At what would be his last Climate Summit as UN secretary-general, António Guterres took to the stage with characteristic gravitas.
asserted
Guterres → take → gravitas
"We are the first generation with the tools to end the fossil fuel age, and the last who can avert climate catastrophe," the 77-year-old told the audience in September.
"Let us use them well."
One tool, fast becoming the buzzword of global climate talks, is electrification.
asserted
tool → end → talks
COP31 host Türkiye will push for a voluntary pledge at the November conference to meet 35 per cent of global energy demand with electricity by 2035, up from 23 per cent today.
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Türkiye → push → cent
That would mean replacing fuels like gas and petrol with electricity across the transport sector and in homes, businesses and industry.
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That → mean → homes
"We now have a strong common understanding of the urgency of the climate crisis," COP31 president Murat Kurum told the United Nations General Assembly in September.
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Kurum → have → September
"A significant part of the technologies we need is already available.
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we → need → technologies
The key question before us today is, how to put these solutions into practice, into real life?"
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question → put → life
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has done some of the work for them, with a dedicated report on electrification that reveals an energy revolution is already taking place.
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revolution → do → place
Solar PV and wind together are now the largest sources of growth in global electricity generation, overtaking coal and gas to meet over half of new electricity demand.
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PV → overtake → demand
Electric vehicle sales have increased 40-fold since 2015, and dramatically falling costs have driven new stationary battery storage additions, which made up almost 120 gigawatts (GW) in 2025, the equivalent of more than 100 coal-fired power stations.
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which → increase → stations
But if there was interest in electrification before, it has been turbocharged by another kind of crisis.
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it → be → crisis
"Perhaps the most prominent reason is that it's an energy security strategy," said Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford University.
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Rosenow → say → University
"Especially Europe, but also many of the Asian economies rely heavily on imports, and electrification allows them to use domestically generated electricity instead.
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them → rely → electricity
"
The Iran war has left countries reeling from fuel shocks and volatility.
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war → leave → shocks
A proposal to ban diesel exports in the United States is now prompting calls for rationing, as the war looks set to stretch on into next year.
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war → ban → year
"The last serious energy crises were in the 1970s and only in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine," said Professor Rosenow.
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Rosenow → invade → Ukraine
"We've really seen supply-side constraints when it comes to fossil fuels.
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it → see → fuels
"I think that really pushed electrification on top of the agenda," he said.
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he → think → agenda
Since March, about 25 countries have introduced structural policies to boost electrification.
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countries → introduce → electrification
Indonesia is making gas-powered motorbikes electric, while policies in Ethiopia have grown its EV fleet to more than 15 times what it was three years ago.
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it → make → 15
Australia is expanding a public EV kerbside charging program and has electrification incentives for both households and industry, while the Netherlands is replacing gas boilers with heat pumps.
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Netherlands → expand → pumps
China, which accounted for over 60 per cent of the global increase in electricity demand from 2015 to 2025, is now electrifying heavy trucks and inland cargo ships.
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which → account → trucks
"So, we're seeing projects not just in Europe, in the US, in China, but we're also seeing them in places like Thailand, for example, or India
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we → see → example
," said Professor Rosenow, "so this is really something that is getting traction.
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that → say → traction
"Even under Trump, in the US, heat pumps now outsell gas furnaces and continue to do so," he said.
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he → outsell → furnaces
If disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are adding to the momentum behind electrification, the IEA wants to run with it.
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IEA → ship → it
Given 55 per cent of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions come from sectors that can be electrified, including residences, industry and transportation, it argues there are significant climate benefits of converting that energy to clean sources.
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it → give → sources
The agency says electrification would cut the world's energy import bills by more than $US500 billion ($720 billion) every year, and because electricity is more efficient, switching to it as a supply source could roughly halve the global primary energy demand.
uncertain
switching → say → demand
"COP31 comes at a crucial time," the IEA's executive director Fatih Birol told the UN during Climate Week.
"Because … the energy security objectives and the clean energy objectives are closely aligned.
"I have never seen that they are so aligned in the past," said Mr Birol.
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Birol → come → past
Increased urgency as planet warms
The promise of a solution couldn't come soon enough.
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promise → warm → solution
The UN has predicted the planet will exceed 1.5 degrees of pre-industrial warming within the decade, with temperatures rising to at least 1.8 degrees.
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temperatures → predict → degrees
Scientists have repeatedly warned that exceeding that threshold will lead to extreme weather, ecosystem loss, and submersion of small island states like Tuvalu.
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exceeding → warn → Tuvalu
Cities, infrastructure and economies are all vulnerable to the effects of warming, with the potential for irreversible changes to ice sheets, ocean currents and the Amazon rainforest.
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Cities → warm → sheets
Grid bottlenecks grow
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bottlenecks → grow → ?
But if electrification promises a way to avert the climate crisis, there's a way to go before we get there.
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we → promise → crisis
Despite a decline over the last decade, coal remains the largest source of electricity.
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coal → remain → electricity
And any efforts to replace it with low-emissions electricity sources run up against another problem: the grid.
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efforts → replace → problem
Wind and solar farms are being deployed faster than the infrastructure needed to connect and move that electricity, like high-voltage transmission lines.
"The fact that we now have record growth in renewables and that we have record numbers when it comes to sales of EVs means that we have to build out the grid faster," said Professor Rosenow.
asserted
Rosenow → deploy → grid
The IEA estimates more than 80 million kilometres of grid infrastructure, roughly equivalent to the entire global grid, will need to be added or refurbished by 2040.
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kilometres → estimate → 2040
"That's not an indicator that the transition is failing," said Professor Rosenow.
asserted
Rosenow → fail → ?
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
