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How the last Super El Niño hit London - and what it could mean for the capital this winter

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Place, T. (2026, October 1). How the last Super El Niño hit London - and what it could mean for the capital this winter. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/super-el-nino-london-winter-weather-storm-katie-met-office-b1299046.html

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Evening Standard · collected 2026-10-01 · by Tom Place

Quick Summary

In 2015-2016, London experienced severe weather during a significant El Niño event, with Storm Desmond causing high winds that led to a death in north London and damage like the leaning Trafalgar Square Christmas tree. The storm resulted in over 100,000 power outages across southern England. This winter, meteorologists predict an even stronger El Niño could bring more severe storms and colder temperatures to the UK, with peak impact expected as the event develops further this year.
Written by AI on 2026-10-01, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

In December 2015, an El Niño event brought Storm Desmond to the UK, causing severe gales and record-breaking rainfall across much of the country. Although northern England, Scotland, and Wales were most affected, London experienced significant impacts including high winds that killed a 90-year-old man near Finchley Central station when he was blown into a moving bus. The storm also caused the 60-foot Trafalgar Square Christmas Tree to lean noticeably, necessitating safety inspections by officials. Climate experts predict that this winter’s developing El Niño could be even more severe than the last "super" event in 2015/16.

Written for “Super El Nino Impact London Winter” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Super El Nino Impact London Winter
Environment · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 5% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
Hedges 2 of 11 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different time periods and weather conditions affecting London.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 2 of 11 claims Outlet record 64/100
“Article A describes an immediate weather forecast for London in September 2026, while Article B discusses historical impacts of El Niño events and forecasts for a colder winter ahead.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 2 of 5 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles describe different weather periods: one about potential severe winter conditions due to El Niño in autumn and winter of 2026, while the other is about a brief cold spell specifically in early October 2026.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 1 of 12 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different forecast periods and impacts related to El Niño, with Article A focusing on past events in London during previous winters, while Article B discusses current predictions for late October and early November.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
19
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
5%
1 of 19 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
64/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Environment
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-01 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 8127 article(s) · 73 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 73 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Tom Place
153 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 Despite Durkan's conviction and sentencing, the investigation remains active, and the Met want to hear from women in Islington and north London between January 2020 and March 2026 who may have noticed unusual activity around their home, especially late at night or in the early hours of the morning.
🔮 Property management company, Prime Property Management, told affected residents: “Given the immediate need to vacate, you will unfortunately have to incur the alternative accommodation costs yourself in the first instance.
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🔮 “I couldn’t just go, ‘guys it’s me, vote for me, but that’s all I can do really’.
🔮 The Labour leader responded, saying both Labour and the Conservative councillors could gauge concern through “many emails” and in-person conversations with Jewish residents and leaders of Jewish organisations. Cllr Rawlings also claimed that support for The Green Party policy essentially amounted to telling Jewish people to “disown their communities to participate in British politics”. Before the final vote, Barnet’s sole Green councillor Charli Thompson said there was “highly inaccurate” information in Cllr Rawlings’ claims, adding: “I would argue that we need to be voting on motions with accurate information in them – not falsehoods”.
🔮 This is a breaking news story and will be updated.
2026-10-29 · assertive framing · Legendary actor Sir Patrick Stewart dies aged 86
Also by Tom Place
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 153 articles by Tom Place →

Topics

El Niño England London Scotland Storm Desmond

Subjects

England GPE · 5× London GPE · 4× Scotland GPE · 2× Carlisle GPE · 1× Cumbria GPE · 1× Lancashire GPE · 1× Met ORG · 1× Preston PERSON · 1× Rotherhithe GPE · 1× Wales GPE · 1×

Narrative

Grahame Madge, a Met Office climate spokesman, said: “The El Niño event is still developing in the tropical Pacific and already it has surpassed the magnitude of previous events including the one in 2015/16. “Globally, an El Niño event has several impacts, including altering rainfall patterns and increasing global temperature overall.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-01
🔮 The last “super” El Niño to hit London a decade ago brought devastating storms and freezing weather, with experts fearing this winter’s will bring even worse.

Claims (19 extracted, 1 hedged)

The last “super” El Niño to hit London a decade ago brought devastating storms and freezing weather, with experts fearing this winter’s will bring even worse. asserted
winter → hit → worse
The national forecaster is forecasting a stormier start than usual to autumn and winter, and colder spells at the end of winter. asserted
forecaster → forecast → winter
How have previous ‘El Niño’ events impacted London? asserted
events → impact → London
London has been battered by El Niños in a number of previous winters, most significantly in 2015 and 2016. asserted
London → batter → 2015
The event brought Storm Desmond to the UK in early December, with severe gales and record-breaking rainfall hitting much of the country. asserted
gales → bring → country
Though the worst affected areas by Storm Desmond were in northern England, Scotland, and Wales, the capital also felt the force of the storm’s severe winds. asserted
capital → affect → winds
A 90-year-old man died near Finchley Central station in north London, when a gust of wind apparently blew him into the side of a moving bus, according to a Met spokesperson at the time. uncertain
gust → die → time
The high winds were also blamed for the 60ft Trafalgar Square Christmas Tree leaning at a noticeable angle. Read More asserted
Tree → blame → More
Inspectors had to carry out checks on the tree to ensure it was not a risk to the public. asserted
it → have → public
Elsewhere in the UK, the record-breaking rainfall caused severe flooding across Lancashire and Cumbria, affecting around 5,200 homes. asserted
rainfall → break → homes
Several major roads across the north of England and Scotland were also flooded, and there was major disruption to rail services in the north due to a landslide closing a section of the West Coast mainline between Preston and Carlisle. asserted
landslide → flood → Preston
Over 100,000 homes in northern England lost power due to the storm. asserted
homes → lose → storm
The storm brought intense gale-force gusts which peaked at over 100 mph along the southern coast of England and up to 85 mph inland. asserted
which → bring → England
One X user shared a photograph of a trampoline which had been lifted from a garden by high winds and landed upside down at a bus stop in Rotherhithe. asserted
which → share → Rotherhithe
This winter’s outlook Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Prediction at the Met Office, said: “We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event. asserted
Niño → say → months
“The fact that it has already exceeded previous records - with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year - shows the enormity of this El Niño. ” asserted
it → exceed → Niño
Scientists are still assessing whether the impacts will be in proportion to its magnitude, but we are already seeing expected effects worldwide. asserted
we → assess → effects
” As the El Niño approaches its winter peak, there is an increased likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions across the UK during autumn and early winter, with an increased risk of cold snaps during the late winter. asserted
Niño → approach → winter
Grahame Madge, a Met Office climate spokesman, said: “The El Niño event is still developing in the tropical Pacific and already it has surpassed the magnitude of previous events including the one in 2015/16. “Globally, an El Niño event has several impacts, including altering rainfall patterns and increasing global temperature overall. asserted
event → say → temperature
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