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The polls are lying: Why the Republicans are about to sweep the midterm elections

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Cite

Levin, M. (2026, October 3). The polls are lying: Why the Republicans are about to sweep the midterm elections. Washington Examiner. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/op-eds/4750477/republicans-sweep-midterm-elections-prediction-lying-polls/

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Washington Examiner · collected 2026-10-03 · by Michael Levin

Quick Summary

This op-ed argues that Republicans are likely to win big in the upcoming midterm elections due to a disconnect between mainstream America's political views and those of the current Democratic Party leadership, which is perceived as moving too far left on issues such as socialism and antisemitism. The author claims that Democrats' focus on coastal elite concerns will lose them support from flyover country voters who prefer traditional values and security. Republicans are expected to spend heavily to highlight these differences before Election Day.
Written by AI on 2026-10-03, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Michael Levin, writing in the Washington Examiner, predicts a significant Republican victory in the upcoming midterm elections, asserting that Republicans will secure control over both the House and Senate. According to Levin's analysis, Americans lean politically right of center, while the Democratic Party has become increasingly associated with socialism due to figures like Bernie Sanders. He claims polls are misleading as they do not reflect voters' current opinions before extensive election spending by Republicans. Levin argues that the latter will spend approximately half a billion dollars on political advertisements highlighting the unpopular affiliations and policies of Democrats, thereby swaying undecided voters toward Republican candidates.

Written for “Midterm Elections Predictions” on 2026-10-30, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Midterm Elections Predictions
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly right and hedges 14% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Semafor
Hedges 0 of 5 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss overall predictions for the upcoming midterm elections but describe different perspectives and analyses of the election outcomes, not a single specific incident.”
Fox News
⚖️ Leans right further left than this Hedges 10 of 58 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss general predictions for the upcoming midterm elections but describe different perspectives and analyses of potential outcomes.”
The Bulwark
Hedges 0 of 11 claims
“The articles discuss different perspectives on the political environment for the upcoming midterm elections; one focuses on swing voters potentially considering voting Democrat, while the other predicts a Republican sweep.”
Fox News
⚖️ Leans strongly right Hedges 7 of 31 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different perspectives on upcoming midterm election outcomes and do not describe the same specific incident or time.”
Semafor
⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 5 of 53 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of political analysis and prediction for the midterm elections, not a single specific incident.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 2 of 27 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different perspectives and predictions regarding upcoming midterm elections but do not describe a single specific incident or occurrence.”
New York Post
Hedges 3 of 37 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Republican prospects in the midterms with distinct focuses and timelines.”
The Bulwark
⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 0 of 7 claims
“Article A predicts Republican success based on general political sentiments, while Article B reports on a specific poll showing Democratic strength in traditionally red states.”
CBS News
Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different predictions about election outcomes, with Article A predicting a Republican sweep and Article B indicating a Democratic advantage.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
42
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
14%
6 of 42 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans strongly right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
70/100
Washington Examiner's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-03 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Washington Examiner · 3800 article(s) · 7 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 7 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Michael Levin
8 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Clip and save this op-ed, because I may be the only person in the free world predicting that in the midterm elections next month, the Republicans are going to win and win big.
🔮 The U.N. was founded in an era of post-World War II optimism, but it didn’t take long before the Soviets and the Chinese communists found a massive constituency of “non-aligned” countries who could be counted on to vote against the U.S. at every turn.
🔮 A seminal moment in my life came when I was 17 and I asked a construction worker how long it would be until the subway project he was working on would be completed.
🔮 One of the tools of trial lawyers is to ask a jury, “How much would you be willing to pay per hour not to be experiencing the pain and suffering of my client, who was injured in that terrible accident?”
2026-09-25 · assertive framing · Why $4 gas is the bargain of a lifetime
🔮 Socialists, who likely overlap with urban bicyclists, may end up repealing the laws of free enterprise and private property.
🔮 It’s not really a speech he’s likely to give, but it would be awesome nonetheless if he did.
🔮 Zoeller thought it would be hilarious if Woods served fried chicken and collard greens.
Also by Michael Levin
Why $4 gas is the bargain of a lifetime
2026-09-25 · Washington Examiner
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 8 articles by Michael Levin →

Topics

Americans Democrats Israel Republicans the Democratic Party

Subjects

Democrats NORP · 10× Americans NORP · 6× the Democratic Party ORG · 4× Iran GPE · 2× Israel GPE · 2× Republicans NORP · 2× Bernie Sanders PERSON · 1× House ORG · 1× Senate ORG · 1× Vermont GPE · 1×

Narrative

Instead, they would have to kiss the rings of empty-headed party “leaders” such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), and swear fealty to ideas they know can’t work.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-03
🔮 Clip and save this op-ed, because I may be the only person in the free world predicting that in the midterm elections next month, the Republicans are going to win and win big.
2026-10-03 · Washington Examiner
The polls are lying: Why the Republicans are about to sweep the midterm elections · assertive framing

Claims (42 extracted, 6 hedged)

Clip and save this op-ed, because I may be the only person in the free world predicting that in the midterm elections next month, the Republicans are going to win and win big. uncertain
Republicans → clip → elections
They’re going to hold both the House and the Senate, and they’ll even increase their margins in both chambers. asserted
they → go → chambers
Here’s why. asserted
Here → ’ → ?
Americans are sane and, as a whole, politically located slightly to the right of center. asserted
Americans → locate → center
That’s a million miles from where the Democratic Party positions itself these days. asserted
Party → ’ → itself
The polls taken thus far represent the opinions of people who, by and large, don’t focus on elections until a few weeks before they vote. asserted
they → take → weeks
Between now and Election Day, the Republicans are going to spend half a billion dollars reminding people who the Democrats are, and worse, whom they’re in bed with. asserted
they → go → bed
Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont caucuses with the Democrats, but technically, he’s an independent. asserted
he → caucus → Democrats
He and his ilk have attached themselves like leeches to the Democratic Party, sucking the life out of it and terrifying mainstream Democrats into silence. asserted
He → attach → silence
Former President Barack Obama sought to close the borders. asserted
Obama → seek → borders
Former President Bill Clinton forced millions of people on welfare to get jobs. asserted
Clinton → force → jobs
None of them could take those positions today in today’s Democratic Party. uncertain
None → take → Party
Instead, they would have to kiss the rings of empty-headed party “leaders” such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), and swear fealty to ideas they know can’t work. asserted
they → have → ideas
They have grown impatient with a Democratic Party relentlessly focused on issues that resonate with coastal elites but bewilder people in flyover country. asserted
that → grow → country
Ocasio-Cortez may laughingly dismiss what she now calls “Woke 1,” but nobody thinks there was anything funny about defunding (and demoralizing) the police, decriminalizing offenses, reopening the borders, spending billions to combat nonexistent climate change, race-based preferences, boys in girls’ bathrooms, and boys on girls’ teams. uncertain
nobody → dismiss → teams
The priorities of Democrats may have shifted, but small-town America doesn’t appreciate antisemitism, socialism, or shooting people with whom you disagree. uncertain
you → shift → whom
Most Americans find the Democrats’ new obsessions just as appalling as they did the cultural issues that cost the party the 2024 presidential election. asserted
that → find → election
Most Americans have not forgotten that Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East. asserted
Israel → forget → East
They also don’t understand why Democrats instead view Israel as the sole source of evil on the planet when there are truly bad actors everywhere. asserted
Democrats → understand → planet
This anti-Jewish obsession of the Democrats repels most thinking people. asserted
obsession → repel → people
Commentators Hasan Piker, Nick Fuentes, and Candace Owens have built massive followings on hatred, but hatred isn’t the American way. asserted
hatred → build → hatred
Most Americans disapprove of the Democrats for cowering in fear of these despicable podcasters. asserted
Americans → disapprove → podcasters
Americans know that the Democratic Party has no real agenda other than “We hate Trump.” asserted
We → know → Trump
They know that a Democratic-controlled House of Representatives will spend all its time and energy impeaching the president, his Cabinet, and probably their children and pets, instead of legislating. asserted
House → know → president
But most people can see beyond the cost of unleaded to recognize that only this president has the guts to eliminate the world’s most murderous terrorist regime. asserted
president → see → regime
Americans also grasp that, beyond the price of gas, the economy is strong. asserted
economy → grasp → gas
Manufacturing is increasing. asserted
Manufacturing → increase → ?
We’re no longer letting other countries dump cheap goods into our economy. asserted
countries → let → economy
The Democrats love to pretend that the world beyond our borders doesn’t even exist. asserted
world → love → borders
They don’t recognize that Russia, China, Iran, and Qatar have interests very different from ours. asserted
Russia → recognize → ours
They only want to focus on domestic issues. asserted
They → want → issues
Americans prefer a government that keeps the world’s bad actors in check. asserted
that → prefer → check
Finally, the Democrats have lost much of their ability to commit election fraud. asserted
Democrats → lose → fraud
It’s harder today to get away with ballot harvesting and illegal immigrants voting. asserted
immigrants → ’ → harvesting
This means that the Democrats would have to win the midterm elections fair and square. asserted
Democrats → mean → elections
This terrifies them, which is why they’ve worked so hard to keep the Senate from passing laws that would require ID at the polls. asserted
that → terrify → polls
Put it all together, and you’ll see an electorate quietly putting the Democratic/socialist party into the grave. asserted
electorate → put → grave
The rout will be so massive that the Democrats will spend the next two years fighting over what remains of their party instead of uniting behind an electable 2028 presidential candidate. asserted
what → spend → candidate
You might even see a new political party emerge from the rubble. uncertain
party → see → rubble
So that’s why I say clip and save this, because no one else is predicting a red wave come November. asserted
one → ’ → wave
…and 2 more, not listed.
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