Right-wing Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has exceeded expectations in the first-round vote with a slight lead over the incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, triggering a run-off later this month.
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Bolsonaro → exceed → off
“Brazil wants change, and I am very happy with the results,” Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia on Sunday as he saluted “the end of the era of [Lula’s] Workers’ Party”.
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he → want → Party
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Lula → close → election
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Lula → halt → America
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The 45-year-old son of right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year jail sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, now faces an October 25 showdown with the 80-year-old Lula, who is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term.
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who → close → term
In the run-up to Sunday’s first-round vote, a series of polls showed a close race between Lula and Bolsonaro, with the incumbent president poised to win by about 3 percentage points against his right-wing challenger.
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president → show → challenger
In a surprise result that defied opinion poll projections, Bolsonaro beat Lula with 47 percent of the vote, while Lula got 45.1 percent.
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Lula → defy → percent
Neither reached the 50 percent threshold needed to win in the first round.
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Neither → reach → round
That sets up another Lula-Bolsonaro showdown, four years after Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro.
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Lula → set → Bolsonaro
Why is Bolsonaro favoured to win Brazil’s election?
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Bolsonaro → favour → election
Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected performance is likely to buoy his campaign and may bolster Brazil’s currency and stock market, which have risen on the prospects of the business-friendly challenger.
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which → expect → challenger
Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in San Paulo, Brazil, said Lula was in a difficult position as he could not count on voters who backed one of the other 10 candidates to vote for him in the second round.
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who → say → round
“Not only is he behind now after this first round, but the other candidates who received a total of nearly 8 percent are largely centre-right, which means that the people who voted for these other candidates are very unlikely to shift for Lula,” Stuenkel told Al Jazeera.
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Stuenkel → receive → Jazeera
“So he must change his campaign tactics and above all mobilise a significant part of people who stayed at home,” he added.
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he → change → home
About 30 million Brazilians – 21 percent of the electorate – did not vote in the first round.
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Brazilians → vote → round
Al Jazeera’s Monica Yanakiew, reporting from Rio de Janeiro, said Lula supporters felt their candidate had not used social media as effectively as the right-wing camp.
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candidate → report → camp
“This is something they have to work on in the second round,” Yanakiew said.
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Yanakiew → have → round
From a historical perspective, however, such efforts are unlikely to change the outcome.
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efforts → change → outcome
“Unless something very unusual happens in the next three weeks, Flavio Bolsonaro is set to win,” Stuenkel said.
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Stuenkel → happen → weeks
“In Brazilian presidential politics, no candidate who came second in the first round ended up winning the presidency since 1989.”
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who → come → 1989
Has the Bolsonaro family taken hold of Brazil?
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family → take → Brazil
Several politicians from the Bolsonaro family have won congressional races taking place as part of the broader nationwide general elections.
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politicians → win → elections
Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of former President Jair Bolsonaro and stepmother of Flavio, won a Senate seat in the Federal District, home to the capital, Brasilia.
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Bolsonaro → win → capital
In June, the 44-year-old, who has never held government office, had a public falling out with her stepson, whom she accused of disrespecting her in lengthy videos posted on her social media.
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she → hold → media
The pair later made up.
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pair → make → ?
Ex-leader Bolsonaro’s second son Carlos Bolsonaro, 43, was the second most-voted senatorial candidate in the southern Santa Catarina state and won a seat in the Senate.
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son → vote → Senate
The fourth and younger son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, was elected to the lower house of Congress.
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son → elect → Congress
Some experts credit “antipetismo” — a trend of hostility against Lula’s PT movement — with fuelling the Bolsonaro family’s rise to political power.
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experts → credit → power
Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies while Lula’s PT got 70.
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PT → win → 70
Brazil’s presidential election carries significant regional and geopolitical implications.
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election → carry → implications
Reporting from Sao Paulo, Al Jazeera’s Lucia Newman said Lula has been “on a collision course” with United States President Donald Trump, who is a vocal and ardent supporter of the Bolsonaro camp.
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who → report → camp
“That puts Brazil in the middle of a fierce competition between Washington and China for political, diplomatic and economic dominance, especially since Brazil is a powerhouse on all these fronts,” Newman said.
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Newman → put → fronts
While Bolsonarism is strongly aligned with the US and Israel, Brazil also has a tight economic relationship with China, its largest trade partner.
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Brazil → align → China
Bolsonaro has portrayed Trump as an ally and is expected to strengthen ties with Washington if elected.
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Bolsonaro → portray → Washington
In case of a win, the younger Bolsonaro has pledged to seek a congressional amnesty for his father, who is in prison over his role in a coup plot following his election loss to Lula by 1.8 percentage points in 2022.
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who → pledge → 2022
That would need approval from both houses of Congress, which are currently dominated by conservatives.
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which → need → conservatives
Similar to Trump, the Bolsonaros have made rigged election claims.
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Bolsonaros → make → claims
The insurrection that shook Brasilia in January 2023 shared similarities with the storming of the US Capitol two years prior.
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that → shake → Capitol
Like Trump, Bolsonaro has also pledged to release his father’s supporters responsible for the coup.
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Bolsonaro → pledge → coup
Concerns about US intervention in Brazil’s domestic affairs have also loomed over the campaign.
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Concerns → loom → campaign
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
