The Houthis’ lightning offensive in September seized the entire Red Sea coastline, shocking the world and shattering confidence in the capabilities of the forces of the internationally recognized government.
asserted
offensive → seize → government
However, further Houthi offensives have met stiffer resistance from the recuperated forces of the Presidential Leadership Council, depriving the group of another quick victory.
asserted
offensives → meet → victory
The latter half of September saw fighting in Yemen shift to the strategic southwest highlands, concentrated around the critical city of Taiz, the third-largest in Yemen and the only one of the country’s top five cities the PLC controls outside of its capital, Aden.
asserted
PLC → see → capital
Thursday saw one of the heaviest days of fighting yet, after the Houthis launched an all-out offensive seeking to encircle the city.
asserted
Houthis → see → city
Two weeks into fighting, the unforgiving mountainous terrain, heavy Saudi and government air power, and a reenergized anti-Houthi coalition have kept the Houthi advance in check, preventing a collapse on the level of that in mid-September.
Six people familiar with the matter told Reuters that the Saudis are planning a massive offensive, involving over 100,000 Yemeni troops, to possibly retake the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
uncertain
Saudis → reenergize → Strait
The reported offensive is expected to take place sometime in the next several weeks.
asserted
offensive → report → weeks
The report also stated that Saudi Arabia has ruled out negotiations until the strait has been wrested from Houthi control.
asserted
strait → state → control
As Yemen returns to a level of fighting intensity not seen since the 2022 truce, the civil war has entered a decisive phase, with several possible avenues forward.
asserted
war → return → avenues
Where will the Houthis strike next?
asserted
Houthis → strike → ?
For a movement that once faced extinction against Yemeni security forces in the northern Yemeni mountains of Saada in the mid-2000s, mid-September marked the high-water mark beyond the Houthi movement founder’s wildest dreams.
asserted
September → face → dreams
After humbling several international coalitions, the group had proven its fighting superiority with a lightning offensive that saw the most rapid exchange of territory since the civil war began over a decade ago, seizing one of the most strategically vital strips of real estate on Earth.
asserted
war → humble → Earth
The once-ragtag group now controlled the Bab el Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s foremost maritime trade chokepoints.
asserted
group → control → chokepoints
With the Houthis’ foremost target taken, the next question on analysts’ minds is where they will strike next.
asserted
they → take → minds
The group controls about one-third of Yemen’s landmass, though the areas under its control are the most strategically important and densely populated.
asserted
areas → control → control
The capital, Sanaa, is under Houthi control, along with 70-80% of Yemen’s population and the military manpower that provides.
asserted
that → provide → population
While the Houthis control most of the people, the PLC controls most of the resources and money.
asserted
PLC → control → resources
Nearly all of Yemen’s oil and gas are located in three government-controlled governorates: Hadramawt, Shabwa, and Marib, though exports have largely halted since 2022 due to damage from Houthi drone strikes.
asserted
exports → locate → strikes
AbdulSalam Mohammed, president of the Abaad Studies & Research Center and an adviser to Yemen’s Information Ministry, told the Washington Examiner that government forces are currently focused on defending against the Houthis along three main axes.
asserted
forces → tell → axes
The first is the mountainous areas around Bab el-Mandeb, “which could provide defensive depth for a long-term Iranian-linked military presence in the area.”
uncertain
which → provide → area
The second is in the southwest highlands, which, if taken, would allow the group to sever major roads linking Yemeni cities with Aden, “which would weaken the constitutional government and fragment areas under its control.”
asserted
which → take → control
The other is in Marib and Shabwa, to deny the Houthis “access to a more sustainable source of financing for its military operations.”
asserted
other → deny → operations
Amr al Bidh, whom the south Yemeni separatist Southern Transitional Council identifies as a member of its leadership and its chief of foreign affairs, told the Washington Examiner in an interview that the group identified Marib as one of the most likely targets of the Houthis.
asserted
group → identify → Houthis
The STC was officially dissolved in January, but Bidh and the rest of the leadership in exile reject the dissolution.
asserted
Bidh → dissolve → dissolution
It continues to exert significant influence on the ground.
asserted
It → continue → ground
Marib city and governorate have dual value with their oil and gas reserves, along with Marib’s power as a key “symbol when it comes to the legitimacy of north Yemen,” Bidh explained.
asserted
Bidh → have → Yemen
Its importance is so significant that he said before the major Red Sea coast offensive, the STC viewed each as nearly equal in importance to the Houthis.
asserted
STC → say → Houthis
“Even before taking Bab el-Mandeb, in our analysis we said, ‘If the Houthis start this, where will they go?
asserted
they → take → this
It’s either Bab el-Mandeb or Marib,’” Bidh said.
asserted
Bidh → ’ → ?
“And we thought maybe because of the situation with Iran and the U.S. they will definitely go towards Bab el-Mandeb for now, but then it will be Marib.”
asserted
it → think → Mandeb
PLC forces have fared far better on the eastern front in and around Marib, where they claim to have made modest gains.
uncertain
they → fare → gains
The government forces settled into a more defensive posture after the defeat in the southwest.
asserted
forces → settle → southwest
While a push east for Marib would get the Houthis the most resources, a southern push appears to be more strategically important for the time being.
asserted
push → get → time
The two largest government-controlled cities, Aden and Taiz, are located in central-south Yemen.
asserted
cities → control → Yemen
Troop movements over the past couple of weeks indicate the group is concentrating on seizing the southwestern highlands, which could then open the way for a push toward the government’s capital, Aden.
uncertain
which → indicate → capital
Abdulsalam said the densely populated mountainous regions would “provide a large pool for mobilization and recruitment.”
asserted
regions → say → mobilization
The key to holding these regions is Taiz city, which currently occupies a noticeable bulge into Houthi-controlled territory.
asserted
which → hold → territory
Fierce assaults over the past week indicate that the group is concentrating on seizing it next.
asserted
group → indicate → it
“The Houthis’ strategy for the time being appears focused on Taiz, particularly the main highway connecting Taiz city through Al-Turbah to Aden.
asserted
strategy → focus → Aden
This is a critical ground line of communication, or GLOC, for the Yemen National Army, allied forces, and the Popular Resistance,” Mohammed al Basha, a Washington-based Yemen analyst and former Yemeni official, told the Washington Examiner on Thursday.
asserted
Basha → base → Thursday
The Houthis launched one of their biggest attacks since hostilities restarted on Thursday, attacking across at least 20 locations.
asserted
hostilities → launch → locations
…and 43 more, not listed.
The Aporia
