- Sign up HERE to our DC Insider newsletter - your guide to what's rocking Washington, rattling the White House and setting tongues wagging on the Hill
With the election just weeks away, James Talarico is still ahead of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, with a new Fox News poll showing the Democrat narrowly leading the Republican.
asserted
Democrat → sign → Republican
The poll was taken days before leaked audio emerged of Paxton discussing President Donald Trump's Republican midterm convention in Dallas.
asserted
Paxton → take → Dallas
And the latest Fox News numbers show Talarico with a razor-thin advantage.
asserted
numbers → show → advantage
The poll, conducted September 24 through 28, puts Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 49 percent among 881 likely Texas voters, a two-point gap that falls within the poll's ±3 percentage-point margin of error.
asserted
that → conduct → error
The leaked-audio controversy erupted Wednesday, September 30, after a recording surfaced of Paxton making striking comments about the convention at a private Washington fundraiser attended by around a dozen conservative donors and lobbyists.
asserted
Paxton → leak → donors
During the event, someone asked Paxton whether 'he' was 'a little bit of a drag.'
asserted
he → ask → drag
While the recording does not make completely clear who was being referred to, Paxton's response appears to turn to Trump's September Republican convention in Dallas.
asserted
response → make → Dallas
'To be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers.
asserted
it → do → numbers
Everybody's numbers dropped.
asserted
numbers → drop → ?
Right now, yeah, not good,' Paxton is heard saying.
asserted
Paxton → hear → ?
'To be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers.
asserted
it → do → numbers
Everybody's numbers dropped.
asserted
numbers → drop → ?
Right now, yeah, not good,' Paxton is heard saying, in a leaked audio obtained by the New York Times
The Fox News poll, conducted September 24 through 28, puts Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 49 percent among 881 likely Texas voters, a two-point gap that falls within the poll's ±3 percentage-point margin of error
Trump was confronted with the controversy Wednesday and said he had not heard Paxton's comments before defending the Dallas convention as 'amazing'
asserted
he → hear → convention
The remarks appeared to suggest that Paxton believed the convention had been followed by a deterioration in Republican candidates' numbers, including his own.
asserted
convention → appear → own
An awkward moment for a politician who has been one of Trump's prominent allies and secured the Republican Senate nomination after receiving Trump's endorsement.
asserted
who → secure → endorsement
Paxton's campaign swiftly hit back, with senior adviser Nick Maddux dismissing the report as 'more manipulated nonsense from the New York Times' and disputing the suggestion that Paxton's standing had deteriorated.
asserted
standing → hit → suggestion
The campaign said its own latest polling showed Paxton leading by three points.
asserted
Paxton → say → points
Trump was confronted with the controversy Wednesday and said he had not heard Paxton's comments before defending the Dallas convention as 'amazing.'
asserted
he → confront → convention
Vice President JD Vance also brushed aside the significance of the private remarks and said Republicans would continue backing Paxton.
Paxton has also been forced to defend his record after the Texas Senate acquitted him of impeachment in 2023, following his historic impeachment by the state House on 16 articles.
asserted
Senate → brush → articles
The latest poll offers a fresh snapshot of a race that is shaping up to be exceptionally close, with Talarico holding the narrowest of advantages as the candidates head toward Election Day.
asserted
candidates → offer → Day
Paxton is underwater, with 40 percent viewing him favorably and 58 percent unfavorably, giving him a net rating of minus 18
Talarico is viewed favorably by 52 percent, compared with 44 percent who view him unfavorably, giving him a net positive rating of eight points
Vice President JD Vance also brushed aside the significance of the private remarks and said Republicans would continue backing Paxton
The Democrat also enjoys a significantly stronger personal rating among voters.
asserted
Democrat → view → voters
Talarico is viewed favorably by 52 percent, compared with 44 percent who view him unfavorably, giving him a net positive rating of eight points.
asserted
who → view → points
Paxton, meanwhile, is underwater, with 40 percent viewing him favorably and 58 percent unfavorably, giving him a net rating of minus 18.
asserted
percent → view → minus
The poll also reveals a notable divide within the Republican electorate.
asserted
poll → reveal → electorate
Non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times as likely to support Talarico as MAGA Republicans, with 22 percent compared with 4 percent crossing party lines to back the Democrat.
asserted
percent → support → Democrat
That crossover appears to reflect divisions that lingered after the hard-fought Republican primary and runoff.
asserted
that → appear → primary
Among likely voters who supported Republican Senator John Cornyn in the March primary, 20 percent now back Talarico.
asserted
percent → support → Talarico
Democratic voters, meanwhile, are showing exceptionally strong support for their nominee.
asserted
voters → show → nominee
Fox News found that 100 percent of DSA Democrats and 98 percent of non-DSA Democrats back Talarico.
asserted
percent → find → Talarico
Among likely voters who supported Republican Senator John Cornyn in the March primary, 20 percent now back Talarico
asserted
percent → support → Talarico
Fox News found that 100 percent of DSA Democrats and 98 percent of non-DSA Democrats back Talarico
Paxton's strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians at 74 percent and White men without a college degree at 65 percent
Talarico is also running strongly among several groups, including Black voters at 79 percent, moderates at 65 percent, Hispanic voters at 64 percent and voters under 35 at 62 percent.
asserted
Talarico → find → percent
Paxton's strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians at 74 percent, White men without a college degree at 65 percent, rural voters at 57 percent and voters aged 65 and over at 55 percent.
asserted
support → come → percent
The poll suggests the economy could be another crucial battleground.
uncertain
economy → suggest → ?
Seven in ten Texas voters say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, while twice as many voters say they are falling behind financially as say they are getting ahead.
asserted
they → say → vote
Those who say they are falling behind financially back Talarico by 32 points, while voters who say they are getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points.
asserted
they → say → points
Those who say they are holding steady narrowly favor Paxton by three points.
asserted
they → say → points
The two candidates also have sharply different advantages depending on the issue.
asserted
candidates → have → issue
Voters who say cost of living is extremely important favor Talarico by 19 points, while those focused on artificial intelligence favor him by 18 points.
asserted
those → say → points
Immigration-focused voters favor Paxton by 20 points.
asserted
voters → focus → points
The current Republican Party of Texas legislative priorities explicitly include 'Border Enforcement'
asserted
priorities → include → Enforcement
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
