Brazil’s closely watched presidential election is heading to a second round between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, prolonging a deeply polarised race with major implications for the country and the wider region.
asserted
election → watch → country
Brazil’s electoral court confirmed on Sunday that the two candidates will advance to a run-off on October 25 after neither won the majority needed to secure the presidency outright, with Bolsonaro leading at 55.8 million votes to Lula’s almost 53.2 million.
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Bolsonaro → confirm → Lula
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Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term after a political career spanning nearly five decades.
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Lula → close → decades
Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and is trying to return his father’s right-wing movement to power, even as the former president serves a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
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president → try → election
The election comes at a pivotal time for Latin America’s largest economy.
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election → come → economy
Brazilians are grappling with concerns over crime and the cost of living, while the country faces an increasingly tense relationship with the United States.
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country → grapple → States
The vote is also being closely watched across a region that has shifted sharply to the right in a series of recent elections.
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that → watch → elections
While a second round was widely expected, the first-round result did not play out quite as pollsters had predicted.
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pollsters → expect → ?
Brazil is heading for another Lula-Bolsonaro run-off
With nearly 99 percent of votes reported, Bolsonaro had about 47 percent of valid votes, compared with 44.9 percent for Lula.
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Bolsonaro → head → Lula
Neither reached the 50 percent threshold needed to win in the first round.
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Neither → reach → round
That sets up another Lula-Bolsonaro showdown, four years after Lula narrowly defeated former President Jair Bolsonaro.
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Lula → set → Bolsonaro
This time, he will face the former president’s eldest son.
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he → face → son
The race could be extremely close, as polling ahead of Sunday’s vote suggested Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro were roughly tied in a potential run-off.
uncertain
Lula → suggest → off
That puts voters who backed one of the other 10 candidates in the first round at the centre of the fight for the presidency over the next three weeks.
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who → put → weeks
Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together received about 5.3 million votes, have previously said they will not endorse either candidate in the run-off.
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they → receive → off
Flavio Bolsonaro did better than polls suggested
Most polls leading up to election day predicted the race would be pushed into the second round, but had Lula finishing the first round ahead of Bolsonaro.
Instead, Bolsonaro emerged with a lead of two percentage points, raising questions about why the final polls underestimated his support.
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polls → do → support
On Sunday, Bolsonaro said the results showed that Brazilians want change.
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Brazilians → say → change
Analysts told the Reuters news agency that Bolsonaro may have benefitted from “protest votes” from people who may have preferred another candidate but saw defeating Lula as the priority.
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who → tell → priority
Many had been expected to shift their support to Bolsonaro only in a second round, meaning this could have consequences for his support in three weeks.
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this → expect → weeks
“The protest vote foreshadows what is to come in the run-off,” political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters.
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Favetti → foreshadow → Reuters
“While this should benefit Flavio Bolsonaro now, his growth potential in the second round drops precisely because that support has already been front-loaded.”
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support → benefit → round
After the results came in, Lula said the votes were “unexpected” but that he would come back stronger in the run-off.
“I admit, I was convinced I would win in the first round.
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I → come → round
The game is about to start.
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game → start → ?
In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people,” the 80-year-old said.
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old → win → people
The right had a strong night in Congress, too
Bolsonaro’s surprising performance in the first round was part of a broader show of strength for Brazil’s right.
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performance → have → right
Right-wing parties, led by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL), were performing strongly in both houses of Congress, with the PL on track to emerge as the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies and making gains in the Senate.
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PL → lead → Senate
This included victories for other members of the Bolsonaro family, including former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Flavio’s stepmother, who won a Senate seat in the Federal District, her first elected office.
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who → include → District
His brother, Carlos Bolsonaro, was elected to the Senate in Santa Catarina.
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brother → elect → Catarina
The results show that the political movement built around former President Jair Bolsonaro – known as “bolsonarista” – remains a powerful electoral force, even with the former president barred from running himself.
“The fact that far-right candidates for the legislature have exceeded all expectations suggests a deeper popular grounding for the bolsonarista project than many expected,” Andre Pagliarini, an assistant professor of history and international studies at Louisiana State University and author of a book on Lula, told Al Jazeera.
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Pagliarini → show → Jazeera
“Millions of Brazilians right now evidently feel the right best reflects their values and vision for the future,” he added.
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he → feel → future
The congressional results matter beyond election night, too.
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results → matter → night
Both houses were already dominated by conservative lawmakers, and a stronger right-wing presence could make it even harder for Lula to push through his agenda if he wins another term.
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he → dominate → term
A Bolsonaro victory, meanwhile, could give him more room to pursue his own priorities, including his pledge to seek an amnesty for his father.
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victory → give → father
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