Economic concerns and party loyalty are key factors shaping Iowa’s U.S. Senate matchup.
asserted
concerns → shape → matchup
A Fox News statewide survey of Iowa likely voters finds Democrat Josh Turek with a two-point edge over Republican Ashley Hinson, 49% to 47%, well within the margin of error.
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survey → find → error
Among registered voters, Turek is ahead by 4 points, 50% to 46%.
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Turek → register → points
That also falls within the range of sampling error and has been unchanged since June.
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That → fall → June
The analysis below is based on likely voter results.
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analysis → base → results
Independents favor Turek by two-to-one, and 10% of Republicans back him.
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% → favor → him
It’s Iowa’s partisan structure that keeps the race tight, as more voters identify as Republicans than Democrats.
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voters → ’ → Democrats
Iowa voters are split on control of the Senate: 49% prefer Democratic control and 48% favor Republican.
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% → split → Republican
With those numbers nearly matching the Senate matchup, both candidates are performing close to their party’s ceiling.
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candidates → match → ceiling
Turek is preferred by 11 points among women, 16 points in the suburbs, 17 points among voters with a college degree, and 32 points among independents.
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Turek → prefer → independents
Economic pressure influences the contest.
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pressure → influence → contest
In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, 3 in 10 Iowans described their families as falling behind financially.
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Iowans → describe → families
That share has risen to 4 in 10 today, and they back Turek by a 38-point margin.
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they → rise → margin
Meanwhile, those holding steady (45%) and getting ahead (13%) favor Hinson (by 14 and 53 points respectively).
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those → hold → points
In addition, 6 in 10 say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote decision.
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cost → say → decision
That outpaces other top issues, like President Donald Trump (43% extremely), immigration (39% extremely), and AI technology (27% extremely).
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That → outpace → Trump
Turek has the advantage among voters who say the cost of living, Trump, and AI technology are each extremely important to their vote, while voters prioritizing immigration favor Hinson.
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voters → have → Hinson
Trump won Iowa with nearly 56% of the vote in 2024.
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Trump → win → 2024
Today, that’s how many Iowa voters disapprove of his job performance as president (57%), while far fewer, 42%, approve.
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fewer → ’ → president
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The president’s ratings are only part of Hinson’s challenge.
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ratings → click → challenge
While 42% view her positively, 50% have an unfavorable view, including nearly 4 in 10 who are "strongly" unfavorable.
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who → view → 10
By a 9-point margin, more voters are concerned Hinson is too close to Trump than are worried Turek’s views are too liberal (52% vs. 43%).
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views → concern → Trump
Among those "extremely" concerned, that gap widens to 14 points: 36% say Hinson is too tied to Trump, while 22% say Turek is too liberal.
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Turek → concern → Trump
More of Turek’s backers are certain of their choice: 88% are committed to him compared to 77% for Hinson
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% → compare → Hinson
Twice as many Hinson supporters say they might change their mind (20% vs. 10%).
uncertain
they → say → mind
"Recent history and the state’s partisan makeup suggest Hinson can pull this out," says GOP pollster Daron Shaw, who works on the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
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who → suggest → Anderson
"But the warning signs are clear: Iowa Republicans seem ambivalent, independents prefer Turek, and even her supporters say they aren’t sure.
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they → seem → Turek
Iowa hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in 18 years (when Sen. Tom Harkin won his final term), and it's been 20 years since they elected a Democrat as governor.
In the Iowa governor’s contest, Democrat Rob Sand outperforms Republican Zach Lahn among likely voters by 53-44%.
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Sand → elect → %
Sand’s lead comes not only from getting the support of nearly all Democrats (97%), but also 14% of Republicans and 66% of independents (vs. 16% of independents for Lahn).
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lead → come → Lahn
Plus, 11% of voters backing Hinson for Senate switched parties to support Sand for governor.
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% → back → governor
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,204 Iowa registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.
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Poll → conduct → file
Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (183) and cellphones (733) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (288).
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Respondents → speak → message
Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,008 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
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it → base → voters
In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results.
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wording → influence → results
Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
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Sources → develop → Survey
Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.
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demographics → apply → population
Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status.
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that → base → election
Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
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size → show → subgroups
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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Balara → contribute → report
The Aporia
