When Iceland voted not to reopen accession talks with the EU in August, that was that.
asserted
that → vote → August
Both sides accepted the result, and the conversation moved on to more immediate matters, such as the cost of living, genealogy and whether Emmessis or Kjoris sold the better ice cream.
asserted
Emmessis → accept → cream
In Britain, despite our vastly larger economy, we can’t seem to let the EU go.
asserted
EU → seem → economy
A decade after our referendum a large minority remains stuck in 2016.
asserted
minority → remain → 2016
It is to this minority that Andy Burnham addresses himself when he describes rejoining the single market or customs union or ‘going all the way’ (an oddly coy phrase) as ‘options to be considered’.
asserted
he → address → options
Plot spoiler: Britain is not going to rejoin the EU.
asserted
Britain → go → EU
Yes, polls currently show that voters don’t much like Brexit, but polls currently show that voters don’t much like anything.
asserted
voters → show → anything
By far the biggest advantage Remain enjoyed in 2016 was the status quo bias.
asserted
Remain → enjoy → 2016
Voters are change-averse, and referendums almost always see a swing to the anti-change option during the campaign.
asserted
referendums → see → campaign
A vote to join the European Economic Community in 1972 would have gone against membership; the vote to stay in three years later went in favour.
asserted
vote → join → favour
Burnham knows that a new referendum would consume his government’s energies for years and would almost certainly end in a ‘No’ vote.
asserted
referendum → know → vote
But he also knows that Rejoin is hugely popular among the voters whose support he needs: 79 per cent of Labour supporters, 78 per cent of Lib Dems and 81 per cent of Greens want to go back in.
asserted
cent → know → Greens
Those numbers would not survive an actual referendum, or even the announcement of one.
asserted
numbers → survive → one
The prospect of a vote would make us focus on what is happening in the EU.
asserted
what → make → EU
A tractor carries a clear message - EU No Thanks - at a rally in Reykjavik against reopening Iceland's EU accession negotiations
Andy Burnham and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a meeting on the sidelines of the recent UN General Assembly in New York
All its flaws and misdeeds would again fill our headlines.
asserted
flaws → carry → headlines
We would hear about the economic crisis in Germany, about immigration flows in the Mediterranean, about the lack of democracy and the high-handed treatment of dissident states.
asserted
We → hear → states
And we would hear – oh, boy, would we hear – about the sleaze and corruption.
asserted
we → hear → sleaze
How many Britons are even aware of the 2022 banknotes scandal, which saw MEPs arrested after Belgian police found over a million euros in their homes, apparently to be distributed as bribes on behalf of Arab governments?
asserted
police → see → governments
Britain had left, so a story that would have dominated our news for weeks was of little concern.
asserted
that → leave → concern
If a new referendum was in prospect, such stories would come rushing back.
asserted
stories → come → prospect
I suspect the PM knows all this.
asserted
PM → suspect → this
But saying so would dash his plan to lead a united Left into the next election against a divided Right – the opposite of what has happened at every poll since the 1981 Labour split.
asserted
what → say → split
Burnham has to keep the Euro-dream alive.
asserted
Burnham → have → dream
He might even, depending on the opinion polls, put rejoining in his next manifesto.
uncertain
He → depend → manifesto
There is no constitutional objection to a political party contesting an election on a pro-EU manifesto.
asserted
party → be → manifesto
The trouble is that it will reopen a lot of arguments and stir up a lot of acrimony to no useful end.
asserted
it → reopen → end
Quite apart from reviving the nasty culture wars that followed the 2016 poll, the prospect of renewed membership would be a distraction from necessary economic reforms.
asserted
prospect → revive → reforms
Efforts that should go into reducing the benefits bill, facilitating the building of new infrastructure or making the NHS more patient-friendly would be frittered away on referendum preparations.
asserted
that → go → preparations
Worse, the possibility of EU membership would halt several reforms.
asserted
possibility → halt → reforms
Britain is currently third in the world when it comes to developing AI – a long way behind the US and China, it is true, but third nonetheless.
asserted
it → come → US
That would end if we had to adopt the EU’s restrictions on the technology.
asserted
we → end → technology
Flags fly at an anti-Brexit rally in London in March 2017, less than a year after the vote
The same is true of countless other areas where we have diverged, from targeted agricultural support to gene editing, from lifting the cap on bankers’ bonuses to freeports.
asserted
we → fly → freeports
Rejoining would mean big changes, such as massive budget contributions, and small, irritating ones, such as lowering the £100 contactless limit to ¤50.
asserted
Rejoining → rejoin → ¤50
It would also, ironically, require Labour to stop taxing school fees.
asserted
It → require → fees
Being in the EU customs union – which transfers sovereignty over trade policy to Brussels – would mean scrapping every deal we have signed since we left: Australia, India, Japan, the Gulf states, the lot.
asserted
we → transfer → deal
At a time when the Pacific trade nexus, the CPTPP, is growing, and when countries from Indonesia to Costa Rica, from Taiwan to Ecuador, are applying to join Britain in it, EU membership would force us to quit.
asserted
membership → grow → us
We would not actually have to join to suffer these malign effects.
asserted
We → have → effects
The very prospect of re-entry would put a freeze on any useful developments.
asserted
prospect → put → developments
Who would want to join the CPTPP until they knew the full terms – ie, whether Britain was still there?
asserted
Britain → want → terms
Who would invest in technology for precision plant breeding when it might be outlawed?
uncertain
it → invest → breeding
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
