For once, Democrats and Donald Trump might be in agreement: “Pretend I’m on the ticket,” the historically unpopular president has instructed supporters.
uncertain
president → pretend → supporters
Midterms are in large part a referendum on the incumbent, and Trump’s war on Iran and its impact on the cost of living have boosted support for Democrats.
asserted
war → boost → Democrats
With less than a month to go, they have reason to be upbeat.
asserted
they → go → reason
The party has a mountain to climb after the devastating defeats of 2024, and the gerrymandering of Republicans, but surveys give it a lead of about nine points on the generic ballot, which measures preference for parties rather than specific candidates.
asserted
which → have → candidates
Attention has turned from the prospects of seizing the House, where Democrats are forecast a clear majority, to what once seemed like the highly optimistic possibility of taking the Senate too.
asserted
what → turn → Senate
That would require flipping four seats, with 35 in play.
asserted
That → require → play
Remarkably, Democrats are prospering in red states from Texas to Alaska.
asserted
Democrats → prosper → Alaska
In Kansas – which Mr Trump carried by 16 points, and which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932 – the race is neck and neck.
asserted
race → carry → 1932
The first and most glaring is that the Democrats remain unpopular.
asserted
Democrats → remain → ?
Voters are being turned off the Republicans rather than drawn towards their rivals; pundits talk of a red undertow rather than a blue wave.
asserted
pundits → turn → undertow
Democrats’ striking progress in key races where few had favoured them is tied to standout candidates and especially unpopular opponents – notably in Texas, where the Christian pastor and economic populist James Talarico is leading Ken Paxton, viewed unfavourably by a third of his own party’s supporters.
asserted
pastor → strike → supporters
Yet Democrats are struggling in some places where they initially had good reason for optimism, such as Maine.
asserted
they → struggle → Maine
Third, the huge Republican spending advantage is now materialising – with $700m of advertising booked since the start of September.
asserted
advantage → materialise → September
Mr Trump, who has fared better than his party in elections, is hitting the campaign trail.
asserted
who → fare → trail
He may make sure his base turns out.
uncertain
base → make → ?
But candidates – including those who benefited from his endorsement – are increasingly distancing themselves from the president because he alienates others.
asserted
he → include → others
He is visibly more energised by his construction projects than how his voters can pay their bills.
asserted
voters → pay → bills
His war on Iran looks not only reckless and ineffectual, but is pushing up prices.
asserted
war → look → prices
Strikingly, voters are now more likely to identify Republicans than Democrats as “elitist”.
asserted
voters → identify → Democrats
Latino voters who swung to him are changing their minds, with Immigration and Customs Enforcement excesses contributing.
asserted
excesses → swing → minds
Outrageously, Mr Trump has used taxpayer-funded adverts to laud his presidency.
asserted
Trump → use → presidency
It goes without saying that he cannot be expected to respect the midterm results.
asserted
he → go → results
The supreme court rejected his efforts to restrict mail-in voting – used by almost a third of the electorate – but he continues to smear it.
asserted
he → reject → it
Just as he disrupts the electoral process, in office he rejects the norms and restraints that his predecessors recognised, and relies more and more on executive orders – seeking to avoid checks on issues ranging from war to vaccines.
asserted
predecessors → disrupt → vaccines
But should Democrats manage to take both House and Senate, they would regain both legislative control and investigative powers.
asserted
they → manage → control
In these elections, most votes will be driven by economic stress rather than democratic peril.
asserted
votes → drive → stress
But their outcome will be critical to the defence of American democracy – or its continued erosion.
asserted
outcome → continue → democracy
The Aporia
