The Aporia · Oil Risk Premiums Are BACK! 🤯

Oil Risk Premiums Are BACK! 🤯

Read the original at The Bulwark ↗

Cite

APA MLA Chicago

Last, J. V. (2026, October 1). Oil Risk Premiums Are BACK! 🤯. The Bulwark. https://www.thebulwark.com/p/oil-risk-premiums-are-back-iran-war-trump-reserves-treasury

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Quick Summary

This article discusses the resurgence of risk premiums in oil pricing and their impact on the bond market, arguing that these factors are crucial for understanding current economic conditions and political dynamics leading up to the U.S. midterm elections. The author poses questions about why oil prices remained stable during conflicts despite supply disruptions and contrasts this with current higher-than-expected prices, emphasizing the importance of risk premiums in shaping financial markets and influencing broader political outcomes.

Written by AI on 2026-10-01, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Jonathan V. Last from The Bulwark discusses the current state of oil prices in relation to geopolitical tensions, specifically focusing on Iran and Venezuela. Last questions why oil prices did not significantly increase during the Iran war when the Strait of Hormuz was fully closed but are now high despite reduced oil flows through the strait. He argues that understanding risk premiums is crucial for grasping how these factors influence both oil prices and mortgage rates, which in turn affect political dynamics ahead of the midterms. Last emphasizes the importance of this topic despite its technical nature, stating it will shape American life over the next year.

Written for “Oil Prices Increase” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Global bond sell-off intensifies, as UK long-term borrowing costs pass 6% Different event

The Guardian

Hedges 1 of 19 claims Outlet record 66/100

“Article A discusses the intensification of global bond sell-off due to US deficit fears and UK borrowing costs, while Article B focuses on oil risk premiums and their impact on both oil prices and mortgage rates.”

How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

Uncertain

0 of 18 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

Leaning

not political

takes no side on a contested political question

Publisher signals

not measured

these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count

Outlets on this story

Economy/Business

Same framing elsewhere

articles that frame the event the way this one does

Analyzed 2026-10-01 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Bulwark · 563 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected

No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Jonathan V. Last

34 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction

🔮 Maybe we do!

2026-10-27 · assertive framing · Nationalize SpaceX

🔮 1. Forecasts We’re eight days out from Election Day.

2026-10-26 · assertive framing · Who’s Right? The Polls or the Vibes?

🔮 If you have questions for Tim, Sarah and JVL, send them to nextlevel@thebulwark.com and they may answer them on an upcoming episode of TNL.

2026-10-23 · assertive framing · The Worst Person in the World

🔮 1. Asymmetry Joe Manchin will be in Maine tomorrow campaigning for Susan Collins.

2026-10-20 · assertive framing · F*ck Joe Manchin

🔮 Trump could just move her over to the Shield of the Americas, because one of the fake jobs at that fake organization just opened up.

2026-10-16 · assertive framing · The Trump Administration Is Run on Kink

🔮 If you have questions for Tim, Sarah and JVL, send them to nextlevel@thebulwark.com and they may answer them on an upcoming episode of TNL.

2026-10-16 · assertive framing · So Many Bad Things

🔮 Texas might get a Democratic senator.

2026-10-07 · assertive framing · Susan Collins Is the Living Worst

🔮 Will Sommer joins Sarah and JVL for a wild, wild show.

2026-10-07 · assertive framing · MAGA’s Racism is Blowing Up Its Own Coalition

🔮 Every once in a while a “journalist” will jump from the press side into a comms role in a presidential administration.

2026-10-06 · assertive framing · The Propagandist in the Press Pool

🔮 Bulwark LIVE: Charlotte featuring Pete Buttigieg & The Gang—will be live streamed on Sunday, October 18 starting at 7pm EDT.

2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Tale of Two Interviews

Also by Jonathan V. Last

Trump’s Safe Space for Strongmen

2026-10-28 · The Bulwark

Nationalize SpaceX

2026-10-27 · The Bulwark

Who’s Right? The Polls or the Vibes?

2026-10-26 · The Bulwark

The Worst Person in the World

2026-10-23 · The Bulwark

Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 34 articles by Jonathan V. Last →

Topics

American Bulwark+ to The Bulwark Venezuela the Iran war

Subjects

American NORP · 1× Bulwark+ to ORG · 1× Catherine Rampell PERSON · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Pete Hegseth PERSON · 1× The Bulwark ORG · 1× Tobias Fünke PERSON · 1× Venezuela GPE · 1×

Narrative

So let’s start with a pair of questions: Why didn’t the price of oil ever get really bad during the Iran war, when the Strait of Hormuz was fully closed? Why isn’t the price of oil lower today, now that oil flows through the strait are somewhere between 50 and 80 percent of what they were before the war? Yes, it’s boring.

framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-01

2026-10-01 · The Bulwark

Oil Risk Premiums Are BACK! 🤯 · assertive framing

Claims (18 extracted, 0 hedged)

I know what kind of candy my audience wants and today I’m here to give it to you: Some HOT TALK about risk premiums and the bond market. asserted

I → know → premiums

Can you feel the excitement?!? asserted

you → feel → excitement

Look: I understand. asserted

I → look → ?

We’re one month from the midterms. asserted

We → ’re → midterms

Donald Trump is stealing money, oil, and gold from Venezuela while using taxpayer dollars to run campaign ads. asserted

Trump → steal → ads

Pete Hegseth is doing Tobias Fünke-style The Man Inside Me confessionals. asserted

Hegseth → do → confessionals

But here’s my pitch: This risk premium stuff is driving both the price of oil and mortgage rates—which means that it is absolutely driving the political dynamic that’s going to determine the election results and set us on the course for the next year of American life. asserted

that → ’ → life

It’s really important. asserted

It → ’ → ?

This newsletter is about helping you to see around corners. asserted

you → help → corners

And this is how we do it. asserted

we → do → it

it → let → war

Yes, it’s technical. asserted

it → ’ → ?

But also, it’s really important. asserted

it → ’ → ?

If you regret it, you can always cancel. asserted

you → regret → it

(But you’re not going to regret it.) asserted

you → go → it

Join Bulwark+ to unlock the rest Become a paying member of The Bulwark to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. asserted

Join → join → post

A subscription gets you: - Unlimited access to articles and newsletters including The Triad by JVL and Receipts by Catherine Rampell. - Ad-free editions of our shows (with transcripts) and member-only shows like The Secret Podcast. - Plus community chats and commenting features. asserted

subscription → get → chats

Your support helps keep our work sustainable and available to those who cannot afford a membership. asserted

who → help → membership