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Democrats ahead in Texas, Alaska, and Ohio while tied in Kansas for midterm elections: Poll

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Rowe, R. (2026, October 3). Democrats ahead in Texas, Alaska, and Ohio while tied in Kansas for midterm elections: Poll. Washington Examiner. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4753051/democrat-ahead-texas-alaska-ohio-midterm-siena-poll-national-data-center-debate/

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Washington Examiner · collected 2026-10-03 · by Rena Rowe

Quick Summary

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll indicates Democratic Senate candidates leading or competitive against Republican opponents in traditionally red states Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. In these states, which President Donald Trump won by margins ranging from 11 to 16 percentage points in the 2024 election, Democrats hold advantages of up to seven points over Republicans. The poll highlights voter concerns with candidates being too ideologically extreme on both sides and generally finds higher disapproval ratings for Trump compared to approval ratings across these states.
Written by AI on 2026-10-03, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

A recent poll from the New York Times/Siena College indicates Democrats are performing unexpectedly well in several traditionally Republican-leaning states for the upcoming midterm elections. In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) by 7 points. In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead of Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) by 3 points. In Texas and Iowa, Democratic candidates Josh Turek and James Talarico lead their Republican opponents by 1 and 6 points, respectively. The race in Kansas between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton is nearly tied. These results suggest competitive races even in states that President Donald Trump won comfortably in 2024 with margins ranging from 11 to 16 percentage points.

Written for “Midterm Elections Polls” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Midterm Elections Polls
Politics · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
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⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 7 claims
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“The articles discuss different aspects of political landscapes and polls across multiple states and do not focus on a single specific event or time.”
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“The articles discuss different aspects of Democratic performance and polls across various states leading up to midterm elections, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
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“The articles discuss different aspects of political races and redistricting efforts across multiple states, rather than focusing on a single specific incident or event.”
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Hedges 0 of 15 claims Outlet record 70/100
“Article A describes a specific ad campaign by Mary Peltola distancing herself from the Democratic Party label, while Article B discusses overall polling trends for midterm elections in several states.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 13 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A discusses the general context and potential outcomes of the upcoming midterm elections for control of Congress, while Article B reports on specific polling results in particular states.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 55 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles describe different polls in different states and races.”
CBS News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 12 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of polling data in Texas and other states, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
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Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles cover different aspects of the upcoming midterm elections and do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
CBS News
Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of polling data for midterm elections, covering varying races and issues.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

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Claims extracted
22
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 22 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
70/100
Washington Examiner's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-03 · how these are computed

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Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Washington Examiner · 3814 article(s) · 7 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 7 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Rena Rowe
99 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 A federal judge overseeing a legal fight over President Donald Trump’s plans to remake Washington, D.C.’s East Potomac Golf Links said Friday she would investigate whether administration officials misled the court and violated professional ethics rules during the proceedings.
🔮 Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R-AK) has ordered an investigation into whether Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola’s campaign illegally recruited a spoiler candidate to siphon votes from Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), escalating a controversy that could reshape one of the country’s most competitive Senate races days before Election Day.
🔮 President Donald Trump is set to hold a rally on Wednesday in Chillicothe, Ohio, at 7 p.m., less than a week before the 2026 midterm election.
🔮 Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to announce the central bank’s interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m.
🔮 Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to campaign with President Donald Trump in Ohio on Thursday, expanding his role on the campaign trail as Republicans travel across the country to shore up support ahead of next week’s midterm elections.
🔮 The ultra-Orthodox Shas party joined the request, citing unusually long lines and warning that voters could be prevented from casting ballots before polls closed.
🔮 Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon said that assumptions about racism in the South may be contributing to Democrats’ reluctance to invest in her campaign, arguing that the party has repeatedly underestimated the state’s political potential.
🔮 President Donald Trump is set to hold a rally at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on Thursday in Sioux City, Iowa, to boost GOP candidates ahead of the looming Nov. 3 election.
🔮 Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr warned broadcasters against airing fabricated election polls, saying stations could face regulatory scrutiny if they knowingly mislead viewers through false polling data.
🔮 Kagan’s remarks, made Tuesday at Catholic University’s law school in Washington, D.C., come less than two weeks before the Nov. 3 elections, when voters will decide control of the House and Senate.
Also by Rena Rowe
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 99 articles by Rena Rowe →

Topics

Alaska Democratic Ohio Republican Texas

Subjects

Republican NORP · 7× Democratic NORP · 6× Ohio GPE · 6× Alaska GPE · 4× Talarico PERSON · 4× Texas GPE · 4× Times/Siena ORG · 4× Kansas GPE · 3× Trump PERSON · 3× Senate ORG · 2×

Narrative

The polling found former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leading Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) by 7 points in Alaska, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) by 3 points in Ohio, and Democratic candidates Josh Turek and James Talarico leading Republican opponents by 1 and 6 points, respectively, in Iowa and Texas.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-03
🔮 Alaska’s general election will also feature another candidate named Dan Sullivan, creating an unusual ballot issue that the Times said prompted pollsters to specify that respondents were being asked about the incumbent.

Claims (22 extracted, 0 hedged)

Recent polling shows Democrats making gains in several states President Donald Trump carried comfortably in 2024, tightening the party’s path to potentially reclaiming the Senate as the midterm elections approach. asserted
elections → show → Senate
A New York Times/Siena College poll of five states — Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas — found Democratic Senate candidates tied or ahead in each race, highlighting a competitive environment in states Trump won by between 11 and 16 percentage points in 2024. asserted
Trump → find → 2024
The polling found former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leading Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) by 7 points in Alaska, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) by 3 points in Ohio, and Democratic candidates Josh Turek and James Talarico leading Republican opponents by 1 and 6 points, respectively, in Iowa and Texas. asserted
Turek → find → Iowa
The Kansas race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton was effectively tied. asserted
race → tie → Marshall
The findings are consistent with other recent polling showing unusually competitive races in several traditionally Republican states. asserted
findings → show → states
In Texas, for example, recent surveys have generally shown Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton within a few points of each other. asserted
Talarico → show → other
A Fox News poll conducted Sept. 24 to 28 put Talarico ahead 51% to 49% among likely voters. asserted
poll → conduct → voters
Across the five states surveyed by Times/Siena, Trump had a 40% approval rating, compared with 57% who viewed him unfavorably. asserted
who → survey → him
The poll found his approval had declined by 5 points since the newspaper’s previous surveys in four of the states in June. asserted
approval → find → June
In all five states, voters were more likely to say the Democratic candidate “has good character” than the Republican candidate. asserted
candidate → say → candidate
In four of the five states, voters were also more likely to describe the Republican candidate as “too far to the right” than to describe the Democrat as “too far to the left.” asserted
voters → describe → left
In Texas, Talarico has remained competitive despite a major Republican campaign effort aimed at defining him negatively. asserted
Talarico → remain → him
The Times/Siena polling found 40% of voters considered Talarico “too far to the left,” roughly unchanged from June, while 47% said Paxton was “too far to the right.” asserted
Paxton → find → right
Ohio has emerged as another notable battleground, with Brown challenging Husted in a state Trump won with more than 55% of the vote in 2024. asserted
Trump → emerge → 2024
The Ohio race has also brought artificial intelligence and data centers into the campaign. asserted
race → bring → campaign
The poll found voters preferred Brown to Husted by 10 points on issues involving AI and data centers. asserted
voters → find → AI
Ohio has become a focal point in the national debate over data center growth and its effect on electricity demand and local communities. asserted
Ohio → become → demand
Alaska presents a different dynamic. asserted
Alaska → present → dynamic
Peltola’s 7-point lead in the Times/Siena poll follows a top-four primary in which she finished ahead of Sullivan. asserted
she → follow → Sullivan
Alaska’s general election will also feature another candidate named Dan Sullivan, creating an unusual ballot issue that the Times said prompted pollsters to specify that respondents were being asked about the incumbent. asserted
respondents → feature → incumbent
Kansas was the closest of the five races in the Times/Siena survey, with Marshall and Hamilton effectively tied. asserted
Marshall → tie → survey
Hamilton, a first-time Democratic candidate and Methodist megachurch pastor, had the highest net favorability rating among the candidates tested, while 28% of likely voters said they had not heard enough about him to have an opinion. asserted
they → have → opinion
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