On Thursday night, Pakistan attacked targets in Afghanistan.
asserted
Pakistan → attack → Afghanistan
The results of that attack are disputed.
asserted
results → dispute → attack
The Taliban, the Islamic fundamentalist nationalist movement that controls Afghanistan, says that between nine and 10 civilians were killed, including women and children.
asserted
civilians → control → women
But Pakistan claims the strike killed 22 militants and destroyed weapons and ammunition depots.
uncertain
strike → claim → weapons
These early October attacks are just the latest escalation in a conflict between the two countries that reignited mid-September, after months of comparative calm.
asserted
that → reignite → calm
The conflict was sparked again after a series of attacks on Pakistani security forces.
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conflict → spark → forces
On September 18, an attack on a police compound in the northwestern city of Kohat resulted in the deaths of 31 people and more than 100 injured.
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100 → result → people
A splinter group belonging to the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, claimed responsibility for the attack in Kohat, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, bordering Afghanistan.
asserted
group → belong → Afghanistan
Pakistan accused Afghanistan of providing the TTP with a safe haven.
asserted
Pakistan → accuse → haven
Afghanistan denies this but clashes at the border and then airstrikes by Pakistan followed.
asserted
clashes → deny → Pakistan
Although it does have close ideological and personnel ties to the Afghan Taliban, it is an independent organization that fights the Pakistani state.
asserted
that → have → state
Many of its fighters sided with the Taliban during that country's long-running insurgency against international and US troops.
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Many → side → troops
This is why, after the Taliban returned to power in 2021, the TTP gained more room and more leverage.
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TTP → return → room
This has meant that Afghanistan — a former ally of Pakistan — has increasingly become a threat to its neighbor.
asserted
Afghanistan → mean → neighbor
Pakistan has asked the Taliban to take action against the TTP, but the close connection between the two make this difficult.
asserted
this → ask → two
"Because of these personal connections and networks, it is extremely difficult for the Afghan Taliban to break away," says Conrad Schetter, director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies, or BICC.
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Schetter → break → Studies
The connections don't mean that the Taliban has any control over the TTP.
asserted
Taliban → mean → TTP
There are certainly historical connections between the two, but Schetter doesn't believe that equals any sort of strong, direct influence.
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that → be → influence
"The Taliban are simply not prepared to take orders from Islamabad," adds Thomas Ruttig, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a think tank working between Kabul and Berlin.
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Ruttig → prepare → Kabul
"They won't let anyone outside interfere."
asserted
anyone → let → ?
This means the Pakistani policy of supporting the Taliban in order to gain influence in Afghanistan hasn't worked.
asserted
policy → mean → Afghanistan
There's also another older conflict that has an impact on the current situation.
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that → be → situation
This involves what is known as the Durand Line, drawn in 1893 by a British diplomat and an Afghan emir to mark spheres of influence between British India and Afghanistan.
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what → involve → India
The current border between Afghanistan and Pakistan follows the Durand Line and also divides an area on both sides, homeland to Pashtuns, who make up the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and second largest in Pakistan.
So the border dispute here isn't just about territory, it's also about identity.
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it → follow → identity
"Ethnic and nationalist elements play a significant role in the conflict," Schetter tells DW.
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Schetter → play → DW
Many Pashtuns still refuse to accept the border that the Durand Line created.
asserted
Line → refuse → that
In Pakistan, the country's long-running rivalry with India also plays a part.
asserted
rivalry → run → part
But India has also strengthened its ties to the Taliban.
asserted
India → strengthen → Taliban
"While Islamabad once viewed Afghanistan as a source of 'strategic depth' in its rivalry with India, it now increasingly views its north-western neighbor as a liability," an analysis by British think tank Chatham House notes.
asserted
analysis → view → House
Pakistan exerts pressure
asserted
Pakistan → exert → pressure
Pakistan still has power over Afghanistan, though.
asserted
Pakistan → have → Afghanistan
As a landlocked country, Afghanistan relies on trade routes through neighboring countries, and Pakistan in particular.
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Afghanistan → rely → countries
Pakistan can use border closures and trade restrictions to exert pressure even as the Taliban regime is trying to reduce dependence on Pakistan and find new economic and political partners.
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regime → use → partners
Trade and security considerations are now becoming tangled.
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considerations → become → ?
Pakistan has held talks with the TTP that were mediated by the Taliban and ceasefires were agreed upon.
asserted
ceasefires → hold → Taliban
Talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan also took place.
asserted
Talks → take → place
But none of the temporary agreements resolved the crucial question of how to prevent attacks on Pakistan from Afghan territory.
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none → resolve → territory
So in parallel with diplomacy, Pakistan has also been relying on economic and political pressure, for example, by closing borders and restricting trade and by sending Afghan refugees back into Afghanistan.
asserted
Pakistan → rely → Afghanistan
An analysis by the US-based Council on Foreign Relations notes that the Taliban are worried that if they crack down on the TTP too hard, they will drive the group towards another extremist militant group, the Islamic State in Khorasan Province or IS-K.
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they → base → Province
This group opposes the Taliban.
asserted
group → oppose → Taliban
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
