Galen Druke is the founder and host of “GD Politics,” a leading nonpartisan podcast and Substack that explains politics with curiosity, rigor, and a sense of humor.
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that → lead → humor
He also co-
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He → co → ?
In this week’s conversation, Yascha Mounk and Galen Druke discuss whether Democrats are headed for a blue wave in the 2026 midterms, why the Senate map remains an uphill climb even in a favorable national environment, and what the persistent unpopularity of the Democratic Party tells us about its challenges going into the next election cycle.
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unpopularity → discuss → cycle
This transcript has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.
Yascha Mounk:
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transcript → condense → clarity
I’ve followed the midterms at the headline level.
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I → follow → level
I look at the various polling averages now and then, and I look at some of the prediction markets.
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I → look → markets
This year it looks like, on the generic ballot, Democrats are doing particularly well.
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Democrats → look → ballot
Should we be expecting a huge blue wave?
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we → expect → wave
Are Democrats going to win the House?
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Democrats → go → House
Might they even win the Senate?
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they → win → Senate
I think the base case expectation should be a blue wave.
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expectation → think → ?
If you look at the generic ballot today, which is asking Americans whether they would prefer Republicans or Democrats to control Congress, Democrats lead by about nine percentage points.
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Democrats → look → points
In the House, certainly the expectation should be that Democrats win.
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Democrats → win → House
This year the map is particularly Republican-friendly, in the sense that Republicans are defending quite red turf.
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Republicans → defend → turf
The battlegrounds we’re talking about in this cycle are places where Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in 2024 by 11 to 13 points—Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska.
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Trump → talk → points
I think we have to be able to hold two things in our minds at once.
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we → think → minds
There is a backlash to Donald Trump—his approval rating is somewhere around net negative 23, which makes him historically unpopular, less popular than he was going into the midterms in 2018, less popular than Biden was going into the midterms in 2022.
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Biden → be → 2022
In fact, less popular than any president we have data for going back to the beginning of the modern polling era.
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we → have → era
That’s really bad.
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At the same time, if you see an environment where Democrats are favored by nine percentage points, but the baseline partisanship of the states we’re talking about in the Senate is more like R plus 10 or even R plus 13, that gets Democrats close, that gets Democrats competitive, but some other things have to go right for them as well—for example, having good quality Democratic candidates or bad quality Republican candidates.
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things → see → candidates
I think that’s the baseline for what people should expect.
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people → think → what
Let’s stay at the national level a little bit, and then over the course of this conversation I also want to dive into some of these particular races and dynamics.
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I → let → races
In terms of the general numbers, I feel like there may be some reasons to think that the polls are even underestimating the magnitude of the Democratic win, and some reasons to think that the elections may turn out to be a little bit closer than we’re thinking at the moment.
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we → feel → moment
Let me throw a little bit of each at you and help us puzzle through which of these we should take seriously.
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we → let → these
One reason to think that we might be underestimating the magnitude of this is that these waves tend to build.
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waves → think → this
Massachusetts seems like a very obviously Democrat state that’s always going to vote for a Democrat.
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that → seem → Democrat
But if you’re in a national environment like in 2009, in which there’s a huge backlash against Barack Obama and the start of the rise of the Tea Party, Democrats are capable of losing a Senate seat in Massachusetts, particularly if they don’t have a very good candidate.
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they → ’re → candidate
In the same way, you’re looking at these races in places that have always broken the hearts of Democrats—can we really pull off something like Texas?
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we → look → Texas
Could we win somewhere like Kansas?
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we → win → Kansas
I’d normally say of course they can’t, but in a big enough wave, perhaps we could.
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we → say → wave
The second argument goes a little bit in that direction as well.
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argument → go → direction
Historically, Democrats have always been disfavored in midterms because the Republican Party was mostly the party of highly educated and affluent people, and highly educated and affluent people tend to vote much more consistently and reliably.
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people → disfavor → people
So in lower salience elections, Republicans had a built-in advantage.
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Republicans → have → advantage
That has mostly changed and transformed—presumably posters are aware of that—and I don’t know what your assessment is of whether the models have fully incorporated that change.
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models → change → change
Perhaps we might be underestimating Democratic turnout and overestimating Republican turnout for midterms specifically.
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we → underestimate → midterms
On the other hand, you can say midterms are referenda on the sitting president.
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midterms → say → president
Donald Trump is deeply unpopular—I believe that part of the polls.
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But normally, when the governing party becomes unpopular, the opposition becomes a lot more popular.
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opposition → govern → ?
The image of the Democratic Party continues to be really, really bad.
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image → continue → Party
So perhaps people will sit out the election, or they won’t quite be willing to vote for Democrats for that reason.
So those are some reasons to think perhaps it’s going to be an even bigger Democratic majority than we think, and at least one reason to worry that the wave is going to turn out to be smaller than we think.
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we → sit → reason
…and 326 more, not listed.
The Aporia
