Kerrisdale looks much the same as ever.
asserted
Kerrisdale → look → ?
In this affluent pocket of Vancouver’s west side, gable-roofed houses stand behind tall hedges and shelter under mature maples.
asserted
houses → stand → maples
Yet a subtle change has occurred: In many corners of the neighbourhood, there are fewer people.
asserted
change → occur → neighbourhood
On the side streets of Kerrisdale, many blocks have lost between 10 and 30 per cent of their population since the 1970s.
asserted
blocks → lose → 1970s
One section near the Marine Drive Golf Club fell from 1,010 residents to 630 – down 380 people, or 38 per cent.
asserted
section → fall → 630
Over the past half-century, both the Vancouver and Toronto regions have doubled in population.
asserted
regions → double → population
But a Globe and Mail analysis of census data shows that within these growing metropolises, there are shrinking cities: established areas where populations have fallen as much as 40 per cent.
asserted
populations → show → metropolises
This trend of local population declines has been largely overlooked, even as Canadian governments work to create more homes and build the infrastructure – pipes, roads, community facilities – to serve the people who will occupy them.
asserted
who → overlook → them
In last year’s federal budget, the government promised $50-billion toward such projects.
asserted
government → promise → projects
In March, Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged $4.4-billion to “housing-related infrastructure” in Ontario, and in June, the government pledged $1.6-billion over 10 years for such projects in British Columbia.
asserted
government → pledge → Columbia
But experts suggest some of this spending could be put to better use, or avoided entirely.
uncertain
some → suggest → use
That is because governments rarely ask a fundamental question: Where do we have unused capacity?
asserted
we → ask → capacity
Many urban neighbourhoods have water systems, roads, parks and schools that were built for larger populations than today’s.
asserted
that → have → today
As new houses have been built across the Lower Mainland and the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, as apartment towers have swelled the populations of formerly desolate industrial districts, each city has maintained an archipelago of neighbourhoods where neighbours have become increasingly scarce.
asserted
neighbours → build → neighbourhoods
The Globe compared figures from the 1971 and 2021 censuses for both Toronto and Vancouver, examining the population of “dissemination areas” – each one an area of a few blocks, typically home to about 500 people.
asserted
one → compare → people
In the Vancouver region, 21 per cent of those areas declined in population over those 50 years, losing 76,424 people in total.
asserted
cent → decline → total
Many other areas failed to keep up with the quick growth of the region.
asserted
areas → fail → region
In the Toronto region, the pattern is much more stark: Almost three-quarters of those established areas had declined by 2021, shedding a total of 540,789 people.
asserted
quarters → establish → people
This pattern is hard to discern on the streetscape; these prosperous cities generally do not have crumbling, empty buildings or vacant lots.
asserted
cities → discern → buildings
But the declines are subtly reflected in empty public-school classrooms, a lack of foot traffic and the closing of neighbourhood retailers.
asserted
declines → reflect → retailers
The history of growth and shrinkage is shaped by a combination of demographic changes and specific urban planning policies.
asserted
history → shape → changes
But nothing is set in stone: Experts say these places could yet absorb more residents, often at a lower cost than building entirely new communities.
uncertain
places → set → communities
Several demographic trends contribute to the pattern of the shrinking city.
asserted
trends → contribute → city
Canadians today are living longer, having fewer children and occupying more square footage than previous generations.
asserted
Canadians → live → generations
A general contractor, he was raised on the west side of Vancouver.
asserted
he → raise → Vancouver
He and his wife raised their two sons in a 3,400-square-foot house in Kerrisdale; they remain there as empty nesters, though their son’s dog Hershy is often around the house.
asserted
dog → raise → house
“We live in the same space as when we had two boys who walked to school,” said Mr. Haebler, 65.
asserted
Haebler → live → school
Their pandemic project was to convert their coach house into a music studio.
asserted
project → convert → studio
“And now we have a spare bedroom, and I’ve moved my study from the basement into one of the other bedrooms.”
asserted
I → have → bedrooms
Prof. Maxwell Hartt, a geographer at Queen’s University who studies population decline, says that this story is quite typical.
asserted
story → study → decline
In the shrinking zones of Toronto and Vancouver, “there aren’t a lot of vacant homes,” he said.
asserted
he → shrink → homes
Canadians are having fewer children.
asserted
Canadians → have → children
Young parents often choose to move from cities to suburbs.
asserted
parents → choose → suburbs
And seniors – whose lifespan has increased from an average of about 75 to 82 in the past four decades – are largely remaining in place, by choice or by necessity.
asserted
lifespan → increase → necessity
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted thousands of people to migrate out of large cities, particularly Toronto and its adjacent communities.
asserted
pandemic → prompt → cities
However, that pattern was outweighed until 2025 by high levels of international migration; both the Toronto and Vancouver metro areas have continued to grow in each year of the past decade except for last year.
asserted
areas → outweigh → year
“There are, I’m sure, many retired people who would be happy to move down,” Dr. Hartt said, “but there isn’t a condo or an apartment nearby to move into in their community.”
asserted
Hartt → be → community
Mr. Haebler was surprised to learn that most blocks in his neighbourhood have lost people.
asserted
blocks → learn → people
Some of his neighbours have divided up their lots to make room for new apartments, often for their children.
asserted
Some → divide → children
“Everybody’s got a laneway suite now, and everybody’s got a basement suite,” he remarked.
asserted
he → get → suite
…and 142 more, not listed.
The Aporia
