While it has yet to finalize a $14 billion arms deal with Taiwan, the Trump administration is delivering a needed boost to deterrence against China.
asserted
administration → have → China
It is doing so with an anti-ship missile deployment to Japan’s westernmost island, Yonaguni.
asserted
It → do → island
Japanese media report that NMESIS will arrive on Yonaguni for the Oct. 19-29 U.S.-Japan “Keen Sword” military exercise.
asserted
NMESIS → report → exercise
NMESIS is the U.S. Marine Corps system that uses the Naval Strike Missile.
asserted
that → use → Missile
Developed by Norway’s Kongsberg company, the Naval Strike Missile is a highly capable anti-ship missile designed to penetrate advanced air defenses and destroy key targets on enemy warships, such as sensors and control centers.
asserted
Missile → develop → sensors
These weapons have a range of at least 100 nautical miles, with upgrades set to extend that range to more than 150 nautical miles.
asserted
upgrades → have → miles
Geography tells us why.
asserted
Geography → tell → us
My annotated map below (using mapdevelopers.com) shows a circle with a radius of 100 nautical miles.
asserted
map → annotate → miles
Based on Yonaguni, NMESIS’s range covers waters off the Taiwanese capital of Taipei and throughout northeastern Taiwan.
asserted
range → base → Taiwan
It thus offers extraordinary utility in any future war over Taiwan.
asserted
It → offer → Taiwan
Forces deployed under the Marines’ adapted organizational structure could use NMESIS to deny early sea control to the Chinese navy.
uncertain
Forces → deploy → navy
That would be crucial as the PLAN attempted to encircle Taiwan and deny allied relief to the island.
asserted
PLAN → attempt → island
This deployment thus gives us a rare public insight into Pacific Command Adm. Sam Paparo’s vision of turning Taiwan’s periphery into a “hellscape” for the Chinese military in any war.
asserted
deployment → give → war
Putting NMESIS on the Japanese territory closest to China also sends an overdue signal of support to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
asserted
Putting → put → Takaichi
A deeply pro-American leader, Takaichi has significantly boosted defense spending and has suggested that Japan would intervene were China to attack Taiwan.
uncertain
China → boost → Taiwan
This has earned her Beijing’s incandescent fury — a Chinese diplomat threatened to behead the prime minister last year, for example.
asserted
diplomat → earn → example
Beijing’s Global Times underlines the Chinese concerns.
asserted
Times → underline → concerns
A retired PLA officer told the newspaper that NMESIS’s deployment would “increase the risk of miscalculation by reinforcing perceptions that Japan and the U.S. could intervene militarily in the Taiwan question.
uncertain
Japan → tell → question
Any forces stationed on Yonaguni that take part in such an intervention could risk becoming an early target in a conflict…
uncertain
that → station → conflict
the deployment on Yonaguni Island sends a clear signal of potential interference in the Taiwan question.”
asserted
deployment → send → question
The officer added, however, that Yonaguni’s relatively small size would make it relatively easy for Chinese forces to target NMESIS units.
asserted
forces → add → units
While the island is small, NMESIS is mounted on unmanned Joint Light Tactical Vehicles designed for rough terrain.
asserted
NMESIS → mount → terrain
And while China would throw a wide variety of missiles and drones at Yonaguni, the island’s southern half is defined by heavily forested hills.
asserted
half → throw → hills
NMESIS units could fire in open areas and then quickly relocate into concealed positions in the forest to avoid retaliatory fire.
uncertain
units → fire → fire
U.S. and Japanese combat aircraft would also almost certainly be fighting to provide air cover.
asserted
aircraft → fight → cover
But it does advance allied means of defending Taiwan.
asserted
it → advance → Taiwan
Equally valuable, it introduces one more element of friction into President Xi Jinping’s calculations as he, and he alone, decides whether to risk military action to conquer Taiwan.
asserted
he → introduce → Taiwan
Xi knows that while victory in such an effort would cement his legacy and the Communist Party’s sense of destiny for global dominance, defeat would risk catastrophic political consequences for both him and the party.
asserted
defeat → know → him
There’s another benefit to these exercises: Australian, British, Canadian, and French forces will also take part.
asserted
forces → ’ → part
And while it is sending only medical and logistics personnel to mitigate Beijing’s predictable fury, Germany is also participating.
asserted
Germany → send → fury
These nations deserve U.S. and Japanese gratitude.
asserted
nations → deserve → gratitude
They know that China will react furiously, potentially with economic retaliation, to their perceived support for the U.S. over Taiwan, which China calls its “first red line” in foreign relations.
asserted
China → know → relations
That these nations are nevertheless willing to support U.S. and Pacific security interests testifies to the value of American alliances.
asserted
are → support → alliances
The key with NMESIS is not to provoke war but to bolster Xi and the PLA’s understanding that launching that war carries great and unpredictable risks.
asserted
launching → provoke → risks
And reminding Beijing that America remains committed to its treaty defense ally, Japan.
asserted
America → remind → ally
The Marine Corps this month signed a $404 million deal with Kongsberg to produce and sustain NSMs through 2034.
asserted
Corps → sign → 2034
This kind of innovative procurement,
to manage China’s growing threat.
asserted
kind → manage → threat
The Aporia
