Last week, some students in Saudi Arabia were told they should stay at home and attend classes online, due to continued threats from attacks by the Houthi group in neighboring Yemen.
asserted
they → tell → Yemen
But the very next day, they were given the all-clear and allowed to return to school in person.
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they → give → person
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi militia in Yemen seems to have become part of everyday life in Saudi Arabia.
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conflict → seem → Arabia
After a period of comparative calm, the Houthis have been ramping up attacks on the country, starting July, and have fired many missiles and drones over the border.
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Houthis → ramp → border
Over recent weeks, the Houthi militia have also pushed further into Yemen, taking more control of the Yemeni coast and several islands in the Red Sea.
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militia → push → Sea
This means they can oversee maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
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they → mean → Strait
The waterway connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
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waterway → connect → Aden
The renewed Houthi attacks endanger Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia's ambitious project to move the kingdom away from its dependence on oil revenues, which was conceived by Saudi leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
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which → renew → Salman
To make Vision 2030 a reality, Saudi Arabia needs stability — but right now, the outlook is moving in the opposite direction.
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outlook → make → direction
"The escalation in Yemen is drawing the Saudis deeper into the regional war, a war that Saudi Arabia actually wanted to prevent," said Marcus Schneider, who heads the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Regional Peace and Security Project in the Middle East.
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who → draw → East
Impact on world's energy
Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to Houthi attacks, which have already disrupted the so-called East-West pipeline, which runs for over 1,200 kilometers.
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which → disrupt → kilometers
It was being used to transport oil after other routes, such as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, became precarious due to fighting between the United States, Israel and Iran.
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routes → use → States
Houthi attacks disabled the pipeline although reports from a week ago suggest it is being used again.
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it → disable → pipeline
And thanks to the Houthis, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — which means "gate of tears" in English — is also coming under pressure.
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which → mean → pressure
Andrew Leber, a nonresident scholar in the Middle East program of the US think tank, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, calls it a "one-two punch of pipeline attacks and Red Sea seizures."
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Leber → call → attacks
In fact, it may send the Saudis back to the Strait of Hormuz to try to ship their oil, even though that route is still heavily restricted.
uncertain
route → send → oil
Who will help?
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Who → help → ?
It is unlikely that Saudi ally, the US, is going to send help.
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ally → go → help
Washington has said it will support the Saudis with intelligence and reconnaissance, but President Donald Trump appears reluctant to get involved in a direct military campaign against the Houthis.
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Trump → say → Houthis
According to a US-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, this may partially be because the it is feeling the strain of its ongoing campaign against Iran.
"The US military is reportedly facing serious challenges, including shortages of some sophisticated interceptors," the CSIS wrote in a commentary last week.
uncertain
CSIS → accord → commentary
The US Council on Foreign Relations, or CFR, has also written about dwindling stocks of Patriot and interceptor missiles, as well as cruise missiles.
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Council → write → missiles
So the risk of opening another front in its war with Iran, in Yemen, is not a welcome prospect for the US.
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risk → open → US
As it is, US airstrikes are unlikely to resolve the Houthi problem anyway.
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airstrikes → resolve → problem
The CFR writes that to defuse the Houthi threat, a large, coordinated ground operation is needed, especially if forces want to push the Yemeni militia back out of the areas they recently took around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
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they → write → Strait
Despite help from the US and neighboring United Arab Emirates, a Saudi coalition that fought against the Houthis between 2015 and 2022 failed to achieve any kind of decisive victory.
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that → fight → victory
It also demonstrated the limits of Saudi military power.
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It → demonstrate → power
Saudi Arabia possesses modern weapons and spends enormous sums on its armed forces.
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Arabia → possess → forces
But the Houthis don't need to win a conventional war.
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Houthis → need → war
It is enough for them to use missiles and drones to threaten infrastructure and disrupt shipping.
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them → use → shipping
"The Houthis are well-established in Yemen and can withstand considerable blows," Schneider told DW.
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Schneider → establish → DW
"Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, needs stability above all for its 2030 economic vision.
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Arabia → need → vision
Since early 2024, through what is known as Operation Aspides, Europe has been protecting international shipping in the Red Sea.
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Europe → know → Sea
Italy has recently said it intends to secure passage for its own merchant ships with its navy.
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it → say → navy
And a few days ago France said it would send soldiers, radar systems and air defense to the Saudis in order to protect the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the terminus of the East-West pipeline.
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it → say → pipeline
Still, these European initiatives are unlikely to bring about any sort of strategic shift in Yemen.
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initiatives → bring → Yemen
And experts argue Europe is unwilling to accept the political and military cost of a protracted war there.
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Europe → argue → war
"The fact that France has now announced it will provide concrete military assistance has been received very positively in Riyadh," Schneider explained.
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Schneider → announce → Riyadh
"But still the question remains as to whether this can fundamentally alter the military balance."
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this → remain → balance
The recently formed mutual defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey, known as the Mecca alliance, also has its limits.
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pact → form → limits
The military leaders of all three countries have consulted with one another over recent Houthis attacks but Turkey and Pakistan are also reluctant to be drawn into a conflict that would see them confronting Iran directly.
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them → consult → Iran
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
