The Coalition announced its immigration policy on Tuesday, promising to reduce net overseas migration to 100,000 people a year, but experts aren’t convinced the numbers add up.
Herald and Age readers on social media have asked dozens of questions about what this announcement means – and why we’re debating immigration in the first place.
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we → announce → place
He dissects the Coalition’s policy and answers our audience questions.
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He → dissect → questions
This issue has captured our readers this week.
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issue → capture → readers
We’ve collected a bunch of questions that people have left on our pages, and I was hoping you could talk us through them.
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you → collect → them
One sentiment that comes through is people feel migrants are being made scapegoats for the country’s problems.
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migrants → come → problems
Are we having this debate because migrants are an easy political target, or are there problems with the migration program?
Rizvi:
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migrants → have → Rizvi
The visa system is struggling.
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system → struggle → ?
It is clogged.
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It → clog → ?
Processing rates are slowing.
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rates → slow → ?
So there’s no question things need to be fixed.
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things → ’ → ?
Having said that, about a week and a half ago, the Australian Bureau of Statistics put out some data that I thought would capture everyone’s attention, but actually ended up being completely ignored.
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I → say → attention
It tracked every single permanent migrant who has come to Australia since 2000.
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who → track → 2000
What it showed was that, on average, a permanent migrant to Australia since 2000 is significantly more qualified in terms of a post-school qualification, far more likely to be employed, far more likely to be earning a higher income, far more likely to have started a business, far less likely to be unemployed, far less likely to be using health services.
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migrant → show → services
The question that you have to ask is: why is immigration being blamed for low productivity if the migrants themselves are performing so well economically?
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migrants → have → productivity
The problems with our productivity rate lie elsewhere.
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problems → lie → rate
We’re blaming the wrong people.
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We → blame → people
So where would you focus the public conversation and the policy conversation when it comes to immigration?
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it → focus → immigration
Rizvi: My focus would be on addressing the problems in the system.
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focus → address → system
The first problem is net overseas migration at 300,000 per annum – it’s about 292,000 at the moment [which is] too high if you want to reduce the number of people stuck in immigration limbo.
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you → ’ → limbo
It is also certainly the case that we can target our program better in terms of the temporary graduates and students who are coming through the system.
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who → target → system
For example, if a student has done something like nursing, or engineering, that’s in long-term demand, that is a person we want to keep.
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we → do → demand
One of the issues with that ballooning number of temporary migrants is there aren’t enough places in the permanent program for them all to move on to, so you end up with a giant backlog that creates unintended consequences all around the system.
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that → balloon → system
The government is copping the heat for this problem.
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government → cop → problem
The fault lies in both major parties, which is convenient for One Nation.
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which → lie → Nation
At the end of COVID, the Coalition government was under enormous pressure from the business community, who were shouting [about] labour shortages from the rooftops.
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who → shout → rooftops
So the Coalition stomped the foot on the immigration accelerator in a way that no government in Australia’s history has ever done before.
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government → stomp → history
They made changes that were just astonishing.
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that → make → changes
Not surprisingly, in a hot labour market, the numbers went up very rapidly, to 538,000 net overseas migration in 2022-23.
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numbers → go → 2022
The initial response from the Labor government was: “Oh, that’s just catch-up, don’t worry about it.”
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that → ’ → it
Another line was: “Oh, that’s just net overseas migration, and we don’t manage net overseas migration, that’s not our job.”
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that → ’ → migration
Eventually, earlier this year, the prime minister said: “We’re going to deliver the [net overseas migration] forecasts in the budget”.
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We → say → budget
That changed everything.
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That → change → everything
The general argument we hear for why Australia does have such high levels of migration is that we need people to work.
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people → hear → migration
Several questions in the comments get to this.
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questions → get → this
Can Australia’s economy function, can the budget survive, will the country thrive with the lower migration rates that the Coalition and One Nation are proposing?
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Coalition → function → that
The big one I would point to over the long term is demography.
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I → point → term
Australians need to understand that if you lower the rate of immigration – net overseas migration – and you lower it so far that it becomes negative, what you do is bring forward the point in our future where deaths exceed births.
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deaths → need → births
The other thing that happens if you have a really low net overseas migration is that the portion of older Australians relative to working age rises.
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portion → happen → age
In other words, we age faster, and the people available to support that older population becomes fewer, and so you have to take on a greater burden in terms of contribution to the economy over the long term.
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you → age → term
Every developed nation on the planet is facing the same situation.
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nation → develop → situation
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
