The battle for control of Congress is entering its final sprint, with Republicans and Democrats just over a month away from learning who will wield power for the final two years of President Donald Trump's presidency.
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who → enter → presidency
House Democrats lead House Republicans in the most recent Fox News Power Rankings, with the left projected to win 215 seats in the lower chamber compared to 201 for the GOP.
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left → lead → GOP
But 19 seats are still ranked as toss-ups, meaning the final majority is still anyone's to claim.
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majority → rank → ups
One issue that's given Republicans a glimmer of hope in an otherwise bleak cycle is the far-left insurgency that's gripped the Democratic Party.
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that → give → Party
Several key victories by socialist candidates could threaten to push the party further left than most Americans are, a warning that GOP candidates across the country have shared.
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candidates → threaten → country
Below is a list of 10 House districts currently held by Democrats where Republicans could see key victories that help them retain control.
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them → hold → control
Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., is running for re-election in a congressional district that's been redrawn to significantly favor Republicans.
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that → run → Republicans
A 2023 Supreme Court decision ordered Alabama to create a second Black opportunity district ahead of the 2024 election, meaning Black voters there would have meaningful sway in the general election.
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voters → order → election
The resulting boundaries helped Figures win his seat, which was previously held by Rep. Barry Moore, R-Ala., who ran in a neighboring district that cycle.
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who → result → district
But the Supreme Court's ruling in Louisiana v. Callais earlier this year significantly curbed the Voting Rights Act's enforcement of racial considerations in congressional maps, paving the way for southern states to alter district boundaries that were drawn to give minorities more representation.
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that → curb → representation
That hit Figures particularly hard.
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That → hit → Figures
The new district would have voted for President Donald Trump by roughly 14% in 2024, according to 270ToWin.
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district → vote → 270ToWin
Both Fox News Power Rankings and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report (CPR) rate it as "likely Republican."
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Rankings → rate → Republican
Florida's 9th Congressional District
Florida lawmakers also altered their state's map ahead of November, aimed at giving Republicans a slight edge in the already-red state.
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lawmakers → alter → state
Rep. Darren Soto, D-Fla., who is running for a sixth term representing his district, was one of the Democrats whose seat was hit the hardest.
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seat → run → Democrats
His newly redrawn district voted for Trump by nearly 18%, 270ToWin's analysis states.
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analysis → redrawn → %
Fox News Power Rankings rates it as "lean Republican" while CPR ranks the seat as a "likely" Republican pickup.
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CPR → rat → pickup
Florida's 14th Congressional District
The Tampa-area House seat held by Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., was also among the blue seats redrawn by the Sunshine State's government to make it more competitive for Republicans.
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it → hold → Republicans
The longtime moderate Democrat has served in Congress since 2007 and represented her current district since 2013.
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Democrat → serve → 2013
She's facing off against a former Florida state lawmaker, Republican Mike Beltran, who also has name recognition in the area.
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who → face → area
Under its new lines, which remove more Democrat-leaning places around the city of St. Petersburg in favor of more rural and suburban areas in the south and east, Trump would have won the district by 10.5% in 2024, according to 270ToWin.
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Trump → remove → 270ToWin
Both Fox News Power Rankings and CPR rate it a "toss-up," meaning it's anyone's game.
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it → rate → it
Republicans redrew Florida's 22nd Congressional District in a way that could have pitted incumbent Reps. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., against each other in a likely expensive and bruising primary.
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that → redrew → primary
But both opted to run in other districts, leaving the seat currently occupied by retiring Rep. Lois Frankel, D-Fla., as a potential opportunity for both parties.
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both → opt → parties
Under Florida's new map, 270ToWin projects Trump would have won the district by roughly 10% in 2024.
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Trump → project → 2024
Democrat Pia Dandiya, a political newcomer, is running against Republican businessman and Marine Casey Askar.
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Dandiya → run → Askar
Both Fox News and CPR rank the district a "toss-up."
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News → rank → district
Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., is running in Florida's 25th Congressional District after the GOP's aforementioned redistricting play, a seat that on paper was amended to give Republicans a slight edge.
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that → run → edge
Redistricting shifted the seat from one that ex-Vice President Kamala Harris won by single digits to one that Trump would have won by nearly 10 points.
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Trump → shift → points
Moskowitz has long touted his bipartisan work in Congress and as Florida's emergency management director under Gov. Ron DeSantis, giving Democrats some confidence that he could overcome the political shift in Republicans' favor.
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he → tout → favor
Fox News' latest projections have the seat leaning Democrat, while CPR ranks it a "toss-up."
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CPR → have → it
Rep. Cleo Fields, D-La., is retiring at the end of this year, making his seat another open race.
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seat → retire → year
But the same 2023 and 2026 Supreme Court decisions that affected Figures in Alabama are at play in the Bayou State this year.
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that → affect → State
After the most recent decision rolling back the Voting Rights Act, Republicans were able to redraw the 6th district in a way that diluted the Black population, who primarily voted Democrat in 2024, to factor in more red-leaning areas.
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who → roll → areas
Because of the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this year, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry signed legislation delaying the state’s House primary races to Nov. 3 and the general election to Dec. 12.
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Landry → sign → Dec.
Both Fox News’ and CPR’s rankings project the seat to fall into Republican hands.
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seat → project → hands
The retirement of moderate Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, has opened up a rare opportunity for a GOP pickup in the American Northeast.
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retirement → open → Northeast
Golden, who is known for frequently breaking from his own party on key issues like immigration and tariffs, represents a district that Trump won by 9% in 2024, according to 270ToWin.
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Trump → know → 270ToWin
Republicans have a particularly strong candidate in that open race, former Gov. Paul LePage.
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Republicans → have → race
Fox News rates the district a "toss-up," while CPR projects it as a likely Republican victory.
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CPR → rat → victory
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
