Whisper it, but when he takes to the stage in Birmingham on Sunday to deliver his flagship conference speech, Russell Findlay has cause for optimism.
asserted
Findlay → whisper → optimism
That may sound absurd when you consider that the Scottish Conservatives collapsed from second to fifth place at the Holyrood elections less than five months ago – shedding more than half of their MSPs in the process.
uncertain
Conservatives → sound → process
Of course, the loss of parliamentary influence and the right to first dibs at First Minister’s Questions still sting, but there is a growing sense among Scottish Tories that an existential threat has passed, and a shaft of light is visible.
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shaft → sting → light
The UK Conservatives’ rout at the 2024 general election signalled how damaged the brand had become – and that, coupled with Reform’s rise, meant that stemming the losses was the height of Findlay’s ambition.
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stemming → signal → ambition
Opinion polls pointed to electoral Armageddon for a party hamstrung by facing, for the first time, a serious challenge to its right.
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polls → point → right
Even Ruth Davidson in her pomp couldn’t have spared them a hiding against that backdrop.
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Davidson → spar → backdrop
So, to emerge with 12 MSPs in May was better than it might have been for the Scottish Conservatives.
uncertain
it → emerge → Conservatives
Findlay faced no internal recriminations because, by common consent, he made the best of the dire hand he was dealt.
asserted
he → face → hand
And, fortuitously, the wider political climate is so volatile that the horizon is constantly shifting.
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horizon → shift → ?
There are already breaks in the clouds for him to exploit.
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him → be → clouds
One is the burgeoning popularity of his UK leader Kemi Badenoch, another the challenges facing his domestic opponents.
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another → burgeon → opponents
Russell Findlay (left) with Kemi Badenich and Aberdeen South MP Douglas Lumsden after the Conservative by-election victory in June
Scottish Labour’s result in May was arguably worse than the Conservatives’, because it had maintained the pretence that it could win.
uncertain
it → maintain → pretence
New leader Michael Marra may be relieved to have Andy Burnham rather than Keir Starmer in Downing Street.
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Marra → have → Street
But the new PM still leads an unloved Labour government needing to take unpalatable decisions, such as ditching the pensions triple lock, to balance the books.
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PM → lead → books
As Marra’s predecessor, Anas Sarwar – and several Scottish Conservative leaders – can testify, carrying the can for a misfiring UK government is a huge handicap at Holyrood.
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carrying → testify → Holyrood
Domestically, Marra is adopting a less combative approach to an SNP government whose instincts on tax and spending Labour broadly share.
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Labour → adopt → tax
Similarly, he has softened Labour’s opposition to a second independence referendum, a move to woo moderate Yes voters that risks alienating Unionists.
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that → soften → Unionists
As John Swinney seeks to up the ante on the constitution at every turn – including by embracing Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland – pro-UK voters may conclude that the Scottish Conservatives are the only party they can rely upon.
uncertain
they → seek → Ireland
Reform, like Labour, offers mixed messages on the Union.
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Reform → offer → Union
Scottish leader Malcolm Offord was weak on independence during the election and the decision to march his MSPs out of the chamber when Swinney led a debate on the subject last week was a headline-grabbing stunt rather than meaningful opposition.
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Swinney → march → subject
It highlighted Reform’s central dilemma: does it see itself as a genuine alternative government to the SNP or an anti-establishment disruptor?
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it → highlight → SNP
Offord has struggled to make an impact when taking the former tack, most notably at FMQs, where his flat delivery and often left-field topic choices haven’t troubled Swinney.
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delivery → struggle → Swinney
The rabble-rousing approach has had some traction lately, but you can’t keep relying on performative walkouts or half-baked motions of no confidence in ministers to gain attention.
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you → rouse → attention
Reform must now wrestle with the same problem it created for the Conservatives: namely, how to counteract a challenge from the right.
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it → wrestle → right
Findlay will seek to capitalise, leaning on his party’s greatest current asset – Badenoch.
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Findlay → seek → asset
The future of North Sea oil and gas was the defining issue, but the campaign also showcased Badenoch’s ability to articulate her message.
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campaign → define → message
She made numerous trips to the North-East and Scottish voters got to see the straight-talking style that is striking a chord across the UK.
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that → make → UK
She outpolls her party, which has yet to cast off the shadow of its last spell in government, because people like her authenticity and directness.
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people → outpoll → authenticity
Findlay has formed a strong working relationship with Mrs Badenoch and the pair speak regularly, writes Barry Graham
She’s unquestionably the star attraction this week, and Tory strategists will hope that increased exposure leads to a continuation of the modest uptick in their polling.
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exposure → form → polling
Findlay has a strong working relationship with Badenoch, and the pair speak regularly.
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pair → have → Badenoch
They took up their respective posts within weeks of each other following that 2024 general election thrashing, embarking on similarly daunting rebuilds in tandem.
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They → take → tandem
But the Scottish party can’t simply rely on her appeal.
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party → rely → appeal
They must frame themselves as the sensible, centre-right antidote to a spendthrift SNP government.
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They → frame → government
All bar one of the Scottish Conservatives’ MSPs served in the last parliament.
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All → serve → parliament
That experience matters, especially when all are required to shadow SNP ministers.
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all → matter → ministers
If they are to punch above their weight, there’s no room for passengers.
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they → punch → passengers
Swinney’s government looks unassailable – and numerically it is, especially with the help of the pliant Greens.
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it → look → Greens
But May’s triumph masked a number of issues.
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triumph → mask → issues
As with Labour at the 2024 general election, the SNP’s big win was less a ringing endorsement of them than a repudiation of their opponents.
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win → ring → opponents
The Nationalists’ share of the vote was sharply down on 2021, but the emergence of Reform – to further splinter the pro-Union vote – ensured they lost barely a handful of seats.
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they → splinter → seats
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
