U.S. President Donald Trump's sometimes bombastic stance towards Brazil has placed him at the center of debate ahead of the country's tightly fought presidential elections in October.
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stance → place → October
Also read | Trump administration proposes 25% tariff to punish Brazil over trade practices
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administration → read → practices
Given Mr. Trump's track record of throwing his weight behind his Latin American allies — like Argentine leader Javier Milei, Colombia's presidential hopeful Abelardo de la Espriella, and Nasry Asfura in Honduras, to name but a few — a similar intervention in Brazil appears likely.
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intervention → give → Brazil
"It can be expected that Brazil will also be the target of a U.S. attempt to influence the elections," given Mr. Trump's past "partisan interventionism," according to Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
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Brazil → expect → Foundation
However, the U.S. leader's influence could be less clear-cut this time around.
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influence → cut → ?
While celebrating his "excellent chemistry" with leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking reelection, Mr. Trump has also called candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, a "smart young man who loves his country."
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who → celebrate → country
Both have visited the White House in recent weeks.
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Both → visit → weeks
Mr. Lula, who has accused Mr. Trump of behaving like an "emperor," praised their solid rapport after the pair's meeting in May.
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who → accuse → May
Also Read: Lula draws the line amid Trump interference in Brazil’s close and tough election
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Lula → read → election
But within days of Mr. Bolsonaro's visit the same month, Mr. Trump endorsed a cause celebre of Brazil's political right by designating the country's two largest drug cartels as terrorist organizations.
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Trump → endorse → organizations
He also announced possible tariff hikes on Brazilian products, much to the displeasure of the Lula administration.
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He → announce → administration
With polls currently projecting a tight second round between Mr. Lula and Mr. Bolsonaro, the right-wing camp is adamant that victory requires a healthy relationship with Washington.
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victory → project → Washington
Mr. Bolsonaro took to social media to celebrate his own role in getting Mr. Trump to designate the so-called Red Command (CV) and First Capital Command (PCC) crime groups as terrorist organizations.
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Trump → take → organizations
"On a trip as a pre-candidate, we did more for Brazil and the safety of Brazilians than the Workers' Party and Mr. Lula did in 17 years in office," he boasted.
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he → do → office
Tens of millions of Brazilians living in working-class areas are highly concerned by organized crime and the violence it generates.
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it → live → crime
"The U.S. measure benefits Flavio and wears down Lula, who has always been against it," pro-Bolsonaro lawmaker Sostenes Cavalcante told AFP.
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Cavalcante → benefit → AFP
Cavalcante views the American leader as a "decisive factor" in the campaign, but said the Trump card must be used prudently.
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card → view → campaign
"We must be very careful, because he has a positive side that benefits us but also a high disapproval rating," he said, alluding to polls showing that Brazilians are divided over the U.S. president.
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Brazilians → have → president
Despite enormous ideological differences, Mr. Lula has managed to keep Mr. Trump on his side — but only sometimes.
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Lula → manage → side
Washington's decision to slap sky-high tariffs on Brazil in 2025 as retaliation for convicting Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a coup marked a sour patch in the pair's relations.
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decision → slap → relations
Most of those tariffs have since disappeared, but the recent proposal to impose 25% tariffs on some Brazilian products for alleged unfair trade practices has once again rankled Brasilia.
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proposal → disappear → Brasilia
Mr. Lula blamed the increased tariffs on Mr. Bolsonaro's whisperings in Washington, calling the right-wing candidate a "traitor" to his own export-reliant country.
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Lula → blame → country
Although Mr. Bolsonaro denies the allegation, "the tariffs canceled out the advantage Flavio had gained from the U.S. decision regarding the PCC and the CV," said Ms. Stuenkel.
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Stuenkel → deny → PCC
Mr. Lula is attempting to negotiate directly with Mr. Trump but says he is being blocked by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American whom the leftist has called a "mortal enemy" of Latin America.
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leftist → attempt → America
Nevertheless, "the Trump-Lula channel is the best thing" the U.S.-Brazil relationship currently has, Bruna Santos, Brazil director at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, told AFP.
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Santos → have → AFP
"Their last meeting is what calmed tempers," she said.
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she → calm → tempers
Both leaders have confirmed their attendance at the G7 summit in France from June 15 to 17, but it remains unknown if they will meet one-on-one during the event.
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they → confirm → event
The Aporia
