Brazil's presidential race heads to Lula–Bolsonaro run-off as right gains ground
RIO DE JANEIRO —Brazil's presidential race is heading to a runoff between left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro after neither candidate secured the more than 50% of valid votes needed to win outright.
The race was tight, with Bolsonaro finishing ahead of Lula in Sunday's first-round election.
asserted
Bolsonaro → head → election
With over 98% vote counted, Flavio Bolsonaro leads with over 47% of the vote and Lula holds second place with 44% of the vote.
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Lula → count → vote
If that sounds like déjà -vú, it's because in many ways, this election is a rerun: Lula narrowly defeated Bolsonaro's father, former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, in 2022.
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Lula → sound → 2022
Jair Bolsonaro is now serving a 27-year prison sentence under house arrest after being convicted of plotting to overturn that election and prevent Lula from taking office.
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Bolsonaro → serve → office
Flávio has pledged to carry on his father's legacy.
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Flávio → pledge → legacy
But Sunday's results also pointed to a broader rightward shift in Brazilian politics, with the Bolsonaro camp performing strongly across the country.
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camp → point → country
Lula supporters gathered in a downtown Rio de Janeiro plaza cheered as the results came in, but also voiced apprehension about the runoff.
The presidential candidates who came in third, fourth, and fifth place are all right-wing, suggesting that Bolsonaro could have a natural pool of voters to draw from in the runoff.
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Bolsonaro → gather → runoff
That could set the stage for another extremely tight contest on October 25.
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That → set → October
Brazilians also chose governors and state and federal lawmakers Sunday, with early results showing that the right also made significant gains in Congress, particularly in the Senate.
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right → choose → Senate
That could give Bolsonaro a stronger political base if he wins the presidency.
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he → give → presidency
Lula, 80, is aiming for his fourth nonconsecutive term and has pledged to continue broad social spending and to stand up to Trump's aggressive policies toward Latin America.
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Lula → aim → America
Bolsonaro, 45, pledges to slash the deficit and realign the country's foreign policy with Washington.
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Bolsonaro → pledge → Washington
The result suggests Lula will now have to do more than defend his record: he will need to rebuild the broad coalition that returned him to power in 2022, including among younger voters who have shown less enthusiasm for his campaign.
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who → suggest → campaign
This year's presidential campaign featured smaller rallies compared to past years, perhaps because both of the candidates felt like known quantities to voters.
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both → feature → voters
"I think the campaign feels more muted because people are tired of fighting," said 38-year-old nutritionist Raysa Tavares after she voted Sunday afternoon in the Rio de Janeiro favela of Vidigal.
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she → think → Vidigal
Businessman Caio Farias, 37, who voted in Rio's upscale neighborhood of Leblon, said that he preferred other right-wing candidates to Bolsonaro, but voted for Bolsonaro in an effort to try to get the election over in one round.
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he → vote → round
Now, Brazilians are gearing up for another three weeks of campaigning.
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Brazilians → gear → campaigning
In the 2022 election, the second round of the election saw a sharp uptick in political violence, with dozens of people physically attacking each other for political reasons, Brazilian news site Pública reported.
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Pública → see → reasons
Beyond the fact that this year's contest features a younger Bolsonaro, there's something else setting it apart from the last one: Trump is in the White House, with big ambitions for drawing politics in Latin America to the right.
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Trump → feature → right
Lula has accused the United States of trying to meddle in Brazil's election, which the U.S. State Department has denied.
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Department → accuse → which
Bolsonaro rallies have featured American flags and a giant inflatable doll of Trump holding a jailed Lula, while Lula has campaigned on the idea of protecting Brazilian sovereignty from foreign interference—a rarely-heard watchword in 2022.
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Lula → feature → 2022
In Rio on election day, voters could be seen on the streets both with Trump T-shirts and "out with Trump" stickers.
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voters → see → Trump
The topic of Brazil's relationship with the United States is sure to feature in second-round campaigning, as are domestic themes of security policy, corruption, and the economy, which polls say are top of voters' minds.
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polls → feature → minds
But the first-round results have added another defining issue to the runoff: whether Brazil wants to continue with Lula or embrace the broader rightward shift that emerged from Sunday's vote.
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that → add → vote
The Aporia
