Latino voters helped propel Donald Trump back to the White House.
asserted
voters → propel → House
Now, they are turning on him, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo poll — a shift that gives Democrats a major opportunity to capitalize in a 2026 election that could hinge on states and districts with sizable Latino populations.
uncertain
that → turn → populations
Like the broader electorate, Latino voters are racked by major concerns about high prices and Trump’s approach to immigration enforcement.
asserted
voters → rack → enforcement
The president’s approval rating sits at 27% among Latino voters.
asserted
rating → sit → voters
Two-thirds say his administration’s deportation policies have gone too far and three-quarters disapprove of how he has handled the economy and the cost of living.
asserted
he → say → living
There are clear signs his party is paying the price.
asserted
party → be → price
A greater share of Latino voters hold negative views of the Republican Party than at any time since 2016, and Democrats have leads on issues like dealing with the economy, immigration, the cost of living, corruption and healthcare.
asserted
Democrats → hold → living
Two years ago, Latino voters gave Trump a 4-point edge over then-Vice President Kamala Harris on handling the economy.
asserted
voters → give → economy
Today, they give Democrats a 21-point advantage on the same question.
asserted
they → give → question
Against that backdrop, Democrats have a 24-point lead on whom Latino voters want to see in control of Congress, 59%-35%.
asserted
voters → have → Congress
That’s double the lead they had among Latino voters at this point in 2024, though not quite at the heights the party enjoyed at this time in 2018, according to NBC News polling from just before that election.
uncertain
party → ’ → election
Nearly a fifth of Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 say they do not prefer a Republican-controlled Congress, with 14% saying they support Democrats and 8% unsure in their preference.
asserted
% → back → preference
The shifts come after the Republican Party made Trump’s 2024 gains among Latino voters central to its plans to keep the House majority.
asserted
gains → come → majority
In Florida and Texas, the party drew new, heavily Latino districts that looked deep red by the 2024 results — but many are shaping up to be competitive in the midterms as Latino voters’ preferences have changed.
asserted
preferences → draw → midterms
Statewide races in Texas, Nevada and more will also be shaped by the evolving Latino vote, though it will not move as one bloc everywhere in the country.
asserted
it → shape → country
The poll results, collected Sept. 21-28, “indicate a striking reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters and point to trouble ahead for Republican candidates in the midterms,” said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Micah Roberts and his firm, Public Opinion Strategies.
asserted
who → collect → Roberts
Latino voters comprised around a tenth of the total vote in recent midterm elections.
asserted
voters → comprise → elections
Roberts referred to Latino voters as “the swingiest of swing groups,” calling the reversal since 2024 “stunning.”
“What we can really say from this data is that 2024 was the outlier,” he said, adding: “Trump is a central figure.
asserted
Trump → refer → data
He’s had real consequences on our politics, and without his presence, I think none of these changes would be evident in the data among Latinos.
asserted
none → have → Latinos
But the results among Latino voters are not all good news for Democrats, who have not seen their party’s image improve in two years.
asserted
image → see → years
And while Democrats have a midterm lead, Republicans are pulling more Latino support than in any NBC News poll before the 2024 election cycle, too, dating back to 2012.
asserted
Republicans → have → 2012
“Despite a more favorable environment for Democrats, any Democratic gains this November will be driven largely more by opposition to Trump and the economic environment than by support for Democrats,” Arroyo-Cardona said.
asserted
Cardona → drive → Democrats
Latino voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the president’s handling of the cost of living (78%), the economy (74%), foreign policy (68%) and immigration (69%).
asserted
voters → disapprove → living
Trump’s best issue of the five tested is border security — where 39% approve and 58% disapprove of his handling.
asserted
% → test → handling
His marks on foreign policy, the economy and cost of living are significantly lower than where then-President Joe Biden sat with Latino voters in September 2022, when Democrats had a better-than-expected midterm result despite losing control of the House.
asserted
Democrats → sit → House
Then, 60% disapproved of Biden’s handling of the cost of living and 54% disapproved of his handling of the economy.
asserted
% → disapprove → economy
Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Latino voters say the president’s policies have hurt economic conditions, compared with 23% who say his policies have helped and 11% who say they haven’t made much of a difference.
asserted
they → say → difference
Among Latino independents, just 10% believe his policies have helped the economy, while 72% believe his policies have hurt it.
asserted
policies → believe → it
Meanwhile, inflation and the cost of living ranked as the most important issue to 33% of Latino voters.
asserted
inflation → rank → voters
That made it the top issue in the survey — and a majority (52%) ranked it as the most or second-most important issue.
asserted
majority → make → issue
Latino voters who say the cost of living is the most important issue also prefer a Democratic Congress by 22 points.
asserted
cost → say → points
That’s a shift from the 2024 poll, when Republicans had a 4-point edge among these voters.
asserted
Republicans → ’ → voters
A sizable majority of Latinos (63%) say their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, while 25% say it is staying even and 11% say it is going up faster than the cost of living, similar to findings in 2024.
asserted
it → say → 2024
Luisa Santiago, a 59-year-old Florida retiree who participated in the survey, told NBC News in a subsequent interview that she voted for Trump in 2024 after a lifetime of voting for Democrats and convinced many of her friends to do the same.
asserted
she → participate → same
She was frustrated with the Democrats on the economy and on transgender issues.
asserted
She → frustrate → issues
“It was a big deal when we voted for Republicans, and then we feel like it was a complete mistake,” she said, calling Trump a “disappointment.”
asserted
she → vote → Trump
“I’m more embarrassed than my friends because I was the one who convinced them to vote for him,” she added.
asserted
she → ’m → him
Santiago lambasted the president’s deportation policies as “brutal” and “cold,” while also saying the difficult economic climate is weighing heavily on her and her family.
asserted
climate → lambast → her
While immigration didn’t rank as highly on the priority list, Latino voters expressed similar frustration with Trump’s hard-edged deportation policies.
asserted
voters → rank → policies
Two-thirds say Trump’s immigration enforcement measures have gone too far, 22% say he’s struck the right approach, and 9% say he hasn’t gone far enough.
asserted
he → say → approach
…and 35 more, not listed.
The Aporia
