- Published
When Vladimir Putin arrived to address Russia's parliament on Wednesday, a warm welcome was guaranteed.
asserted
welcome → publish → Wednesday
"The Special Election Operation", as one Russian newspaper dubbed last month's legislative vote, has produced a State Duma even more pro-Putin than anything before it.
asserted
newspaper → dub → it
The ruling party, United Russia, now has more MPs than ever.
asserted
party → rule → MPs
It allows the Kremlin to claim it has been handed a huge mandate from the Russian people.
uncertain
it → allow → people
How will Putin use it?
Are there any signs he is prepared to halt what he calls the special military operation?
asserted
he → use → what
Or should we brace for further escalation in Ukraine and in tensions with Europe?
asserted
we → brace → Europe
On Thursday I'll be watching to see whether Russia's leader sheds light on his plans during an appearance at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow.
asserted
leader → watch → Moscow
Traditionally the president's speech at this annual foreign policy forum provides insight into Putin's world view.
asserted
speech → provide → view
Right now, everything points to Putin continuing Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: despite his country's huge battlefield losses to date and the damage being done to Russia's economy.
asserted
Putin → point → economy
Putin's speeches and statements suggest he remains confident that Russia can secure a military victory.
asserted
Russia → suggest → victory
Judging by what is being reported in Russian media, Moscow is encouraged by the shortage of air defence missiles in Ukraine, as well as the expectation that Russian strikes this winter will increase pressure on Ukrainians.
asserted
strikes → judge → Ukrainians
Kyiv has spoken of its difficulty in shooting down Russia's ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones, which have been targeting Ukraine every day.
asserted
which → speak → Ukraine
The Kremlin has made no secret of the fact it wants European states to slash their military and financial backing for Ukraine: the kind of support Moscow says is prolonging the war - or, rather, getting in the way of a Russian victory.
asserted
Moscow → make → victory
To achieve this, Western officials believe Russia has been sending not so subtle signals.
asserted
Russia → achieve → signals
They accuse Moscow of waging an escalating hybrid war on European countries through cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage, and Russian drones violating European airspace.
asserted
They → accuse → airspace
In Germany, a drone carrying an explosive device was found close to Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport.
asserted
drone → carry → airport
This week I asked Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, does he admit that his country is waging a hybrid war against European countries?
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country → ask → countries
"Do you mean when we destroy drones and missiles that Britain and continental Europe are supplying Ukraine with, and which are used to attack us?" Lavrov replied.
asserted
Lavrov → mean → us
"If you admit your weapons are being used to strike us and we destroy them, call it whatever you want.
asserted
you → admit → whatever
But I have no doubt this is a war Europe is waging against us.
asserted
Europe → have → us
We've been saying so for a long time."
That, indeed, has been the official Russian stance for some time: that what is happening in Ukraine amounts to a European war on Russia.
asserted
happening → say → Russia
It is a narrative that skips over the fact that in 2022 it was the Kremlin that launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that Russia continues to wage war there.
asserted
Russia → skip → war
How far would Russia go to sever European support for Kyiv?
asserted
Russia → go → Kyiv
Is Moscow, for example, actively preparing to initiate military conflict in Europe with a Nato member state?
asserted
Moscow → prepare → state
That seems unlikely.
asserted
That → seem → ?
After more than four-and-a-half years of war Russia's army has not yet managed to occupy the whole of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, right next door to Russia.
asserted
army → manage → Russia
Fighting Europe may not be the plan, but freaking it out, to reduce support for Kyiv, could well be the intention.
uncertain
freaking → fight → Kyiv
"If they continue this war, a European war with American help, against Russia, on Ukrainian territory, sooner or later we'll feel the need to escalate," warns prominent foreign policy strategist Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia's Council for Foreign and Defence Policy.
asserted
Karaganov → continue → Policy
"According to my scenarios, the first series of blows will be conventional," he told me.
uncertain
he → accord → me
"But if Europe does not surrender, unfortunately, we will have to go nuclear.
asserted
we → surrender → ?
"
But if Russia went nuclear there would be a response from Europe, and nothing would be left of Russia, I suggest.
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I → go → Russia
"No, there will be no response from Europe," said Karaganov.
asserted
Karaganov → say → Europe
"What, Britain will attack Russia with nuclear weapons?
asserted
Britain → attack → weapons
I hope you're not that crazy.
asserted
you → hope → ?
I asked him if he agreed the last four-and-a-half years had been disastrous for Russia, in terms of casualties and the worsening security and economic situation.
asserted
years → ask → casualties
"We've lost a lot of people, yes," he admitted,
asserted
he → lose → people
"and I criticise my government for not being rough enough.
asserted
I → criticise → government
But now we are getting rough enough in Ukraine.
asserted
we → get → Ukraine
We're doing away with Ukraine as a viable state."
asserted
We → do → state
If "doing away with Ukraine as a viable state" is Moscow's goal, it is hard to imagine the war ending soon.
asserted
war → do → state
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
