The possible leak of a pathogen from a Russian laboratory in Siberia has caused global alarm.
asserted
leak → cause → alarm
A 28-year-old employee of Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute died of pneumonia on Oct. 2.
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employee → die → Oct.
But while this incident appears contained, the fact that it took place in Russia is concerning in and of itself.
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it → appear → itself
Led by a KGB cabal, the former Russian secret police, Russia embraces pathological deceptiveness on biological threats.
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Russia → lead → threats
The same applies to Russia’s work on chemical, nuclear, and space-based weapons.
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same → apply → weapons
That makes anything plague-related in Russia, accidental or otherwise, a prima facie national security concern for the United States.
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anything → make → States
Russian authorities have plainly engaged in deception in relation to this particular incident.
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authorities → engage → incident
A senior local official first referred to the 28-year-old as having died of the pneumonic plague, only to then aggressively backtrack.
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official → refer → plague
Authorities now insist that tests have shown no link between the pneumonia and the woman’s work at the lab.
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tests → insist → lab
The FSB domestic security service has also been on the ground in Irkutsk, engaging with institute staff and local medical facilities.
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service → engage → staff
At the same time, President Vladimir Putin has ignored U.S. and World Health Organization calls to provide more information about what actually happened.
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what → ignore → information
This is not to say that we should panic.
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we → say → ?
We would not see Irkutsk residents going about their lives normally were authorities concerned about a mass outbreak of either pneumonic plague or some weaponized version of the plague.
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authorities → see → plague
U.S. and allied intelligence services would have picked up indications of mass health concern by now.
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services → pick → concern
Too many panicked Russian officials would be on the phone, calling Moscow and asking for guidance.
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officials → call → guidance
Similarly, because of the hyper-public sensitivity to possible pandemics following COVID-19, whatever the U.S. intelligence community told top U.S. officials would leak to the media in short order.
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told → follow → order
Instead, our attention should fall on how Russia’s silence here relates to the Kremlin’s broader deception on these kinds of concerns.
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silence → fall → concerns
For a start, it is possible the laboratory in question may have been involved in weaponization research related to the Plague.
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laboratory → involve → Plague
This weaponization has been a longstanding focus for Russia, dating back to the early days of the Soviet Union.
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weaponization → date → Union
We also know from past experience that Russia will withhold biological material (bodies, etc.) and data in an effort to hide evidence of a conspiracy.
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Russia → know → conspiracy
True, Russia’s secrecy in this situation may simply be designed to shield the Kremlin from international embarrassment over poor safeguards at the lab.
uncertain
secrecy → design → lab
Still, there are other more nefarious possibilities. Were the 28-year-old to have died as a result of a weaponized or genetically altered strain of the plague, for example, Moscow would fear that any biodata it shared with the WHO would allow that organization to identify a breach of Russian obligations under the Biological Weapons Convention treaty.
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organization → be → treaty
Russia has long engaged in biological warfare research.
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Russia → engage → research
As I noted in 2020, research shows that Russia developed a “super-plague” in the early 1990s, which was resistant to antibiotics.
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which → note → antibiotics
The Soviet Union also developed antibiotic-resistant Anthrax strains.
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Union → develop → strains
To this day, Moscow continues to engage in bioweapons research designed to blend and adapt various strains of the most dangerous organisms on Earth.
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Moscow → continue → Earth
Russia manifestly does not care that these activities breach its treaty obligations.
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activities → care → obligations
It is equally uncontroversial to assert that Russia is in absolute breach of its Chemical Weapons Convention treaty obligations.
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Russia → assert → obligations
We have seen abundant proof of these breaches in recent years with the Novichok nerve agent poisonings of Russian political opposition figure Alexei Navalny and former Russian spy Sergei Skripal.
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We → see → Navalny
Crucially, Russia was unable to hide verified confirmation by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons that Navalny had indeed been poisoned with this highly toxic chemical weapon.
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Navalny → hide → weapon
Navalny was later killed by another bioweapon while incarcerated in an Arctic prison.
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Navalny → kill → prison
Offering absurd proof of the Russian state’s responsibility, the bioweapon used adapted poison from frogs that are indigenous to South American rainforests.
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that → offer → rainforests
Whenever Russia signs an international treaty regarding weapons of mass destruction, it breaks that treaty if it believes that it can do so without suffering due riposte.
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it → sign → riposte
The first Trump administration rightly identified Russia’s breach of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, for example.
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administration → identify → example
Although that treaty explicitly restricts intermediate-range ballistic missiles, Russia nevertheless developed an advanced intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Novator.
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Russia → restrict → missile
All NATO members agreed that the Novator breached the INF treaty.
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Novator → agree → treaty
He declared that there was “no evidence of violations on [Russia’s] part.”
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He → declare → part
While the U.S. then rightly withdrew from the INF treaty, the problem is that Russia’s conduct shreds the credibility of nuclear treaties more generally.
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conduct → withdraw → treaties
Finally, we have Russia’s antics in space.
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we → have → space
In Feb. 2024, then House Intelligence Select Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH) hinted at what the Washington Examiner then first reported was a secret Russian nuclear weapons system.
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Examiner → hint → Feb.
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
