Although our critics might disagree, we seek to avoid false equivocation at Silver Bulletin.
uncertain
we → disagree → Bulletin
Generally, when a party is ahead in our forecast, we’ll highlight why our model thinks they’re winning.
asserted
they → highlight → forecast
Democrats have the better hand to play in the Senate; that’s been clear for a couple of weeks now.
asserted
that → have → weeks
At the same time, we try to cover our bases.
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we → try → bases
FLIPR’s forecasts are probabilistic, and we feel a duty to explain the downside and upside scenarios.
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we → feel → scenarios
There remains a very real chance — about 1 in 4 — that Republicans keep the Senate despite Democrats’ seeming momentum.
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Republicans → remain → momentum
And they have two basic ways they can do that: by holding Democrats to fewer than the four pickups they need, or by “stealing” one or more currently D-held seats.
asserted
they → have → seats
Alternatively, Democrats could still win the Senate even if they do lose some of their own seats by flipping more than four GOP-held states.
uncertain
they → win → states
Senate seats used to flip in both directions in the midterms.
asserted
seats → use → midterms
The 1978 election was the most absurd example: Republicans picked up eight Senate seats from Democrats (dark red) while Democrats flipped five seats to their side (dark blue).
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Democrats → pick → side
Not a bad night, but Democrats retained a clear majority.
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Democrats → retain → majority
However, in the past five midterms, a “double flip” has happened only once, in 2018.
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flip → happen → 2018
On the surface, that looks like a really weird result.
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that → look → result
Democrats won the popular vote for the U.S. House by more than 8 points, flipping dozens of seats in the process.
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Democrats → win → process
They also flipped GOP Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada.
asserted
They → flip → Arizona
But they lost four Senate seats of their own: North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and Florida.
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they → lose → own
This seeming weirdness, though, was well predicted by models.
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weirdness → seem → models
Senators serve six-year terms, of course, and that’s an eternity in politics.
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that → serve → politics
Their terms straddled the election of Donald Trump, whose win signaled increasing political polarization and more specifically, a growing divide between college-educated voters in the cities and white working-class voters in the rural heartland.
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win → straddle → heartland
Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri fit the pattern, with the red shift among rural whites outweighing the strongly blue background environment.
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shift → fit → environment
Florida didn’t so much, but Bill Nelson’s loss there marked the beginning of a death spiral for Democrats in the state.
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loss → do → state
I won’t spend much more time on why “double flips” are becoming less common because you probably know the story.
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you → spend → story
Perpetually increasing polarization means that: 1) fewer states are competitive; 2) there’s less and less ticket-splitting, so races for Congress are more predictable based on presidential voting and 3) “candidate effects,” including incumbency, are weaker, so there’s less opportunity for a candidate with strong personal qualities to overcome the partisan tide.
asserted
candidate → increase → tide
Instead, let’s focus on these questions: 1) What is the chance of a “double flip” happening this year in the Senate, with both parties picking up at least one seat?
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parties → let → seat
2) How screwed are Democrats if this happens: could they plausibly lose one of their own seats and still take over the Senate?
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they → happen → Senate
3) What should we think about Minnesota in particular, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is in a surprisingly close race in polls against former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya?
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Flanagan → think → Tafoya
A double flip is plausible this year, but not a good bet at even money
This part of the equation is easy: Democrats are extremely likely to pick up at least one currently Republican-held seat.
asserted
Democrats → pick → seat
The Aporia
