The Aporia · Holborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens

In the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary byelection, Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali won with 45% of the vote, securing a 3,364-vote majority. The low turnout of 38.7% and close race for second place by Green Party candidate Zack Polanski, who received nearly 33%, suggests relief rather than disappointment among both parties. For the Greens, despite internal controversy over recent policy decisions regarding Israel, Polanski's strong performance indicates that the party remains competitive in urban areas, even under challenging circumstances.

Written by AI on 2026-10-09, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

Story summary

The Holborn and St Pancras by-election took place on Thursday to replace former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who had resigned from his seat in Parliament. The race is between Labour's Dani Arbid-supported candidate Fadila Halima, also known as Ms Abdi-Wali (the exact name varies across sources), and the Green Party leader Zack Polanski. This election is significant for Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who needs to restore faith in Labour among left-wing voters after its decline during the Gaza war.

The North London constituency has been a Labour stronghold since 1983, held by Frank Dobson for 32 years and Keir Starmer for 11. Polanski is hoping to break this streak and secure his seat in Parliament. However, it's noted that Polls indicate the contest between Labour’s Halima and Green Party leader Polanski is close.

Polanski has faced a difficult week after his party passed a controversial motion at its conference asserting “Zionism is racism,” though he abstained from voting on this resolution. He later stated his commitment to inclusivity, rejecting exclusion based on religious or communal affiliation.

The election also marks a critical moment for Polanski's leadership of the Green Party, which has seen significant growth, gaining over 440 councillors and control of five councils in recent local elections.

Polanski appeals to voters by arguing that a Green voice can push Labour on issues such as rent controls and putting Thames Water into public ownership. He also emphasizes the importance of voting against new drilling in the North Sea, an issue that Labour delayed addressing until after the election results.

Overall, while polls suggest a close race, it remains uncertain whether Polanski can upset the long-standing Labour dominance in this constituency.

Written for “Holborn By-election Campaigns” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 47 other(s) covering the same event.

📰 Holborn By-election Campaigns

Politics · 48 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

This article reads unscored and hedges 25% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Who will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? Same event

Evening Standard

⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 13 claims Outlet record 65/100

Voters go to the polls to replace Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras by-election Same event

Evening Standard

Hedges 1 of 22 claims Outlet record 65/100

Voters go to polls to replace Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras by-election Same event

Evening Standard

Hedges 1 of 22 claims Outlet record 65/100

Counting begins in Holborn and St Pancras as Polanski could come under pressure Same event

Evening Standard

⚖️ Leans right Hedges 4 of 29 claims Outlet record 65/100

Labour fends off Green party to win Holborn and St Pancras byelection Same event

The Guardian

⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 23 claims Outlet record 66/100

Labour retains Starmer’s Holborn seat defeating Green leader Zack Polanski Same event

Evening Standard

Hedges 0 of 4 claims Outlet record 65/100

UK PM Burnham's Labour fends off left-wing Greens in local election Same event

The Straits Times

⚖️ Leans right Hedges 0 of 10 claims Outlet record 66/100

Sagal Abdi-Wali says Labour byelection victory is testament to diversity Same event

Evening Standard

⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 25 claims Outlet record 65/100

Sagal Abdi-Wali's Holborn and St Pancras by-election victory speech in full: 'This place gave me hope' Same event

Evening Standard

⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 44 claims Outlet record 65/100

U.K. PM Burnham's Labour fends off left-wing Greens in local election Same event

The Hindu

⚖️ Leans right Hedges 2 of 17 claims Outlet record 77/100

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

Peter Walker Senior political correspondent

19 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

🔮 “The prime minister opened by setting out how he would shortly write to cabinet on the UK’s relationship with the EU,” it said, adding: “He said the Brexit deal left by the last government had been bad for the UK and had led to a harder Brexit than had been promised at the referendum.”

2026-10-28 · assertive framing · Tory Brexit was ‘harder’ than promised in EU referendum, says Andy Burnham

🔮 Adrian Ramsay, the former co-leader of the Greens, has urged his party’s councillors to reject the newly adopted “Zionism is racism” motion if it will help them stay in power in local government, in a fresh sign of internal dissent over the policy.

2026-10-20 · assertive framing · Ex-Greens co-leader urges council groups to reject Zionism policy

🔮 In post-byelection interviews, Polanski said he would have voted against the motion had he attended.

2026-10-09 · assertive framing · Leader of Jewish Greens calls for Zack Polanski to resign

🔮 A low turnout of 38.7% and Abdi-Wali’s numerically modest 3,364 majority that resulted might not appear the greatest endorsement of the government, but it is also likely to have been in part due to the widespread assumption that Labour would win.

2026-10-09 · mixed framing · Holborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens – but there may also be relief

🔮 Justifying the Conservatives’ decision to scrap the target of the UK reaching net zero emissions by 2050, introduced under Theresa May, the document says that estimates of how much this would cost the economy “have varied enormously”.

2026-10-09 · assertive framing · Tories overstate net zero cost by nearly £500bn in apparent spreadsheet error

🔮 Failure to win the seat by a reasonable margin could end his honeymoon period and bring renewed doubts about Labour’s ability to protect inner-city seats from the Greens, who won several London councils in May’s local elections. Holborn and St Pancras could be promising ground for the Greens, with a young and diverse population that includes many students.

2026-10-08 · assertive framing · Voting opens in high stakes Holborn and St Pancras byelection

🔮 It would involve a doubling of the defence budget in nominal terms from £70bn in 2026 to £151bn in 2035, according to the Transition Security Project, a research centre which was spun out of Common Wealth, a thinktank with close links to Andy Burnham.

2026-10-08 · assertive framing · UK’s military needs to focus spending on domestic defence, not overseas missions – report

🔮 The head of the Jewish Greens has said she may leave the party after it voted to adopt a policy that equates Zionism with racism and calls for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state.

2026-10-05 · mixed framing · Head of Jewish Greens says she may leave party over ‘Zionism is racism’ vote

🔮 The forthcoming Conservative conference will be, almost everyone in the party agrees, notably more upbeat and unified than last year.

2026-10-04 · assertive framing · Party conference will be more upbeat than last year, Tories say – but that’s not the whole story

🔮 The Conservatives have unveiled a proposed £700m childcare giveaway for high earners ahead of their annual conference, saying they would end the “cliff edge” where free entitlement ends at salaries above £100,000.

2026-10-03 · assertive framing · Tories would expand free childcare to high earners, Badenoch says

Also by Peter Walker Senior political correspondent

Tory Brexit was ‘harder’ than promised in EU referendum, says Andy Burnham

2026-10-28 · The Guardian

Ex-Greens co-leader urges council groups to reject Zionism policy

2026-10-20 · The Guardian

Leader of Jewish Greens calls for Zack Polanski to resign

2026-10-09 · The Guardian

Tories overstate net zero cost by nearly £500bn in apparent spreadsheet error

2026-10-09 · The Guardian

Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 19 articles by Peter Walker Senior political correspondent →

He will nonetheless be quietly pleased that the result does not seem to have shown much of a shedding of Green votes after criticisms of, and deep divisions in, the party since it adopted a highly controversial policy on Zionism and Israel last weekend.

framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-09

2026-10-09 · The Guardian

Holborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens – but there may also be relief · mixed framing

Parliamentary byelections can generate all sorts of emotional responses, often very strong ones. asserted

byelections → generate → responses

For Labour, Sagal Abdi-Wali’s victory with just over 45% of the total vote was widely expected, but it allows the party to credibly claim Andy Burnham as a politician able to reach people in both Reform-leaning areas such as Makerfield, and in Green-friendly inner cities. uncertain

party → expect → cities

Retaining a constituency formerly held by your last leader, Keir Starmer, and which has been overwhelmingly Labour since it was created in 1983, is in normal political times not that notable an achievement, but these are not normal times. asserted

these → retain → times

A low turnout of 38.7% and Abdi-Wali’s numerically modest 3,364 majority that resulted might not appear the greatest endorsement of the government, but it is also likely to have been in part due to the widespread assumption that Labour would win. uncertain

Labour → result → assumption

And what of the Greens, and particularly Zack Polanski, the party’s leader in England and Wales, who decided to go for the high-profile seat himself? asserted

who → decide → seat

Again, it may sound curious to think he would be happy with second place, but after the most challenging week of his political life it could have been worse. uncertain

it → sound → life

Polanski got just under 33% of the vote, well above anyone else apart from Abdi-Wali, a proportion which shows that in an another election, and up against a Labour party not enjoying a Burnham bounce, the Greens could still be highly competitive in seats like these. uncertain

Greens → get → these

When Polanski said he wanted to stand, the hope was for another wave of enthusiasm and publicity of the sort that propelled Hannah Spencer to victory in February in another supposedly safe Labour seat, Gorton and Denton. asserted

that → say → seat

it → seem → Zionism

The new policy, decided by members at the Greens’ annual conference, equates Zionism, the movement for a Jewish state, with racism, and calls for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state. asserted

Israel → decide → state

It is publicly opposed by four of the party’s five MPs, with numerous councillors distancing themselves as well and a handful resigning. asserted

handful → oppose → themselves

Polanski’s decision to not take a side, and even to absent himself from Sunday’s debate so he could campaign in the byelection, has prompted deep unease among some Greens, who termed it a failure of leadership. uncertain

who → take → leadership

It was notable that after the result, Polanski had to insist that he intended to stay as Green leader. asserted

he → have → leader

“Yes absolutely, that’s what leaders do,” he replied. asserted

he → ’ → what

While some in the Greens had questioned Polanski’s decision to contest a seat in north London, rather than east London, where he lives, his allies make the point that Nigel Farage took eight tries to become an MP. asserted

Farage → question → tries

Either way, the result has not made Polanski’s position any worse. asserted

position → make → ?

Had the Green vote collapsed he would have been under very intense pressure. asserted

he → collapse → pressure

As it stands, he must try to reassure sceptics in the party before seeking re-election in a year from now, under the party’s policy of two-year terms for leaders. asserted

he → stand → leaders

The Conservatives will be quietly happy with beating Reform UK to take third place, their 7.1% being almost exactly the same proportion of votes as they took in 2024. asserted

they → beat → 2024

This might not seem like much of an achievement, but the party’s national poll ratings remain stubbornly below 2024 levels, and thus stasis will most likely be claimed as more evidence of a Badenoch bounce. Way down in fifth place, the emotions begin the switch. uncertain

emotions → seem → switch

While they are byelection specialists, the Liberal Democrats were never going to win here, but they had put in at least some effort to boost their vote, with MPs going out this week to knock on doors. asserted

MPs → go → doors

Coming behind Reform on just over 3% of the vote will be a disappointment. asserted

Coming → come → vote

Amid the noisy debates over the leadership of Labour, the Tories and Greens, it can be easy to overlook the disquiet among some of Ed Davey’s MPs that the Lib Dems do not appear to be cutting through. asserted

Dems → overlook → MPs

He will not be feeling relief this morning. asserted

He → feel → relief

Holborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens – but there may also be relief

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