In September, one of the major conflicts in the Middle East came within sight of Africa, as Iran-backed Houthi rebels captured Yemen's Perim Island.
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rebels → come → Island
The island forms the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the southern entrance of the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
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which → form → Aden
In early October, Yemen's Armed Forces and their Saudi allies launched a counteroffensive.
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Forces → launch → counteroffensive
TheIran-backed Houthis have been firing on merchant ships since the start of the Gaza war in 2023.
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Houthis → back → 2023
The economic consequences for Africa is coupled with a refugee inflow
African economies are already suffering from crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which is making fuel and fertilizer in particular scarce and more expensive.
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fuel → couple → Hormuz
If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also becomes impassable, the situation could deteriorate.
uncertain
situation → become → ?
Shipping companies would have to make detours via the Suez Canal, controlled by Egypt or the southern tip of Africa, as some already do.
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some → have → Africa
The additional costs would be pass on to consumers.
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costs → pass → consumers
The human cost of the escalation in Yemen hit Djibouti almost immediately.
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cost → hit → Djibouti
According to the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), at least 3,700 refugees have crossed from Yemen into Djibouti since September 10.
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refugees → accord → September
Most of those who made it to the Obock region are women, children, and older people.
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who → make → region
UNHCR is preparing to assist another 10,000 people who have not yet crossed into Djibouti.
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who → prepare → Djibouti
"We don't have much water here; there's no groundwater at all," Alessandra Roccasalvo, the UN Development Program (UNDP) representative for Djibouti, told DW.
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Roccasalvo → have → DW
"Everything has to be desalinated."
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Everything → have → ?
Its position at at the entrance to the Red Sea makes it an attractive commercial and military shipping hub.
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it → make → Sea
The United States, China, France, Italy, and Japan operate military bases in Djibouti.
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States → operate → Djibouti
The German Bundeswehr was also present until 2021 as part of a naval mission to combat maritime piracy.
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Bundeswehr → combat → piracy
The country's civilian ports serve as transshipment, or intermediate, hubs for global shipping cargo, goods, and containers.
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ports → serve → cargo
So far, the Houthi advance has not led to empty docks in Djibouti.
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advance → lead → Djibouti
But there are still potential consequences, said Roccasalvo: "Basically, there's an economic upswing here — which means, as in any country experiencing an upswing, building materials are needed: cement, raw materials, and other things."
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materials → be → upswing
Less of that money comes in because ships now have to pay nearly twice as much for insurance and reinsurance.
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ships → come → insurance
"Many ships no longer want to pass through the Suez Canal; many ships no longer want to pass through the Red Sea.
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ships → want → Sea
Knock-on effects for landlocked neighboring Ethiopia
Ethiopia — the world's most populous landlocked country — handles about 95% of its imports and exports through Djibouti's ports.
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Ethiopia → knock → ports
Price hikes resulting from higher war-risk shipping insurance premiums affect the country greatly.
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hikes → result → country
Shortly after the Houthis seized Perim, Ethiopia's economy faced another, even more immediate threat: On September 23, fighting broke out in the country's northern Tigray region.
Since then, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) have reportedly made gains against the Tigray-led rebel coalition that aims to overthrow the national government.
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that → seize → government
The rebels briefly advanced toward the main corridor used for transporting goods between Djibouti's ports and the Ethiopian hinterland.
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rebels → advance → ports
According to observers, the ENDF's advances have since reduced the threat of yet another trade blockade — but as long as the conflict remains unresolved, the situation could potentially deteriorate again.
uncertain
situation → accord → blockade
For months now, Ethiopia has been suffering more than almost any other African country from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and has already had to ration fuel at times.
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Ethiopia → suffer → times
In the long term, the country aims to reduce its dependence on imports, for example by powering vehicles with domestically generated electricity instead of imported gasoline.
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country → aim → gasoline
Can the conflict in Ethiopia affect Bab el-Mandeb access?
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conflict → affect → access
Ethiopia and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, have severed diplomatic ties; other regional powers such as Sudan, Egypt, and Somalia may find themselves siding with Eritrea rather than with Ethiopia.
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themselves → sever → Ethiopia
Eritrea sees itself as facing a threat that Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reiterated on several occasions: With Ethiopia having been deprived of its own access to the sea since Eritrea's independence, Abiy has often alluded to rectifying this perceived injustice — either through a political agreement, as was once sought with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, or by force.
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Abiy → see → force
The port of Assab is located on the edge of Eritrea's panhandle — and is often described as the most likely target should Abiy choose the path of aggression.
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Abiy → locate → aggression
If the fighting within Ethiopia further escalates into a full-blown regional war, this could also lead to additional restrictions on safe passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the surrounding waters.
uncertain
this → escalate → Strait
Experts have also raised concerns about the Shiite Houthis increasingly collaborating with the Sunni terrorist group Al-Shabab, which is based in Somalia.
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which → raise → Somalia
Although their ideologies are fundamentally different, they are united by their hostility toward Israel and the US among other things.
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they → unite → things
What tools are at the disposal of African countries to help remedy the situation?
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tools → help → situation
The three African non-permanent members of the UN Security Council — the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and Somalia — held an emergency meeting in mid-September on this issue, during which they jointly called for free shipping lanes and endorsed the demand that the crisis in Yemen be resolved under the auspices of the UN.
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crisis → hold → UN
The situation at Bab el-Mandeb and in northern Ethiopia is once again demanding flexibility from Africa.
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situation → demand → Africa
In fact, some African economies can also benefit from relocation activities: Ports inKenya and Tanzania, for example, are becoming increasingly attractive for transshipment.
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Ports → benefit → transshipment
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
