President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is facing Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the man he narrowly defeated four years ago, Jair Bolsonaro.
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he → face → man
Flávio, a 45-year-old senator, is carrying his father's political movement into Sunday's election.
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Flávio → carry → election
Jair Bolsonaro is now serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup to overturn that loss.
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Bolsonaro → serve → loss
His son has promised to pardon him if elected.
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son → promise → him
The younger Bolsonaro says he is "a more moderate Bolsonaro," but has voiced few policy differences from his father.
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he → say → father
He pledges to pardon his father over the coup conviction, has cast doubt on humans' responsibility for climate change, and supports making it easier for Brazilians to buy guns.
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Brazilians → pledge → guns
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth presidential term.
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Lula → seek → term
The result will determine whether Brazil stays with Lula's left-leaning government or returns the Bolsonaro movement to the presidency.
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Brazil → determine → presidency
The stakes extend well beyond the two families.
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stakes → extend → families
The next president is expected to nominate four of 11 Supreme Court justices, giving the winner a significant influence over the court for years to come.
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president → expect → years
The next president will also shape Brazil's economy and environmental policy, its relationship with the United States, and the future of its young democracy.
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president → shape → democracy
Here's what you need to know about Brazil's Oct. 4 election.
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you → need → election
The election could stretch into late October
Polls suggest a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro among a field of presidential candidates.
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Polls → stretch → candidates
If no candidate for president or governor receives more than 50% of the valid votes Sunday, the two candidates with the most votes will continue to a runoff on Oct. 25.
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candidates → receive → Oct.
Brazil uses electronic voting machines and typically counts the results within hours.
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Brazil → use → hours
By Sunday night, it will likely be clear who is headed to a runoff — and how strongly each candidate performed in the first round.
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candidate → head → round
The Bolsonaro name is carrying a lot of baggage
Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election to Lula by a narrow margin and then became the central figure in an effort to reject the result.
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Bolsonaro → carry → result
He is now serving a sentence for plotting a coup to overturn that loss, a scheme that included a plan to assassinate Lula, according to police.
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that → serve → police
The younger Bolsonaro has made clear that he intends to stand by his father.
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intends → make → father
His pledge to pardon Jair if elected has turned the former president's legal fate into a campaign issue — and raised broader questions about the consequences of a Bolsonaro return to power for Brazil's democratic institutions.
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pledge → pardon → institutions
Lula was jailed on corruption and money laundering charges in 2018, but the Supreme Court annulled his convictions in 2021 on procedural grounds.
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Court → jail → grounds
The episode remains a point of contention in Brazilian politics.
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episode → remain → politics
His supporters point to other parts of his record, including reductions in poverty and efforts to protect the Amazon rainforest.
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supporters → point → rainforest
Both political camps inspire intensely loyal supporters — and fierce opposition.
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camps → inspire → supporters
Polarization has remained high since the political and economic crisis of the mid-2010s, after which, said Federal University of Paraná political scientist Fábio Vasconcellos, "it became very difficult for any president to reach the higher approval ratings of previous decades."
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president → remain → decades
Domestic issues could shape the vote
For all the attention on the Bolsonaro family and the battle over Brazil's political direction, voters are also focused on problems much closer to home.
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voters → shape → home
Bolsonaro supports a hardline approach to crime-fighting that he's suggested could include joint work with the U.S. military, while Lula has favored operations targeting the financiers of gangs and voiced skepticism of outside countries influencing Brazil's security policies.
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Lula → support → policies
Voters also worry about corruption.
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Voters → worry → corruption
Media and police investigations in recent weeks have revealed allegedly improper ties between a jailed ex-banker known for bribery and Supreme Court justices and other top politicians.
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investigations → reveal → bribery
Bolsonaro himself took money from the banker and is being investigated on money laundering charges, which he denies.
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he → take → which
And voters worry about Brazil's economy.
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voters → worry → economy
Lula's embrace of public spending helped drive economic growth early in his government, but growth has since slowed.
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growth → drive → government
Bolsonaro argues Brazil's hefty national debt is holding back the economy and a top campaign adviser has pledged to reduce it by slashing spending along the lines of Argentina's Javier Milei.
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adviser → argue → Milei
Trump looms large over the vote
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Trump → loom → vote
The United States has become an unusually visible presence in this year's campaign.
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States → become → campaign
Rallies for Flávio have featured U.S. flags, reflecting his pledge to align more closely with the Trump administration.
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Rallies → feature → administration
A September cover of a leading Brazilian political magazine captured the perceived U.S. interest in the election with an image of a giant U.S. spaceship hovering over a small Brazilian polling site.
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cover → lead → site
The Bolsonaros have for years sought close ties to Trump.
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Bolsonaros → seek → Trump
Flávio's brother, Eduardo, is living in the United States, where he has urged Trump to take action against Supreme Court justices who oversaw his father's coup-plot trial.
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who → live → trial
Last year, Trump cited that trial as a justification for hiking tariffs on Brazil by 40%.
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Trump → cite → %
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
