- Published
There are four weeks to go until the US midterm elections, when voters take part in a ballot that could have a major impact on the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.
uncertain
that → publish → presidency
On 3 November, Americans will choose members of Congress, which is made up of two parts - the House of Representatives and the Senate.
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which → choose → Representatives
Elections take place every two years, and when they happen in the middle of the president's four-year term of office, they are called the midterms.
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they → take → office
A key task of Congress is to create and pass federal laws - laws that apply nationwide.
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that → create → laws
The outcome of the midterms will decide which political party - Trump's Republicans or opposition Democrats - controls Congress and how easy it is for the president to carry out his plans.
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president → decide → plans
The results are also seen as a measure of how happy people in the US are with the president's performance so far.
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people → see → performance
Who is being elected?
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Who → elect → ?
All 435 members of the House - the lower chamber of Congress - will be elected.
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members → elect → Congress
They serve fixed terms of two years.
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They → serve → years
The House is where proposed laws are introduced and debated.
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laws → propose → ?
Senators serve six-year terms.
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Senators → serve → terms
Among other jobs, they approve or block proposed laws that have been received from the House.
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that → approve → House
On the same day, voters across much of the US will also choose state-level politicians.
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voters → choose → politicians
Governor contests in California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan will be among the most closely watched.
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contests → watch → watched
The US economy is on the minds of many voters struggling with the price of fuel, groceries, housing and healthcare.
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economy → struggle → fuel
Inflation remains above the level targeted by the US Federal Reserve, partly down to the war that the US and Israel started with Iran in February.
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US → remain → February
Democrats argue Trump's programme of trade tariffs have also pushed up prices for Americans.
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programme → argue → Americans
Republicans say Trump has delivered on a major campaign pledge in 2024 by tightening the border and launching a widespread - and often controversial - crackdown on illegal immigration.
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Trump → say → immigration
Concerns over AI have grown in urgency in recent weeks.
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Concerns → grow → weeks
Senior politicians from both parties have agreed on the need to regulate it - setting themselves in opposition to Trump, who has rejected the idea of laws to control development of the technology.
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who → agree → technology
Control of it matters for the shaping of legislation.
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Control → matter → legislation
Both the House and Senate are currently held by the Republican Party.
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House → hold → Party
They have 218 seats in the House, which is the minimum number needed to control it, plus one independent who votes with them.
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who → have → them
In the Senate, they have 53 seats and the minimum needed for control is 51.
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minimum → have → control
If opposition Democrats win back control of at least one chamber, they will gain power to bring their own laws to the floor.
Who might win?
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Who → win → floor
Voters have tended to "punish" the party of the president in the past and vote against them.
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Voters → tend → them
Recent polling shows a low approval rating for the president.
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polling → show → president
He began his second term as president with an approval rating of just over 50%, according to polling resource website Silver Bulletin, but in early October it was sitting at about 37%.
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it → begin → %
Meanwhile 61% disapproved of him.
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% → disapprove → him
The BBC's US partner CBS News has identified nine Senate races to watch, external, in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and 42 House races, in states like Arizona and Ohio.
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partner → identify → Arizona
The vote is more unpredictable this year because of a battle between the two parties over the way voting districts in the House of Representatives are drawn.
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districts → draw → Representatives
Republicans tried to gain an advantage by creating more favourable electoral maps in certain states and Democrats followed suit.
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Democrats → try → suit
What does it mean for Trump?
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it → mean → Trump
If the Democrats win either the House or the Senate then Trump will find it difficult to get any laws through Congress.
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it → win → Congress
So his domestic plans could be frustrated, although he has found ways to exercise power without his wider party.
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he → frustrate → party
Democratic control of either chamber would also mean they could use committees to investigate aspects of the Trump presidency.
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they → mean → presidency
There is also a debate within the Democratic Party about whether to impeach Trump, which means to bring charges in Congress that will form the basis for a political, not criminal, trial.
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that → be → trial
If the Republican Party stays in control of Congress, Trump will be able to keep going with his plans for the remainder of his time in office.
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Trump → stay → office
What does it mean for the 2028 election?
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it → mean → election
The president's name is not on the ballot during the midterm elections, though Trump has urged Republicans to pretend that it is by voting for him as an endorsement of his actions so far.
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it → urge → actions
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
