The 2026 Nobel literature prize could go to a Chinese or a Caribbean woman when it is awarded later this week, literary critics say, in a bid to diversify an award that has most often gone to Western male authors.
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that → go → authors
There is no public shortlist for the Nobel, and with the deliberations of the Swedish Academy that awards the prize and the list of nominees remaining sealed for 50 years, Stockholm’s literary circles engage in frantic guessing ahead of the announcement.
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circles → be → announcement
The suspense will end on Oct 8 at 1pm (1100 GMT or 7pm SGT) when the 18-member Swedish Academy reveals its pick.
Antiguan-American author Jamaica Kincaid, 77, whose work explores Caribbean culture, family and identity as well as colonialism and race, has often been mentioned in Nobel speculation, as has China’s Can Xue, whose avant-garde experimental writing has been compared to that of Kafka.
“It’s about time for Jamaica Kincaid to get it,” Victor Malm, culture critic at Swedish daily Expressen, told AFP.
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Malm → end → AFP
“She has been mentioned for a long time,” said Bjorn Wiman, culture editor at Sweden’s largest daily Dagens Nyheter.
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Wiman → mention → Nyheter
Hungary’s Laszlo Krasznahorkai took home the honour in 2025.
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Krasznahorkai → take → 2025
Women under-represented
Kincaid’s 1990 novel Lucy is an autobiographical tale of an embittered young girl who travels from the West Indies to the United States to work as an au pair.
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who → represent → pair
“It’s exactly the kind of book where it’s enough to read three lines to say: ‘OK, we’re talking about a Nobel laureate here’,” Wiman said.
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Wiman → ’ → laureate
Giving her the nod could also be interpreted as a political choice, given her fierce criticism of US President Donald Trump.
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Giving → give → Trump
The Academy trod familiar ground in 2025 when it honoured Krasznahorkai – a male writer from central Europe, of which there are many in the Nobel annals – and Wiman said the committee should “distance itself a bit” from that.
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committee → tread → that
The institution has long been criticised for the over-representation of Western male authors since the prize was first awarded in 1901.
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prize → criticise → 1901
There are only 18 women among the 122 laureates, and only very few have bodies of work written in Asian or Middle Eastern languages.
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few → be → languages
No African languages are represented.
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languages → represent → ?
A 2018 sex assault scandal left the Academy in tatters, and more than half of its members ended up being replaced.
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half → leave → members
Since then, every other literature laureate has been a woman – making it likely that the nod in 2026 could go to a woman.
The Swedish Academy insists, however, that its only consideration is the quality of a writer’s work.
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consideration → make → work
Lina Kalmteg, literary critic for Swedish public broadcaster SR, meanwhile said it was time for a Spanish-language author from Latin America.
“
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it → say → America
In recent years, there has been a lot of talk about the ‘Latin American literary miracle’, this new generation that came after the male authors devoted to magical realism, like Gabriel Garcia Marquez,” she told AFP.
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she → come → AFP
“In this new wave, it’s women who are taking the lead, with writing often tinged with feminism, but also often quite dark and violent, punctuated by surreal touches,” she noted.
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she → ’ → touches
Argentinian author Samanta Schweblin, 48, would be an interesting and surprising choice in this category, she said.
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she → say → category
“But she is surely still too young,” she added.
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she → add → ?
Literature laureates are honoured for their body of work, not a single publication.
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laureates → honour → work
The last writer from South America to be honoured was Peru’s Mario Vargas Llosa in 2010.
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writer → honour → 2010
Other “usual suspects” mentioned regularly in Nobel speculation include Australia’s Gerald Murnane, his Aboriginal compatriot Alexis Wright, American author Thomas Pynchon and Mexican writer Cristina Rivera Garza.
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suspects → mention → Murnane
Several new names getting Nobel buzz the past few years are Germany’s Jenny Erpenbeck, who won the 2024 International Booker Prize for the novel Kairos, and Duong Thu Huong, one of Vietnam’s most popular writers whose first books in the late 1980s were bestsellers before they were banned, and whose books are mainly published outside Vietnam.
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books → get → Vietnam
The winner will take home a US$1.2 million (S$1.5 million) cheque, gold medal and diploma.
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winner → take → cheque
The Aporia
