Where Does the Iran War Go Next?

Oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to 80% of pre-war levels, according to data from oil tracker Kpler, despite ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States since February 28. This increase suggests that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is stabilizing, though experts caution that full security and stability remain uncertain until broader conflicts are resolved. The U.S. military's presence in the region has reportedly helped mitigate Iranian threats to oil shipments, contributing to this recovery. However, Iran continues to face severe economic hardships, with its rial depreciating sharply and inflation soaring, weakening its negotiating position. Despite these challenges, some experts argue that Iran retains significant leverage due to unresolved conflicts, making a quick resolution unlikely.