The Aporia · Blakeman has big lead over Hochul among independent voters

Blakeman has big lead over Hochul among independent voters — but Dem ahead overall: poll

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Roarty, N. M. (2026, October 8). Blakeman has big lead over Hochul among independent voters — but Dem ahead overall: poll. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2026/10/08/us-news/blakeman-has-big-lead-over-hochul-among-independent-voters-but-dem-ahead-overall-poll/

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A new Emerson College/PIX 11 poll shows Republican Bruce Blakeman leading Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul by 21 percentage points among independent voters in New York’s gubernatorial race. However, overall, Hochul leads Blakeman with a 52% to 40% advantage, reflecting the state's strong Democratic lean. The survey, conducted October 3-5, includes responses from 900 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Written by AI on 2026-10-08, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

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Story summary

A new Emerson College/PIX 11 poll shows Republican Bruce Blakeman leading incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul by 21 percentage points among independent voters in New York's gubernatorial race. However, overall, Hochul leads with a 52% to 40% margin, including undecided voters. Independent voters prefer Blakeman over Hochul at 55% to 34%, while Democrats strongly back Hochul by 84% to 8%. The poll also reveals that only 40% of New York voters approve of Hochul's job performance, with 46% disapproving. This contrasts sharply with previous Emerson polls where independent voters favored Democratic candidates more often. Additionally, the poll shows that only 30% of voters approve of Senator Chuck Schumer’s job performance.

Written for “New York Governor Poll Results” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

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Hochul leads Blakeman by 11 points, but losing ground with this key voting bloc in new Marist poll Different event

New York Post

⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 16 claims Outlet record 66/100

“The articles report on different polls conducted by Marist and Emerson College respectively, covering similar but distinct snapshots of the gubernatorial race.”

Kathy Hochul counts on Mamdani to rev reelection turnout despite GOP attacks Different event

Washington Examiner

⚖️ Leans right Hedges 2 of 34 claims Outlet record 70/100

“The articles discuss different aspects of the election campaign without describing the same specific incident.”

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20%

3 of 15 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

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not political

takes no side on a contested political question

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66/100

New York Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.

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Nikki Mascali Roarty

3 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

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Claims (15 extracted, 3 hedged)

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman leads incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul by 21 percentage points among independent voters — even as she holds a healthy double-digit lead in the deeply blue Empire State, a new poll found. asserted

poll → lead → State

Hochul leads Blakeman by 12 percentage points, 52% to 40%, with 8% undecided, according to an Emerson College/PIX 11 survey of 900 likely voters released Thursday. uncertain

% → lead → voters

“Hochul’s lead is driven by strong support among New York Democrats, 84% to 8%, but independents break for the Republican, Blakeman, 55% to 34%, a notable contrast with other Emerson statewide polls this cycle, in which independent voters have generally favored the Democratic candidate,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. asserted

Kimball → drive → Polling

The Emerson College survey tracks other recent independent polls that show Hochul leading Blakeman from a range of 11-19 points. asserted

Hochul → track → points

Republican polls claim the race is much closer. uncertain

race → claim → ?

Emerson found Hochul is not popular — only 40% approve of her job performance, 46% disapprove, and the remainder of voters are undecided. The poll had worse news for Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic minority leader. asserted

poll → find → Schumer

Only 30% approve of Schumer’s job performance, 50% disapprove and 20% are unsure — a startlingly low number in Democratic-dominated New York. asserted

% → approve → York

Schumer’s approval rating was 5 points lower than President Trump’s, who had a 35% approval rating and a 57% disapproval rating, the poll found. asserted

poll → have → rating

Democratic socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been stumping upstate, which many see as a networking bid to run for Schumer’s seat when it’s up for grabs in 2028. asserted

it → stump → 2028

First-year democratic socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani has a higher approval rating than statewide elected officials, with 47% giving him a thumbs up and 41% disapproving, and 13% undecided, the poll found. asserted

poll → have → officials

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News New York surveyed 900 likely voters Oct. 3-5, and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. asserted

Polling → survey → points

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide 6 million to 3.4 million — but there are also 3.4 million who aren’t affiliated with a party, according to the state Board of Elections active enrollment logs. uncertain

who → outnumber → logs

Hochul, 68, is seeking her second full term after the former lieutenant governor ascended to the top post when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned. asserted

Cuomo → seek → post

Blakeman, 71, is now serving as the elected Nassau County executive on Long Island. asserted

Blakeman → serve → Island

The governor serves a four-year term at an annual salary of $250,000. asserted

governor → serve → 250,000

Blakeman has big lead over Hochul among independent voters — but Dem ahead overall: poll

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