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Parti Québécois leader still top of polls as election day nears

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Cite

Morris, E. (2026, October 4). Parti Québécois leader still top of polls as election day nears. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/quebec/parti-qu-b-cois-leader-still-top-of-polls-as-election-day-nears/article_16c5828c-5ba7-540c-98a5-4100302ca407.html

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Toronto Star · collected 2026-10-04 · by Erika Morris

Quick Summary

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Québécois (PQ), is leading in polls ahead of Quebec's October 5 election, potentially setting the stage for a third referendum on independence. Four years after winning only three seats and watching Coalition Avenir Québec secure another majority government, the PQ has gained momentum, securing four additional seats through byelections. St-Pierre Plamondon, who promised to hold a referendum if his party forms government, now seeks a majority vote from Quebecers, despite previous criticism of separatism.
Written by AI on 2026-10-04, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The leaders of Quebec’s five main political parties, including the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) and Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), made their final pitches to undecided voters over the weekend ahead of a provincial election on October 5, 2026. PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has been leading in polls throughout the campaign and promised a sovereignty referendum by 2029. Despite skepticism from opponents who argue that referendums cause political instability and harm the economy, St-Pierre Plamondon urges voters to support his party for a majority government to implement change after eight years of CAQ rule. About one quarter of eligible voters had already cast ballots in advance polls.

Written for “Quebec Election Vote” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 41 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Quebec Election Vote
Politics · 42 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 9% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Hindu
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 2 of 23 claims Outlet record 60/100
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles describe different phases of the election campaign and do not focus on the exact same specific incident.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 37 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles describe different aspects of Parti Québécois and its leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, but do not focus on the same specific incident.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles describe different political leaders and parties, addressing distinct events related to their leadership and potential election outcomes.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 1 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different party leaders and their respective political situations leading up to an upcoming election, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 1 of 29 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different political parties and leaders facing elections, not the same specific electoral incident.”
Global News
Hedges 5 of 25 claims Outlet record 63/100
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles describe different events: one about Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's potential return to power and another about Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard rallying against PQ's referendum pledge.”
South China Morning Post
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 5 claims Outlet record 62/100
“While both articles discuss the upcoming election and potential return to power for Parti Québécois, they describe different phases of the event: ARTICLE A is about pre-election polling trends, while ARTICLE B reports on the actual voting day.”
The Globe and Mail
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 4 of 38 claims Outlet record 52/100
“The articles cover different points in time during an election process—one before and one after, indicating distinct stages rather than a singular incident.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
34
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
9%
3 of 34 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
42
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-04 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 11416 article(s) · 28 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 28 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Erika Morris
22 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 Quebecers may have a sense of déjà vu after voting on a similar question in 1980, when René Lévesque’s Parti Québécois asked whether the province should begin negotiations to leave Confederation.
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🔮 Fréchette said she would remain as premier until the premier-designate, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is sworn in.
2026-10-06 · assertive framing · Fréchette resigns as Coalition Avenir Québec leader
🔮 Although his party fell short of the 64 seats needed to form a majority in Quebec’s national assembly, St-Pierre Plamondon could be well positioned to work with the sovereigntist Québec solidaire party to plan a third referendum on independence in Quebec.
Also by Erika Morris
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 22 articles by Erika Morris →

Topics

Canada MONTREAL Parti Québécois Quebec the Coalition Avenir Québec

Subjects

St-Pierre Plamondon PERSON · 5× Quebec GPE · 4× Coalition Avenir Québec ORG · 2× American NORP · 1× Canada GPE · 1× MONTREAL GPE · 1× Parti Québécois ORG · 1× Paul St-Pierre Plamondon PERSON · 1× Pauline Marois PERSON · 1× the Coalition Avenir Québec ORG · 1×

Narrative

However, the party won four more seats in byelections before the legislature was dissolved in August and is now considered the front-runner in a race where the vote is being split among five parties. St-Pierre Plamondon won the PQ leadership in 2020 after promising to hold a referendum if the party formed government.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-04
🔮 Just before this year’s electoral campaign period began, St-Pierre Plamondon said he would wait until American President Donald Trump is out of the White House to do so.
2026-10-04 · Toronto Star
Parti Québécois leader still top of polls as election day nears · assertive framing

Claims (34 extracted, 3 hedged)

MONTREAL - Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon had his work cut out for him after the 2022 election. asserted
work → have → election
His party only won three seats and watched as the Coalition Avenir Québec won a second majority government, presenting itself as a “third way” between federalism and sovereignty. asserted
Québec → win → federalism
Four years later, the leader of the separatist party is poised to bring his party back to power on Oct. 5, setting the table for a third referendum on independence in Quebec. asserted
leader → poise → Quebec
The PQ hasn’t been in power since former premier Pauline Marois’ minority government dissolved in 2014. asserted
government → dissolve → 2014
Historically known as a social-democrat party whose raison d’être was to separate from Canada, the PQ struggled to connect with voters in elections over the next decade. asserted
PQ → know → decade
However, the party won four more seats in byelections before the legislature was dissolved in August and is now considered the front-runner in a race where the vote is being split among five parties. St-Pierre Plamondon won the PQ leadership in 2020 after promising to hold a referendum if the party formed government. asserted
party → win → government
Just before this year’s electoral campaign period began, St-Pierre Plamondon said he would wait until American President Donald Trump is out of the White House to do so. asserted
Trump → begin → House
He said he wanted to “defang” his Liberal, Conservative and Coalition Avenir Québec rivals, who insisted that a referendum would only add to the political instability caused by trade tensions with the United States. asserted
referendum → say → States
“People oversell the instability of going and voting on (separation),” St-Pierre Plamondon said during an interview in English on CJAD’s airwaves on Oct. 1, in which he urged Quebecers to give him a majority government. asserted
he → oversell → government
The Quebec election is scheduled just two weeks before Alberta holds its own referendum on the possibility of separation. asserted
Alberta → schedule → separation
“People are going to vote. asserted
People → go → ?
And nobody thinks there’s any danger in going to vote and being in a democracy,” St-Pierre Plamondon said in the radio interview. asserted
Plamondon → think → interview
But while the PQ leader is now an ardent separatist, he once accused the independence movement of having “split Quebec in two.” asserted
he → accuse → two
He said his experiences as a lawyer and meetings with former PQ politicians led him to change his mind. asserted
experiences → say → mind
He donated over $2000 to the Liberal Party of Canada between 2004 and 2008. asserted
He → donate → 2004
A spokesperson would later say he made the donations during a period when he was a corporate lawyer at Stikeman Elliott, while attending fundraisers tied to his work at the firm. asserted
he → say → firm
He also worked on lawsuits stemming from the federal sponsorship scandal that erupted over a program introduced while former prime minister Jean Chrétien was in power. asserted
Chrétien → work → power
Sometimes describing himself as a “disappointed federalist,” St-Pierre Plamondon later joined the PQ in 2016 under former cabinet minister and party leader Jean-François Lisée. asserted
Plamondon → describe → Lisée
He made headlines after the 2022 election, when he refused to swear the oath to the King. asserted
he → make → King
The government passed a bill making the oath optional soon after, allowing him to sit at the legislature. asserted
him → pass → legislature
During his campaign, he once again attacked the British monarchy, calling it a symbol of “domination by force,” and pledging to defund the office of the lieutenant-governor, which represents the King in Quebec. asserted
which → attack → Quebec
The PQ leader has described himself as “spontaneous,” admitting to sometimes speaking to media without considering possible backlash. asserted
leader → describe → backlash
Meanwhile his rivals deem him to be “hotheaded,” “belligerent,” and “quarrelsome.” asserted
him → deem → ?
The father of three has also said he has found the campaign difficult since it has forced him to be away from his children for days at a time. asserted
it → say → time
Throughout the campaign, the PQ leader leaned on nationalist sentiment and a desire for change to drum up support from those who were disillusioned after eight years of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec. asserted
who → lean → Québec
He also relied on identity politics and linked “uncontrolled immigration” to problems such as the housing crisis, the decline in the French language, the struggling education system and strain on public services. asserted
He → rely → services
Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal compared St-Pierre Plamondon to former premier François Legault, who won two consecutive majority governments by making language, identity and autonomy core governing themes. asserted
language → compare → governments
But St-Pierre Plamondon’s detractors did little to stop his momentum during the campaign. asserted
detractors → do → campaign
Polls initially suggested Quebec was heading toward a minority PQ government. uncertain
Quebec → suggest → government
But by the end of the campaign, support for the Coalition Avenir Québec seemed to tank, opening the door for the PQ to win a majority due to a fragmented political landscape that could see five parties winning seats on Monday night. uncertain
parties → seem → night
The PQ leader has also downplayed his plans for a referendum in the last stretch of the campaign, noting that he believes voters will need to decide who they want to trust to lead Quebec. asserted
they → downplay → Quebec
“It’s not totally accurate to say that this election is only about whether we would hold a referendum in three years from now,” he told CJAD. asserted
he → ’ → CJAD
“It’s about changing or not changing a government that has catastrophic results in many areas of our society and choosing who could do a good job and who could be reliable in terms of what they do and what they say. uncertain
they → ’ → what
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 4, 2026. asserted
report → publish → Press
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