Regime change is returning to the policy discussion over Iran, not as a call for another U.S.-led intervention but as a strategic question about whether lasting regional stability is possible while the political system at the center of repeated confrontation remains unchanged.
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system → return → confrontation
At this year’s U.N. General Assembly, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa argued that lasting peace in the Middle East requires political change in Iran.
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lasting → argue → Iran
Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg similarly linked representative government in Iran to long-term regional security.
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Kellogg → retire → security
The Trump administration has not declared regime change its objective, but its own language points to a broader ambition for the pressure now being applied.
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language → declare → pressure
In announcing Operation Economic Outcast in August, the White House said the United States was “entering the endgame.”
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States → announce → endgame
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went further: “America is no longer managing the Iranian threat — we are ending it.”
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we → go → it
These are not declarations of a new U.S. regime change doctrine, but they do mark an important shift in the strategic conversation.
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they → mark → conversation
The discussion is moving beyond how to manage the Islamic Republic and toward whether managing it should remain the objective at all.
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managing → move → it
One way to understand that distinction is through two different approaches to Iran.
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way → understand → Iran
A transactional strategy uses pressure to extract changes in behavior.
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strategy → use → behavior
A transformational strategy recognizes that durable change may require confronting the political conditions that repeatedly produce the same crises.
uncertain
that → recognize → crises
The first approach has long shaped U.S. policy toward Tehran: pressure creates leverage, leverage leads to negotiations, and negotiations seek concessions over nuclear activities, regional conduct, shipping, or other immediate security concerns.
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negotiations → shape → activities
The result may be a transaction, but it does not necessarily amount to a strategy for resolving the underlying conflict.
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it → amount → conflict
Different administrations have employed different instruments and sought different bargains, while largely sharing one assumption: The Islamic Republic itself remained a fixed feature of the strategic landscape.
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Republic → employ → landscape
The June memorandum between Washington and Tehran offers a recent illustration of the limits of that assumption.
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memorandum → offer → assumption
It sought to halt hostilities, restore commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and establish a period for broader negotiations.
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It → seek → negotiations
In return for Iranian commitments, Washington agreed to measures that included lifting its naval blockade, providing oil-related sanctions waivers, and releasing restricted Iranian assets.
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that → agree → assets
The memorandum also contemplated a reconstruction and economic development plan of at least $300 billion.
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memorandum → contemplate → billion
Yet some of the most consequential issues were postponed rather than resolved.
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some → postpone → issues
The Hormuz provision required Iran to use its “best efforts” to facilitate commercial passage while leaving the waterway’s future administration to subsequent discussions.
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provision → require → discussions
Washington and Tehran soon advanced sharply different interpretations of what had been agreed.
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what → advance → interpretations
The arrangement addressed an immediate crisis without resolving the strategic contest that produced it.
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that → address → it
Washington now again possesses considerable leverage.
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Washington → possess → leverage
Operation Economic Outcast targets Iran’s financial connections, aviation, shipping, technology, and other sources of revenue.
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Outcast → target → revenue
The White House describes a “zero-leakage approach” intended to deny the regime economic space to rebuild its capacity.
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House → describe → capacity
The strategic issue is what Washington intends to accomplish with that leverage.
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Washington → intend → leverage
Even after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal, President Donald Trump says he expects further talks with Iran this week, so the possibility of another agreement remains very much alive.
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possibility → reject → agreement
If “endgame” means applying extraordinary pressure only to secure another agreement, it amounts to the same failed policy under a more ambitious name.
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it → mean → name
A genuine endgame would have to confront the reality that recurring confrontation cannot be separated indefinitely from the political system that produces it.
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that → have → it
That is why the return of regime change to the policy discussion matters.
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return → matter → discussion
Uncertainty about when or how political change might occur is not a reason to exclude the durability of the political system from strategic analysis.
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change → occur → analysis
It is equally important, however, to distinguish regime change in Iran from regime change by the United States.
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It → distinguish → States
The first concerns whether Iranians ultimately replace their political system; the second implies that Washington undertakes to replace it for them.
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Washington → concern → them
U.S. strategy can recognize the prospect of internally driven regime change without making preservation of the Islamic Republic an implicit objective of its Iran policy.
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preservation → recognize → policy
This does not necessarily require more sanctions or more military action, nor does it require the U.S. to choose Iran’s future leaders.
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it → require → leaders
The National Council of Resistance of Iran offers one such framework.
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Council → offer → framework
Its proposed provisional government is presented not as a permanent successor government but as a mechanism for transferring sovereignty to the Iranian people.
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government → propose → people
Under the NCRI’s plan, the provisional government would serve for no more than six months, during which free elections would be held for a national legislative and constituent assembly.
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elections → serve → assembly
Political authority would then pass to the elected representatives.
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authority → pass → representatives
The political framework accompanying that transition is set out in Maryam Rajavi’s 10-point plan, which calls for universal suffrage and political pluralism, freedom of speech and association, separation of religion and state, gender equality, an independent judiciary, and a non-nuclear Iran.
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which → accompany → religion
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
