During a quick-fire Q&A at the Conservative party conference this weekend, Kemi Badenoch was asked who she would pick between Robert Jenrick or Suella Braverman.
asserted
she → ask → Jenrick
“Why do you keep offering me these?
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you → keep → these
It’s like asking if I’d rather be shot or drowned,” the Tory leader responded with her trademark directness.
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leader → ’ → directness
The Tories appear more united than they have done in years.
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they → appear → years
Part of that is because they have a common enemy to unite against: Tory defectors.
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they → have → enemy
It is not lost on Badenoch’s team that this time last year, it was a matter of when, not if, Jenrick, her erstwhile leadership rival, would try to oust her.
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Jenrick → lose → her
Mutinous Tory MPs were privately predicting her demise.
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MPs → predict → demise
But after a successful conference, Badenoch limped on – and Jenrick emerged a diminished figure who weeks later would be kicked out of the party.
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who → limp → party
His presence, however, lives on, with shadow ministers openly sharing their relief that he is no longer among their number.
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he → live → number
“Nobody knew how much we hated Robert until he left,” said one shadow cabinet member.
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member → know → Robert
“Rob going was like pulling out a splinter,” one said.
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one → go → splinter
“I miss him like I miss an abscess in my molar,” another added.
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another → miss → molar
But while the unity comes, in part, from a mutual dislike, there are of course other factors: Badenoch’s strength as a leader; the country’s yearning for stability; the constant threat of Reform UK to the party’s right.
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unity → come → right
Badenoch has been running the show for almost two years – the longest serving Tory leader since Boris Johnson – and has begun to set out her principles, writing a 30,000 word pamphlet titled The Right Way before the conference.
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Badenoch → run → conference
Tory MPs also seem to have finally realised that voters take a dim view of the party cycling through leaders at such breakneck speed, with five in the past eight years.
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party → seem → years
Nigel Farage’s woes have also given them reason for hope: while the Reform leader believes his party will recover from a difficult summer, some Tory MPs are confident that his party has peaked.
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party → give → summer
Other party insiders – possibly more plugged into what is going on in their constituencies – concede that Farage still represents a huge threat.
uncertain
Farage → go → threat
They are among those concerned about Badenoch pitching to the right.
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Badenoch → concern → right
Instead, they say that she needs to do more to win over centrist voters for the party to stand a chance of winning another election.
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party → say → election
Part of that is by focusing more on the economy and less on culture wars.
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Part → focus → wars
But we do have to be careful with our language,” one MP said.
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MP → have → language
Another added: “That’s not Kemi’s instinct.
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That → add → ?
But she does finally seem to understand it all has to be about the economy.
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it → seem → economy
That’s where we win.”
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we → ’ → ?
Badenoch believes she can “shrug off” the Liz Truss anchor and beat Reform and Labour on the economy, MPs say.
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MPs → believe → economy
Andrew Griffith, her shadow chancellor who has previously worked in business, helps the party’s credibility, they add, and Badenoch will speak more about the topic this week.
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Badenoch → work → topic
The Tory leader also polls ahead of her party, which insulates her from much internal criticism.
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which → poll → criticism
One adviser said the Tories do better when their leader is in that position – citing David Cameron and Boris Johnson – but worse when they’re behind, as Rishi Sunak was.
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Sunak → say → Cameron
Badenoch has told her top team that they have to work “day by day” to restore the party’s fortunes.
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they → tell → fortunes
Yet there is no escaping that almost two years after she was elected as leader, the Tories are still polling lower than they did in 2024 with their catastrophic general election defeat.
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they → be → defeat
“You won’t hear much from us on that,” one senior aide said.
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aide → hear → that
“The qualitative stuff is good but it’s not backed up yet by the numbers.
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it → back → numbers
We need to put on three or four points in the polls.
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We → need → polls
If we do that and gain momentum we’re back.”
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we → do → momentum
Others are hopeful that the exposure of their conference week can give them enough of a lift in the polls to help them maintain the narrative that they’re on the march.
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they → give → march
The spectre hanging over the whole affair, however, is the prospect of a snap general election.
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spectre → hang → election
Andy Burnham’s political away day at Chequers on Monday has got many Tories spooked, even though the prime minister has ruled out calling an early election.
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minister → get → election
Perhaps more in hope than expectation, shadow cabinet ministers said they did not believe Burnham would call an election.
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Burnham → say → election
“He said it would be irresponsible and it’s hard to walk that back,” said one.
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one → say → that
However, Badenoch told a bash for Tory MPs on Sunday night the party was getting ready for an election regardless.
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party → tell → election
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
