puppe said.
asserted
Puppe → return → companies
“But it will be hard to see any judge doing it before Sunday,” he added.
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he → see → Sunday
Valdivia agrees the risks for the order are high.
asserted
risks → agree → order
He argues it is needed since few addicts choose to stop without some help from family and friends.
asserted
addicts → argue → family
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
