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Met Office issues November weather forecast as London braces for 'Godzilla' El Niño and polar vortex impact

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Cite

Palmer, J. (2026, October 5). Met Office issues November weather forecast as London braces for 'Godzilla' El Niño and polar vortex impact. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/polar-vortex-el-nino-weather-met-office-november-b1299526.html

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Evening Standard · collected 2026-10-05 · by Joe Palmer

Quick Summary

The Met Office forecasts above-average temperatures and changing weather patterns for late October and early November, influenced by a strong "Godzilla" El Niño expected to bring stormier conditions similar to those experienced during the winters of 2015 and 2016. Grahame Madge from the Met Office warned that El Niño can disrupt the polar vortex, leading to colder winter weather in Europe and increasing the likelihood of extreme cold, wind, and snow for the UK this year. Energy providers advise people to prepare by stockpiling essential supplies including food, water, medicine, and extra blankets.
Written by AI on 2026-10-05, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The Met Office recently issued a November weather forecast predicting above average temperatures and changeable weather patterns for late October and early November. This follows one of the warmest Septembers since records began in 1884. Experts attribute this unusually warm period to an exceptionally strong "Godzilla" El Niño, which is expected to bring wetter and stormier conditions.

Grahame Madge, a Met Office climate spokesman, explained that there are established links between El Niño and UK weather during autumn and winter, often resulting in stormy autumns and colder winters. Previous strong El Niños, such as those in 2015 and 2016, led to severe storms and some of the worst flooding on record.

According to a research paper from the US government's NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, El Niño can cause the polar vortex, which typically traps cold air near the Arctic, to break down. This disruption allows cold air to spill southward into North America and Europe, potentially leading to extreme weather conditions in these regions.

Written for “El Nino Impact Forecast” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 El Nino Impact Forecast
Environment · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
Hedges 4 of 15 claims Outlet record 64/100
“While both articles discuss weather changes in London related to an El Niño pattern, they describe different time periods and conditions (forecast vs. actual occurrence).”
Daily Mail
Hedges 7 of 27 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects and time frames of El Niño's impact, with Article A focusing on November weather forecast for London due to 'Godzilla' El Niño, while Article B discusses the intensification of a super El Niño into spring next year.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 1 of 11 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss related climate predictions for London, but they refer to different time frames and details in their forecasts.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 1 of 19 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different forecast periods and impacts related to El Niño, with Article A focusing on past events in London during previous winters, while Article B discusses current predictions for late October and early November.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 2 of 5 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different time periods and temperature trends, with Article A focusing on October and B predicting November impacts of El Niño.”
BBC News
Hedges 5 of 19 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of weather forecasts and actual temperature changes occurring at distinct times.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
12
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
1 of 12 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
64/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Environment
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-05 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 8234 article(s) · 73 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 73 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Joe Palmer
15 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 One day, as their memory improves, I will show them Damilola’s picture and tell them his story which changed the nation.”
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🔮 A new long-range prediction from the Met Office forecasts “above average” temperatures and “changeable” weather patterns throughout late October and early November.
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Also by Joe Palmer
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 15 articles by Joe Palmer →

Topics

El Niño Met Office NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory the Met Office

Subjects

Grahame Madge PERSON · 1× Met Office ORG · 1× NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory ORG · 1× the Met Office ORG · 1×

Narrative

The polar vortex is a band of strong westerly winds that circles around the North Pole and traps bitterly cold air near the Arctic - but a weakened or disrupted vortex becomes "wavy" and allows cold air to spill southward into North America and Europe.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-05
🔮 A new long-range prediction from the Met Office forecasts “above average” temperatures and “changeable” weather patterns throughout late October and early November.

Claims (12 extracted, 1 hedged)

A new long-range prediction from the Met Office forecasts “above average” temperatures and “changeable” weather patterns throughout late October and early November. asserted
prediction → forecast → October
It follows one of the warmest Septembers since records began in 1884. asserted
records → follow → 1884
Experts have said this spike in heat is due to be accompanied by a period of wetter, stormier weather as a result of an unusually-strong “Godzilla” El Niño this year. asserted
spike → say → Niño
Met Office climate spokesman Grahame Madge said: “There are known general teleconnections between El Niño and UK weather in autumn and winter. asserted
Madge → say → autumn
These can include a stormier autumn and a colder end to winter.” asserted
These → include → winter
The winters of 2015 and 2016, which also coincided with a strong El Niño, brought a series of major storms and what experts described as some of the worst flooding on record. asserted
experts → coincide → record
The impact of El Niño Experts warned the natural climate phenomenon, characterised by a warming of the pacific ocean, could be one of the worst on record, causing a number of adverse weather effects. uncertain
phenomenon → warn → effects
A research paper published by the US government's NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory concluded that El Niño "tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex, especially in late winter". asserted
Niño → publish → winter
The polar vortex is a band of strong westerly winds that circles around the North Pole and traps bitterly cold air near the Arctic - but a weakened or disrupted vortex becomes "wavy" and allows cold air to spill southward into North America and Europe. asserted
air → circle → America
This increases the likelihood that the UK will face extremely cold, windy and snowy conditions over the winter months. asserted
UK → increase → months
Read More The energy provider said people should have at least three days’ worth of food and essentials stockpiled. asserted
worth → read → food
They added that emergency supplies should include medicines, drinking water, non-perishable food and snacks, and extra blankets. asserted
supplies → add → medicines
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