Republican politicos, and everyday voters, too, are inundated with predictions of disaster in the upcoming midterm elections.
asserted
politicos → inundate → elections
And indeed, the outlook for the party keeping the House is not good.
asserted
party → keep → House
The outlook for holding the Senate is better — iffy but possible.
asserted
outlook → hold → Senate
The big factors in determining midterm outcome — presidential job approval, generic ballot, history — are plainly discouraging for Republicans.
asserted
factors → determine → Republicans
Now, especially where the Senate is concerned, GOP strategists have to choose some races for particular focus in the final weeks of the campaign.
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strategists → concern → campaign
What standard should they use?
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they → use → standard
Obviously, the first priority is to push hard in races that are close and where the Republican candidate has a good chance to win.
asserted
candidate → push → chance
One under-discussed example of that is Minnesota, where Republican Michelle Tafoya is running a strong campaign against deeply flawed Democratic candidate Peggy Flanagan.
asserted
Tafoya → discuss → Flanagan
A Republican victory there would take away a current Democratic seat and make it much harder for Democrats to win control of the Senate.
asserted
Democrats → take → Senate
Victories to keep Republican seats in two other extremely close states, Iowa and Maine, would make it harder still.
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it → keep → states
But another factor to consider in the GOP’s choice of where to fight is whether a loss in a particular race would be unthinkable — not just embarrassing but nearly beyond imagining.
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loss → consider → imagining
Texas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, is one such race.
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which → elect → 1988
Another candidate for unthinkable would be South Carolina, where it is hard to fathom a Democrat winning with today’s electorate.
asserted
Democrat → fathom → electorate
And a final candidate for unthinkable is Kansas, where the last Democratic senator was elected in 1932.
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senator → elect → 1932
It’s astonishing to contemplate.
asserted
It → ’ → ?
A huge amount of time has been devoted to discussing the Texas situation.
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amount → devote → situation
Some veteran Republicans have a hard time believing that the Democrat can win the race — no way, no how, they say.
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they → have → way
Maybe they’re right.
asserted
they → ’re → ?
On the other hand, maybe that’s a bold claim that is true until it’s not.
uncertain
it → ’ → hand
The last time Texas decided a Senate seat in a midterm election was 2018, when the much-celebrated Democrat Beto O’Rourke challenged incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
asserted
Democrat → decide → Cruz
If you remember that race, you recall big media organizations falling into an absolute swoon for O’Rourke.
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organizations → remember → O’Rourke
It undoubtedly gave him a boost; in the end, Cruz won, but it was pretty close, with 50.89% of the vote for Cruz to O’Rourke’s 48.33%.
asserted
it → give → %
This time, can Paxton pull it out?
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Paxton → pull → it
Can Talarico do a point or two better than O’Rourke?
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Talarico → do → O’Rourke
But from a Republican Party point of view, it is probably worth however many millions of dollars it takes to keep the seat in the GOP column, if in fact that can be done.
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that → take → fact
But this year, it has an asterisk by it because of the shock of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death as he was running for reelection.
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he → have → reelection
You know how it all happened, but Graham’s sister, now-Sen. Darline Graham, is running for the spot.
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sister → know → spot
Maybe they’re wrong.
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they → ’re → ?
Back in 2020, when Lindsey Graham last won reelection, the race appeared to be close in the final weeks.
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race → win → weeks
Looking at the last six polls in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, three had Graham tied with Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison.
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Graham → look → Harrison
Another had Graham leading by a single point, another had Graham up by three points, and one had him up by six.
asserted
him → have → six
In the end, Graham won by 10 points, 54.5% to 44.2%.
asserted
Graham → win → points
Now, the polls show Darline Graham ahead of Democratic candidate Annie Andrews by 2.4 percentage points — within the margin of error.
asserted
Graham → show → error
The last two polls in the RealClearPolitics average of polls have shown Graham ahead by a single point.
asserted
Graham → show → point
Nobody quite knows what to make of them.
asserted
Nobody → know → them
It is tempting to dismiss the polls on the basis of the 2020 record.
asserted
It → dismiss → record
Unlike her brother, Darline Graham has no history of winning statewide elections — Lindsey was elected to the Senate in 2002, 2008, 2014, and 2020.
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Lindsey → have → 2002
So there is reason for Republicans to be a little nervous.
asserted
Republicans → be → ?
Yes, it seems hugely unlikely that any Democrat could win a Senate seat in today’s South Carolina, but in this particular case, there are a few unknowns.
uncertain
Democrat → seem → case
So it was not a surprise that the Senate Leadership Fund, the main GOP Senate funding machine, is sending $5 million to South Carolina; that an allied PAC is sending another $1 million; and that President Donald Trump is heading to the state to campaign for Graham.
asserted
Trump → send → Graham
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
