Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
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that → welcome → House
In today’s edition, Scott Bland breaks down the key numbers to know from our new national poll of the Latino electorate.
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Plus, Sahil Kapur dives into Democrats’ lingering divisions over transgender issues.
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— Adam Wollner
3 takeaways from our new poll of Latino voters
Analysis by Scott Bland
Latino voters’ swing toward President Donald Trump was one of the defining trends of the 2024 election.
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swing → define → election
Their swing back could define the 2026 midterms, too.
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swing → define → midterms
That’s the broad takeaway from the NBC News/Telemundo poll that came out Sunday, which showed Democrats with a 24-point lead among Latino registered voters on a 2026 ballot test.
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That’s a double-digit turnaround from the 2024 edition of the survey — and it comes after Republicans in Florida and Texas made big redistricting bets on extending the party’s results in the last election.
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Republicans → ’ → election
The economy is the driving factor.
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economy → drive → ?
Immigration and border security are still important to many Latino voters, but their top issue is the cost of living, and Trump’s inability to follow through on his campaign promise to lower prices is biting his party.
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inability → follow → party
Latino voters gave Trump a 4-percentage-point edge over Kamala Harris in 2024 on who they thought would do a better job handling the economy.
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they → give → economy
Today, they give Democrats a 21-point advantage on the same question.
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That’s a big reason almost a quarter (22%) of Latino Trump voters said they’re not planning to back Republicans in the midterms, with 14% choosing Democrats and 8% undecided from that group.
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Again, it’s not a leading issue when voters have to rank them, but Latino voters have strong feelings about Trump’s immigration agenda.
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voters → ’ → agenda
Two-thirds say his enforcement policies have gone too far.
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policies → say → ?
Only 39% approve of his handling of border security and 30% approve on immigration overall.
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% → approve → immigration
Meanwhile, 31% of Latino voters say they or someone close to them started carrying ID because of concerns about getting swept up by ICE enforcement operations, and 27% say they know someone who has been deported or detained by ICE since Trump’s second term began.
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term → say → ICE
Just like in the overall electorate, Latino women lean more Democratic than Latino men.
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women → lean → men
And while the sample was small, Latino voters from Florida were less likely to back Democrats than Latino voters elsewhere — something to keep in mind on election night, when it would be unwise to expect uniform swings from 2024 across different regions.
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it → back → regions
Related read: How the shooting death of a Houston father is igniting Latino politics in Texas, by Natasha Korecki
Trump-district Democrats draw blowback from Human Rights Campaign over trans rhetoric
By Sahil Kapur
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The country’s largest LGBTQ rights group is criticizing some Democrats who are adopting what they see as anti-transgender rhetoric in their campaigns, a point of tension as the party wrestles with how to handle the issue heading into the 2026 election.
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party → criticize → election
They include Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, who said in a recent ad, “I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools because parents know what’s best for their kids, and boys should not play in girls’ sports.”
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boys → include → sports
They also include Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., who is similarly running in a red-leaning district that Donald Trump carried in the last election.
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In a recent ad, Davis cited a North Carolina law that prohibits trans women and girls from playing on female sports teams, saying there are “real concerns about fairness and safety” for “women and girls in sports.”
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that → cite → sports
Human Rights Campaign President Kelley Robinson told reporters today that those candidates are “doing too much and getting too little” with their strategies.
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candidates → tell → strategies
“You don’t have to sacrifice any member of our community to win in these races, to have a message that resonates with voters,” Robinson said at a breakfast in Washington.
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“You’ve got Marcy Kaptur, who not only is bad on the message, but she’s also bad on the policy.
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I mean, she voted for a bill that would have put forced outing in place nationally.
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She’s somebody that hasn’t been with us on either of those sides, so she’s not someone that we’re supporting this cycle,” Robinson said.
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Meanwhile, Robinson praised former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who is running again for the Senate in Ohio.
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Brown has sought to reframe the debate, featuring a voter in an ad who says: “With everything going on, that’s what they’re talking about?”
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“Sherrod Brown, on the other hand, I think, did a great job in his response ad that we worked with him pretty closely on — in stating what the laws are in Ohio now and reaffirming his support from the community and then, most importantly, letting voters talk for themselves,” Robinson said.
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In light of the criticism, Kaptur campaign spokesperson Kylie Blitzer said in a statement: “Marcy set the record straight for NW Ohio voters on where she stands: giving parents more say in the classroom and ensuring parents, coaches, and local sports associations — not politicians in Washington — set the rules in their communities to ensure girls’ sports stay fair.
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sports → say → communities
She is focused on lowering costs and standing up to special interests using their big money and outsized influence to tilt the playing field in their favor.
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A Davis spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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spokesperson → respond → comment
Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not advised 2026 candidates to take any particular approach on trans issues, according to a person familiar with the committee’s thinking, who said it is “supportive of each candidate messaging as they see fit” in their districts while simply encouraging them to “explain to voters where they stand.”
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they → advise → voters
Where the Human Rights Campaign and the Democrats they are criticizing agree is that the GOP attacks are effective if left unanswered.
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attacks → criticize → ?
But they disagree over how to answer them.
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Robinson argued that the “core failure” of Democrats and Kamala Harris in 2024 was “the lack of a direct response.”
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failure → argue → response
She said of 2026: “We’ve given counsel and guidance that’s really very clear.
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Address the attack head-on, pivot to your values — the things that you want voters to know about.
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voters → address → that
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
