Even the leaves were turning Liberal red in Knowlton, Que., on the final week of the provincial election campaign, as Frédéric Beauchemin went door-knocking in his riding.
asserted
Beauchemin → turn → riding
Good omens seemed to be stacking up for the Quebec Liberal Party candidate in Brome–Missisquoi.
asserted
omens → seem → Missisquoi
Voter after voter told Mr. Beauchemin they were tired of the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec and totally opposed to the independence referendum promised by the Parti Québécois.
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they → tell → Québécois
He should have been winning by default.
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He → win → default
The Quebec Liberals (PLQ) represent change in a change election, federalism in a federalist climate, and economic credentials in an economic crisis.
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Liberals → represent → crisis
Yet, despite all their advantages on paper, the PLQ are locked in a close three-way race in Brome–Missisquoi.
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PLQ → lock → Missisquoi
The venerable old party looks poised to form Opposition again after being stuck in neutral during the campaign for the Oct. 5 election.
asserted
party → poise → election
This week, Mr. Beauchemin was frantically trying to get out the vote with reinforcements from Montreal; another Liberal candidate in the safe seat of D’Arcy-McGee, Elisabeth Prass, drove down to help on Tuesday because “she feels bad for me,” Mr. Beauchemin half-joked.
asserted
Beauchemin → try → me
On Thursday, party Leader Charles Milliard came to lend a hand.
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Milliard → come → hand
What ails Quebec’s natural governing party has become the subject of a thousand op-eds in the province, but with the separatist PQ likely to form government, the woes of the provincial Liberals have become Canada’s problem, too.
asserted
woes → ail → Liberals
The province’s voice for federalism is struggling to be heard.
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voice → struggle → federalism
The pitfalls are commonly dated to the government of Philippe Couillard, a courtly white-haired neurosurgeon who came to power in 2014.
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who → date → 2014
He left the province with a budget surplus, but was seen by nationalist voters as too pro-Canadian and multiculturalist, without an aggressive agenda for strengthening the French language.
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He → leave → language
He was defeated in 2018 by François Legault and the CAQ, who presented themselves as defenders of Quebec identity, passing laws restricting the use of English and banning religious symbols for some public sector workers.
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who → defeat → workers
The PLQ opposed both.
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PLQ → oppose → both
But the laws were popular, and the party’s opposition hurt it badly among the French-speaking majority.
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opposition → hurt → majority
The most recent Léger poll had the party supported by just 14 per cent of francophones, who naturally decide elections in Quebec.
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who → have → Quebec
“The francophone vote doesn’t recognize itself in the Liberal Party of Quebec, notably because of the question of identity,” said Louis Aucoin, a communications strategist and former Bloc Québécois staffer.
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Aucoin → recognize → identity
When former federal cabinet minister Pablo Rodriguez became the PLQ leader last year, he had name recognition and experience in his favour.
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he → become → favour
But within six months of assuming the post, he resigned amidst a financing scandal surrounding his leadership campaign.
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he → assume → campaign
Mr. Rodriguez maintains he did nothing wrong, and the results of multiple provincial investigations are outstanding, but the damage was done.
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damage → maintain → investigations
For a party that struggled with allegations of corrupt campaign financing as recently as the premiership of Jean Charest in the 2010s, the optics were especially bad.
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optics → struggle → 2010s
“The integrity of the party was put in question,” Mr. Aucoin said.
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Aucoin → put → question
When Mr. Milliard, a boyish-looking pharmacist and former Uniprix executive, won a hastily assembled leadership race this past February, he was uncontested.
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he → win → race
The PLQ brand was tarnished, and the new chief would have little time to introduce himself to voters ahead of a fall campaign.
Those circumstances set the Liberals back, but a deeper obstacle was at play as well: what Mr. Aucoin called Quebec’s “deep blue streak,” has lately risen to the surface.
asserted
called → tarnish → surface
The province finds itself in a conservative era, with fears about the future of French – amidst a massive increase in immigration and the overweening presence of English online – leaving many francophones in a defensive mood.
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province → find → mood
In this atmosphere, the party of minority rights, public sector reform, business, and federalism has had trouble gaining traction.
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party → have → traction
Although only the PQ and Québec solidaire are arguing for independence, the CAQ and even the once-libertarian Conservative Party of Quebec are making strong nationalist pitches – a veritable sea of ideological blue.
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CAQ → argue → blue
It’s harder to make the federalist case because nationalism is largely based on emotion, André Pratte, president of the PLQ’s National Political Commission, which acts as an internal think tank, said in an interview earlier this year.
“For many Quebeckers, being part of Canada is a rational decision, not so much an emotional decision,” he said.
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he → ’ → Canada
Adding to this baggage, the Milliard campaign got off to a bumpy start with gaffes that were heavily scrutinized in Quebec’s intense media climate, dominated by the sovereigntist-leaning Quebecor empire.
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that → add → empire
The party’s decision not to put the leader’s face on the side of its campaign bus was dissected for days, until Mr. Milliard’s visage finally appeared on the vehicle.
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visage → put → vehicle
Since then, the party has fared better.
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party → fare → ?
Mr. Milliard was thought to have performed well in the debates.
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Milliard → think → debates
The polling collapse of the CAQ in recent days has seemingly directed some anti-referendum voters into the Liberal camp, with the party now sitting at 26 per cent in Léger’s latest survey, behind only the PQ at 30 per cent.
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party → direct → cent
But because of the PLQ vote’s heavy concentration in Montreal, the party is projected to win about 30 fewer seats than the péquistes.
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party → project → péquistes
Mr. Beauchemin’s move to run in the Townships, rather than in his blood-red former seat in the metropole, was an attempt by the party to strengthen its position in the regions.
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move → run → regions
It was a risky bet for the fluently bilingual former banker, who comes across as a walking embodiment of his party.
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who → come → party
With a sheaf of flyers in his hand, he marched up and down the pretty rural roads of Knowlton expounding liberal principles.
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he → march → principles
“History judges nations harshly that only treat their majorities well …
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that → judge → majorities
The anglophones don’t have the impression of being treated equally …
asserted
anglophones → have → impression
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
