The blue wave is coming.
asserted
wave → come → ?
At this rate, Democrats may want to stop ordering yard signs and start ordering life jackets.
And look, I get it.
uncertain
I → want → it
The latest Fox News Power Rankings has Democrats ahead by 11 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.
asserted
Democrats → have → ballot
Reuters/Ipsos has them ahead by among registered voters.
asserted
them → have → voters
President Donald Trump’s approval rating is struggling.
asserted
rating → struggle → ?
Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage.
asserted
Democrats → have → advantage
If you’re a Democrat, there is a lot to like.
asserted
you → ’re → ?
If you’re a Republican, maybe skip ahead a few paragraphs.
asserted
you → ’re → ?
But I’m a pollster.
asserted
I → ’m → ?
And when everyone starts looking at the same numbers and reaching the same conclusion, I get a little itchy.
asserted
I → start → conclusion
Not because I don’t believe the polls.
asserted
I → believe → polls
I do.
asserted
I → do → ?
The question is whether we’re asking them to tell us more than they actually can.
asserted
they → ask → more
The polls are telling us pretty clearly that a lot of Americans are unhappy with Trump.
asserted
lot → tell → Trump
What I don’t think they’ve answered yet is whether those same Americans believe in the alternative.
But I’m a pollster.
asserted
I → think → alternative
And when everyone starts looking at the same numbers and reaching the same conclusion, I get a little itchy.
asserted
I → start → conclusion
In 2018, Democrats had something wonderfully simple – Healthcare.
asserted
Democrats → have → something
Not a word tested in a focus group until everyone in the room agreed it was "accessible."
asserted
it → test → room
Republicans had tried to repeal Obamacare.
asserted
Republicans → try → Obamacare
Voters worried about losing coverage and protections for pre-existing conditions.
asserted
Voters → worry → conditions
You could explain the stakes in about eight seconds.
uncertain
You → explain → seconds
More importantly, you could finish the sentence:
I’m voting because ________.
Healthcare filled in the blank.
And it did.
uncertain
it → finish → blank
Healthcare was the most important issue for more voters than any other issue in polling leading into the 2018 midterms.
asserted
Healthcare → lead → midterms
So, what fills in the blank in 2026?
asserted
what → fill → 2026
Well, Democrats have a word.
asserted
Democrats → have → word
And it is having quite a year.
asserted
it → have → year
People who charge $24 for a chopped salad are presumably for affordability.
asserted
who → charge → affordability
So, the problem isn’t whether voters care about affordability.
asserted
voters → care → affordability
They care.
asserted
They → care → ?
The question is: What does affordability mean Democrats are actually going to do?
Because affordability describes the problem beautifully.
asserted
affordability → mean → problem
So, what fills in the blank in 2026?
asserted
what → fill → 2026
Well, Democrats have a word.
asserted
Democrats → have → word
And it is having quite a year.
asserted
it → have → year
It doesn’t necessarily describe the solution.
asserted
It → describe → solution
That’s where, to me, the numbers get interesting.
asserted
numbers → ’ → me
Pew asked Americans which party’s economic policies they agreed with more.
asserted
they → ask → policies
Remember the environment we’re talking about.
asserted
we → remember → environment
Only 24% rated the economy good or excellent.
asserted
% → rat → economy
Six in 10 said Trump’s economic policies had made economic conditions worse.
asserted
conditions → say → ?
Trump is struggling.
asserted
Trump → struggle → ?
…and 85 more, not listed.
The Aporia
