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The Alberta referendum by the numbers

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Cite

Sun, Y., Cardoso, T., & Wang, C. (2026, October 21). The Alberta referendum by the numbers. The Globe and Mail. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-the-alberta-referendum-by-the-numbers/

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The Globe and Mail · collected 2026-10-21 · by Yang Sun, Tom Cardoso, Chen Wang

Quick Summary

Alberta recently held a referendum on whether to pursue secession from Canada and address other provincial issues. Out of approximately 3.1 million eligible voters, around 62% cast ballots specifically on the separation question. Roughly 43% of these votes were advance or mail-in ballots, significantly higher than in previous elections. Preliminary results show that only two electoral divisions supported a separation referendum: Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre and Central Peace-Notley, both with 51% support. The analysis also indicates that United Conservative Party (UCP) areas generally showed stronger support for separation compared to New Democratic Party (NDP) regions.
Written by AI on 2026-10-21, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

On October 19, 2026, Albertans voted in a referendum that included ten questions, primarily focusing on immigration and constitutional issues. The last question asked if the Government of Alberta should commence legal steps to hold a second binding referendum on separation from Canada. Voting began with advance polls on October 13 at 311 polling stations.

The results released later showed that three-quarters of Albertans voted against pursuing separation, with strong support for remaining in Canada. However, there was a noticeable rural-urban divide, where questions pertaining to immigration and constitutional changes garnered more support from rural areas compared to urban centers like Calgary and Edmonton.

Premier Danielle Smith's request for "strong mandates" on the nine ballot questions did not materialize as expected, with most provincial ridings rejecting many of the proposed measures. This has left her government hesitant about swift action despite winning majorities in some areas related to immigration policies.

Written for “Alberta Referendum Results” on 2026-10-30, grounded in this article and the 104 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Alberta Referendum Results
Politics · 105 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
38
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
3 of 38 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
52/100
The Globe and Mail's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
105
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-21 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Globe and Mail · 1012 article(s) · 35 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 35 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Yang Sun
2 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Five months after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced her government would call a vote on whether the province should pursue secession from Canada, Albertans at last know the results of its historic referendum.
2026-10-21 · assertive framing · The Alberta referendum by the numbers
🔮 This trend of local population declines has been largely overlooked, even as Canadian governments work to create more homes and build the infrastructure – pipes, roads, community facilities – to serve the people who will occupy them.
Also by Yang Sun
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
Tom Cardoso
3 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Ms. Smith, speaking in the legislature during its first sitting since May, said last year’s review conducted by Raymond Wyant, a retired judge from Manitoba, adequately probed the allegations, which were lodged by Alberta Health Services’ former chief executive in February, 2025.
🔮 “Our office is responsible for the provision of advisory support and the prosecution of any charges that may arise from the ongoing Royal Canadian Mounted Police criminal investigation into fraud, breach of trust, and money laundering arising out of procurement processes and practices at Alberta Health and Alberta Health Services,” Mr. Andreopoulos says in his letter.
🔮 Five months after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced her government would call a vote on whether the province should pursue secession from Canada, Albertans at last know the results of its historic referendum.
2026-10-21 · assertive framing · The Alberta referendum by the numbers
Also by Tom Cardoso
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
Chen Wang
2 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 The results also underline a stark divide between rural and urban voters on her proposals, which could pose political risks for the Premier as she campaigns toward next year’s provincial election.
🔮 Five months after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced her government would call a vote on whether the province should pursue secession from Canada, Albertans at last know the results of its historic referendum.
2026-10-21 · assertive framing · The Alberta referendum by the numbers
Also by Chen Wang
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

Alberta Albertans Canada Elections Alberta the United Conservative Party

Subjects

Alberta GPE · 5× Calgary GPE · 3× Canada GPE · 3× Edmonton GPE · 3× Elections Alberta ORG · 3× NDP ORG · 3× Globe ORG · 2× UCP ORG · 2× the United Conservative Party ORG · 2× Danielle Smith PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Preliminary results show that only two of Alberta’s 87 electoral divisions voted in favour of a separation referendum – and, in both cases, it was a slim majority. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, represented by United Conservative Party Finance Minister Jason Nixon, saw the strongest support for a separation question, with 51 per cent voting in favour of a referendum.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-21
🔮 Five months after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced her government would call a vote on whether the province should pursue secession from Canada, Albertans at last know the results of its historic referendum.
2026-10-21 · The Globe and Mail
The Alberta referendum by the numbers · assertive framing

Claims (38 extracted, 3 hedged)

Five months after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced her government would call a vote on whether the province should pursue secession from Canada, Albertans at last know the results of its historic referendum. asserted
Albertans → announce → referendum
The separation question, as well as nine other ballot questions on issues such as immigration, social services and judicial appointments, led to intense rhetoric and fierce campaigning. asserted
question → lead → rhetoric
In the end, roughly a quarter of ballots cast supported a new, separate vote that could begin the legal process allowing the Prairie province to secede from Canadian federation. uncertain
province → cast → federation
While final results are still pending – Elections Alberta has said a full count is expected to take several days – preliminary tallies already reveal how voters have responded to the questions posed by the government. asserted
voters → pende → government
Here’s a look at Alberta’s referendum by the numbers. asserted
look → ’ → numbers
Turnout on separation Preliminary results show that roughly 62 per cent of the province’s 3.1 million eligible voters cast a ballot on Question 10, which asked whether the province should hold a separate vote that could commence the legal process to separate. uncertain
that → show → process
Turnout on that question was similar to the 2023 general election, when around 60 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot. asserted
cent → cast → ballot
Many voters chose to vote in advance or through a mail-in ballot. asserted
voters → choose → ballot
Roughly 43 per cent of eligible voters – 1.4-million people – cast a ballot this way during the referendum, according to Elections Alberta. uncertain
cent → cast → Alberta
This is far in excess of the 28 per cent of eligible voters who did so in 2023. asserted
who → do → 2023
But an analysis also found that this turnout wasn’t uniform across the province. asserted
turnout → find → province
While Elections Alberta has not yet published a breakdown of eligible voters in 2026 for each of the province’s 87 electoral divisions, it has done so for 2025. asserted
it → publish → 2025
The Globe tallied up votes on the separation question for each district and compared that to the 2025 eligible-voter figures. asserted
Globe → tally → figures
That analysis shows that turnout in divisions won by the United Conservative Party in 2023 was five percentage points higher than in areas that went to the New Democrats. asserted
that → show → Democrats
Preliminary results show that only two of Alberta’s 87 electoral divisions voted in favour of a separation referendum – and, in both cases, it was a slim majority. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, represented by United Conservative Party Finance Minister Jason Nixon, saw the strongest support for a separation question, with 51 per cent voting in favour of a referendum. asserted
cent → show → referendum
The only other division to vote in favour of a separation question was Central Peace-Notley, represented by Forestry and Parks Minister Todd Loewen, also with 51-per-cent support. asserted
division → vote → support
In fact, the next 42 divisions with the most support for a separation referendum were all won by the United Conservative Party in 2023, the data show. asserted
data → win → 2023
On average, areas won by the UCP in 2023 voted for separation 33 per cent of the time, while divisions won by the Alberta New Democratic Party voted for separation roughly 15 per cent of the time. asserted
divisions → win → time
The NDP district with the strongest support for separation was Banff-Kananaskis, a district located in the Rocky Mountains in southwest Alberta, at 20 per cent. asserted
district → locate → cent
The NDP division most staunchly in support of remaining in Canada was Edmonton-Strathcona, where 10 per cent of valid votes supported a separation referendum. asserted
cent → remain → referendum
At a glance, a map of the votes for and against separation falls along familiar Albertan lines: The big-city NDP strongholds of Calgary and Edmonton were strongly in favour of remaining in Canada, while rural areas, which have traditionally gone to the UCP, were more likely to vote to separate. asserted
which → fall → UCP
The Globe analyzed Alberta’s 87 electoral divisions and divided them into four buckets: districts representing Edmonton, those representing Calgary, those representing other major cities and those representing the rest of the province, much of which is rural. asserted
much → analyze → which
Edmonton and Calgary saw the strongest support for federalism, at roughly 86 and 83 per cent, respectively. asserted
Edmonton → see → cent
Other cities hewed more closely to the provincial average, with 73 per cent of districts voting to remain. asserted
cent → hew → districts
Those districts, which represent lesser-populated areas like Camrose, Peace River and Lacombe, saw 60 per cent support for remaining in Canada – a 26-point difference compared to Edmonton. asserted
which → represent → Edmonton
How Indigenous communities voted Indigenous leaders in Alberta have been vocal opponents of Alberta’s separation movement, arguing that a break from Canada would infringe on their negotiated treaty rights. asserted
break → vote → rights
While Elections Alberta’s data does not identify which votes came from Indigenous people, an analysis of polling stations located within Indigenous communities shows that voters in those areas overwhelmingly want Alberta to continue being a part of the Canadian federation. asserted
Alberta → identify → federation
The Globe identified 50 voting locations that sit primarily on First Nations land or Métis settlements and were reporting votes as of publication time. asserted
that → identify → time
Of the 13,602 ballots cast at those locations, 95 per cent were in favour of Alberta remaining in Canada. asserted
Alberta → cast → Canada
At a polling station located on the Tsuut’ina Nation southwest of Calgary, 98 per cent of 342 ballots cast were in favour of Alberta remaining a part of Canada. asserted
Alberta → locate → Canada
A polling location on Siksika Nation land that received 512 ballots was 99 per cent in favour of staying in Canada, and a voting location in the Tallcree First Nation, which had counted 102 votes as of publication time, did not see a single ballot cast in favour of separation. asserted
ballot → receive → separation
The nine other questions Votes are still being counted on the nine other questions put to people in Alberta. asserted
Votes → count → Alberta
Elections Alberta said it was giving priority to tallying votes on Question 10, which concerns separation. asserted
which → say → separation
Preliminary results for most of the other nine other measures – including questions about Senate and judicial appointments, immigration and self-determination – are still close. asserted
results → include → appointments
Question 5, which asks whether the government should implement stricter voter ID requirements, has the strongest support so far at 64 per cent. asserted
government → ask → cent
Seven other questions have support between 49 and 58 per cent. asserted
questions → have → support
As of publication time, only Question 8 – which asks whether voters support amending the Canadian Constitution to “allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education, and social services” – has a majority “no” vote, at 51 per cent. asserted
that → ask → cent
Elections Alberta has said it expects its count to take two days. asserted
count → say → days
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