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Tight monetary policy likely to continue

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Iqbal, S. (2026, October 4). Tight monetary policy likely to continue. Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/news/2034576/tight-monetary-policy-likely-to-continue

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Dawn · collected 2026-10-04 · by Shahid Iqbal

Quick Summary

Financial experts predict the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will maintain its tight monetary policy despite missing its FY27 inflation target due to high oil prices and cost-push pressures. In September, consumer price index-based inflation reached 10.3%, exceeding the SBP's target range of 5-7%. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates elevated at 11.5% or potentially raise them further, arguing that this supports sustainable economic growth while other experts contend that such measures hurt domestic industries and exacerbate poverty.
Written by AI on 2026-10-04, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

In KARACHI, financial experts predict the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will likely not meet its FY27 mid-term inflation target of 5-7%, given that consumer price index-based inflation reached 10.3% in September. This high inflation rate is straining industries and businesses across Pakistan, with cost-push pressures exacerbating the situation. Despite this, the SBP is expected to keep interest rates elevated at its current rate, which was recently adjusted by a publisher correction of 0.2%, rather than lowering them to stimulate economic activity. Economic analyst Amir Aziz notes that without a comprehensive policy addressing inflated energy prices and overall double-digit inflation, there can be no significant improvement in the economy, where 44% of Pakistanis live below the poverty line.

Written for “Monetary Policy Continues” on 2026-10-30, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Monetary Policy Continues
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly left and hedges 5% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Guardian
Hedges 2 of 22 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different central banks' approaches to inflation (RBA in Australia and SBP in Pakistan) on distinct dates.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
19
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
5%
1 of 19 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans strongly left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
72/100
Dawn's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-04 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Dawn · 2460 article(s) · 3 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 3 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Shahid Iqbal
8 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Bankers say 100bps hike needed to tame inflation as Middle East conflict drives up oil import costs He said the looming US attacks on Iran are another factor that may push inflation higher and prompt the central bank to deliver a rate hike.
2026-10-25 · assertive framing · Stakeholders see monetary tightening tomorrow
🔮 The IMF had forecast a growth rate of 3.5pc for FY27, but the finance minister said on Tuesday he hoped for a 4pc growth.
🔮 The growth trend could help the government achieve its annual remittance target of $44 billion for FY27.
2026-10-10 · assertive framing · Remittances rise 14pc to $10.9bn in July-Sept
🔮 Consumer Price Index-based inflation of 10.3 per cent in September clearly indicates that industry, businesses, and the general public will bear the brunt of these cost-push inflationary pressures.
2026-10-04 · assertive framing · Tight monetary policy likely to continue
🔮 Iran is now anticipating possible attacks from the US, raising concerns that oil prices could surge.
2026-09-27 · mixed framing · Inflation seen slowing to 10.75pc in September
🔮 State Bank Governor Jameel Ahmad on Friday launched the Pasban Remittance Reward Scheme, under which the banking industry will offer Rs16 billion in annual cash prizes to recipients of home remittances sent through formal channels, with no cost to the national exchequer.
2026-09-26 · assertive framing · Rs16bn bank-funded remittance reward scheme unveiled
🔮 Bankers anticipate a status quo, but some analysts believe the central bank will lift its policy rate by 50 basis points at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
2026-09-13 · mixed framing · State Bank in tight spot as inflation rises
Also by Shahid Iqbal
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 8 articles by Shahid Iqbal →

Topics

Bangladesh KARACHI Pakistan SBP the State Bank of Pakistan

Subjects

SBP ORG · 4× Bangladesh GPE · 3× Pakistan GPE · 2× Amir Aziz PERSON · 1× KARACHI GPE · 1× Mohammad Hasham PERSON · 1× Pakistani NORP · 1× Pakistanis NORP · 1× Tresmark ORG · 1× the State Bank of Pakistan ORG · 1×

Narrative

The situation would not change unless a comprehensive economic policy is introduced to support domestic investment, which is being undermined by inflated energy prices and overall double-digit inflation,” said Amir Aziz, a manufacturer and exporter of textile made-ups.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-04
🔮 Consumer Price Index-based inflation of 10.3 per cent in September clearly indicates that industry, businesses, and the general public will bear the brunt of these cost-push inflationary pressures.
2026-10-04 · Dawn
Tight monetary policy likely to continue · assertive framing

Claims (19 extracted, 1 hedged)

As the world continues to grapple with uncertain oil prices, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is unlikely to meet its FY27 mid-term inflation target of 5-7 per cent, financial experts and analysts said. asserted
experts → continue → cent
Consumer Price Index-based inflation of 10.3 per cent in September clearly indicates that industry, businesses, and the general public will bear the brunt of these cost-push inflationary pressures. asserted
industry → base → pressures
Experts believe the central bank will not lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity. asserted
bank → believe → activity
Instead, it will maintain a tight monetary stance to support ‘sustainable’ growth. asserted
it → maintain → growth
For the past four years, the government and the SBP have been satisfied with low but sustainable growth of around 3 to 3.7 per cent—a level that creates no jobs and does not address the severe problem of 44 per cent of Pakistanis living in poverty. asserted
that → satisfy → poverty
“There is no domestic or foreign investment, and existing industries are struggling to survive. asserted
industries → be → ?
The situation would not change unless a comprehensive economic policy is introduced to support domestic investment, which is being undermined by inflated energy prices and overall double-digit inflation,” said Amir Aziz, a manufacturer and exporter of textile made-ups. asserted
Aziz → change → ups
Bangladesh is in a much better position, as energy costs about 7 to 8 cents per unit, compared with 14 to 16 cents in Pakistan. asserted
energy → cost → Pakistan
This gives Bangladesh an advantage over Pakistani products,” said Mr Mohammad Hasham, who recently returned home after serving the Bangladesh textile industry for 25 years as the head of some of its largest textile units. asserted
who → give → units
He said double-digit inflation is killing both the industry and investors, and economic activity is slowing, causing pain for the general public. asserted
activity → say → public
Tresmark Chief Executive Faisal Mamsa said that Pakistan’s authorities reportedly expect inflation to average around 7.5pc if oil returns towards $80, and around 8.2pc if it remains near $100 per barrel. “They also expect inflation to moderate after December and argue that the current 11.5pc policy rate remains appropriate,” he said. uncertain
he → say → December
However, many experts disagree that the SBP policy rate will remain unchanged at 11.5pc despite double-digit inflation. asserted
rate → disagree → inflation
At the same time, the government raised cut-off yields by up to 75 basis points, with the highest at 12.49pc for the one-year tenor at Wednesday’s T-bill auction. asserted
government → raise → auction
The hike in returns on risk-free government papers reflected a possible rise in the SBP policy rate at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Oct 26. asserted
hike → reflect → Oct
Mr Mamsa said the stable rupee helps contain imported inflation. asserted
rupee → say → inflation
Higher domestic fuel prices allow demand and imports to adjust. asserted
demand → allow → ?
“The IMF, meanwhile, continues to emphasise a more market-based exchange rate. asserted
IMF → continue → rate
The authorities are reluctant to reopen the imported inflation Pandora’s Box,” he said, adding that a market-based exchange rate parity does not automatically mean a weaker rupee. asserted
parity → reopen → rupee
“If remittances remain strong, reserves continue improving, the current account stays manageable, and the dollar demand remains contained, price discovery can still produce a stable currency,” he said. asserted
he → remain → currency
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