Europe’s power grid will surpass 80% zero-carbon generation by 2030.
asserted
grid → surpass → 2030
It will still miss its flagship renewables target by the same date, but will eventually accelerate over the coming decades, expanding power demand by 66% by 2050.
asserted
It → miss → 2050
That gap between progress and ambition sits at the centre of Wood Mackenzie’s Europe Power Markets Strategic Planning Outlook 2026, covering 35 national markets through 2060.
asserted
gap → sit → 2060
Demand recovers, but the timing reshapes investment priorities
The transition does not unfold evenly.
asserted
transition → recover → priorities
Total power demand reaches 4,103 TWh by 2030, 11% above 2025 levels, before climbing to 6,152 TWh by 2050, a 66% increase.
asserted
demand → reach → 2050
From the 2030s, falling electricity prices shift the economics of electrification and a new growth wave takes over.
asserted
wave → fall → electrification
Electric vehicle adoption accelerates underpinned by bans on new sales of internal combustion vehicles as EV consumption grows from 39 TWh in 2025 to 577 TWh by 2050, a 15-fold increase.
asserted
consumption → accelerate → 2050
Heat pump demand expands more than fivefold by 2060, though high upfront costs and unfavourable electricity-to-gas price ratios mean most markets fall short of national targets.
asserted
markets → expand → targets
Northern Europe records the strongest absolute demand growth at 81% by 2050.
asserted
Europe → record → 2050
Southern Europe trails at 52%.
asserted
Europe → trail → %
Overall demand sits around 2% lower than Wood Mackenzie’s previous forecast as heat and hydrogen electrification lag, though risk runs both ways: geopolitical uncertainty and commodity price headwinds could slow load growth, while prolonged fossil fuel disruption could accelerate it and trigger additional policies to accelerate decarbonization.
uncertain
disruption → sit → decarbonization
Rapid supply growth still falls short of policy targets
Solar PV capacity nearly doubles to 637 GWac by 2030, adding around 61 GW per year.
asserted
capacity → fall → year
Onshore wind adds 17 GW per year to reach 346 GW.
asserted
wind → add → GW
Offshore wind grows to 73 GW by 2030 before accelerating to 148 GW by 2035, though supply chain pressures and investor uncertainty have delayed its trajectory.
asserted
pressures → grow → trajectory
Renewables reach 65% of supply across the 35 markets by 2030 and 83% by 2050.
asserted
Renewables → reach → 2050
On an EU27 basis, the 2030 share stands at 63.7%, below both the Fit-for-55 target of 65% and the REPowerEU goal of 69%.
asserted
share → stand → %
Battery storage more than triples from 47 GW to 163 GW by 2030, one of the largest near-term capital deployment opportunities in the European energy sector.
asserted
storage → triple → sector
Germany, the UK, Italy and Poland account for over half that growth.
asserted
Germany → account → growth
Load growth from the second half of the 2030s will provide day-ahead price support, offering relief to renewable asset owners navigating low capture pricing as solar expands.
asserted
solar → provide → pricing
Curtailment risks will rise where grid infrastructure lags capacity additions.
asserted
infrastructure → rise → additions
Gas runs higher than the previous forecast, before its long decline
The transformation of Europe’s energy mix has the largest effect on gas.
asserted
transformation → run → gas
The reason is structural: offshore wind downgrades created a supply gap and gas filled it.
asserted
gas → create → it
Capacity rises 5% to 273 GW by 2030, even as fleet utilisation falls from 27% to 22%.
asserted
utilisation → rise → %
Gas is retained for flexibility rather than volume, with capacity mechanisms and flexibility revenues at the centre of the investment case.
asserted
Gas → retain → case
Coal generation halves from 457 TWh in 2025 to 237 TWh by 2030.
asserted
generation → halve → 2030
The EU27 fleet exits the mix by 2050.
asserted
fleet → exit → 2050
Nuclear is gaining ground in parallel; life extensions, new-build programmes and policy reversals in Switzerland and Serbia have strengthened its long-term role.
asserted
extensions → gain → role
As coal retreats and nuclear expands, gas bridges the gap until decarbonised alternatives become commercially viable.
asserted
alternatives → retreat → gap
Gas volumes converge with the previous outlook by the mid-2040s, then fall.
asserted
volumes → converge → mid-2040s
Power supply from gas declines 45% by 2060.
asserted
supply → decline → 2060
Mohammed Alraood, Research Analyst Europe Power at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Europe’s power transition is on track, but it is not evenly distributed.
asserted
it → say → track
Rising emissions costs will force structural decisions that markets are only beginning to price in.
asserted
markets → rise → that
Gas remains in the mix, not for volume but for the moments renewables cannot deliver.
asserted
renewables → remain → moments
It is which markets combine policy certainty, grid capacity and genuine load growth to make projects financeable.”
asserted
projects → combine → certainty
Whether the transition delivers on its projected timeline will depend on the pace of grid investment and interconnector expansion, two variables that no forecast can fully determine.
asserted
forecast → deliver → that
Wood Mackenzie expects the region’s commitment to the energy transition to be sustained, although investment opportunities in new supply will not be uniform across markets.
asserted
opportunities → expect → markets
Developers and investors will need a clear understanding of where the most attractive market opportunities lie.
asserted
opportunities → need → understanding
Europe’s zero-carbon power share exceeds 80% by 2030 and reaches 93% by 2050, yet the EU27 renewables share of 63.7% in 2030 falls short of both the Fit-for-55 target of 65% and the REPowerEU goal of 69%
-
asserted
share → exceed → %
Total power demand across 35 markets rises from 4,103 TWh in 2030 to 6,152 TWh by 2050, driven by EVs growing 15-fold to 577 TWh and on-grid hydrogen scaling to 417 TWh
-
asserted
hydrogen → rise → TWh
Battery storage more than triples from 47 GW to 163 GW by 2030, while offshore wind capacity reaches 73 GW by 2030 and 148 GW by 2035 despite supply chain and investor headwinds
-
asserted
capacity → triple → headwinds
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
