Nobel Peace Prize haunted by the ‘spectre’ of Trump
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US President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are seen as minimal, but his “spectre” will cast its shadow over the announcement of the winner in Oslo on Oct 9, experts say.
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experts → win → Oct
The Norwegian Nobel Committee knows it will be under close scrutiny: since his return to the White House in January 2025, the billionaire Republican has campaigned intensively for the prize and has not hidden his disappointment at not winning it yet.
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The chances of him getting the nod are, however, undermined by his war against Iran, his territorial ambitions – sometimes at the expense of allies, as in Greenland – and his attacks on international cooperation institutions and the media.
Even though he has not been lobbying as openly for the Nobel in recent weeks, Trump remains on everyone’s minds, with strong chances that the committee’s pick will, regardless of who they choose, be interpreted as direct or indirect criticism of the US President.
Trump is “the spectre in the room”, said the head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO), Haakon Gjerlow.
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head → get → Oslo
Given the reactions that could emerge from the White House, Gjerlow said the Nobel committee must be asking itself: “Is there any potential for this prize to create harm rather than good in awarding it?”
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prize → give → it
The Nobel Institute says it is unfazed.
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it → say → ?
The secretary of the committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told AFP news agency: “There’s always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee.
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secretary → tell → committee
So, in one sense, we’re very used to that.
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we → ’re → that
“It’s not something we don’t discuss.
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Of course we have to discuss it, but it’s not like that influences the discussions in the room and decisions that come out.”
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that → have → room
In 2025, the prestigious prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a choice generally considered palatable to Trump.
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prize → go → Trump
Machado even gave him her Nobel gold medal, judging he deserved it after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro – though she failed to obtain his political backing in exchange.
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she → give → exchange
Those events could prompt the committee to choose in 2026 a laureate who enjoys broad consensus, such as an individual or organisation working to protect children or humanitarian efforts.
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who → prompt → children
That could include the Save the Children charity and Mykola Kuleba, a Ukrainian children’s rights activist campaigning for the return of children illegally taken to Russia from occupied territories – a cause close to the heart of Trump’s wife Melania.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a vast network of volunteers risking their lives to help people facing the double threat of war and hunger, could also be a potential laureate.
But the committee may also choose a laureate that could rub Trump the wrong way.
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that → include → Trump
That could include the UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese, Pope Leo XIV, the Committee to Protect Journalists, or international justice bodies such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice.
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That → include → Justice
“We live in an age of predators.
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We have Trump, Putin, Netanyahu,” said Nobel historian Asle Sveen.
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“They don’t want to have an international order.
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They want to have big powers with spheres of influence.
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And this court stands in the way,” he said, referring to the ICC.
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he → stand → ICC
A total of 287 individuals and organisations have been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, though the names on the list are kept secret for 50 years.
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names → nominate → years
But peace remains elusive in many parts of the world: 65 armed conflicts involving at least one state actor were registered in 2025, the highest number since 1946, according to PRIO.
“At an overall level, it is clear that the world is not developing in the right direction,” said Harpviken.
“At the same time... there is no lack of good initiatives.
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Harpviken → remain → initiatives
There is no lack of organisations or individuals who do good work,” he said.
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he → be → work
“A peace prize may make more sense than ever.”
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prize → make → sense
The Aporia
