When Premier Ben Carroll was on Monday asked if he would accept the support of Greens MPs in parliament if it meant staying in power after November’s state election, he said he’d throw the keys back.
asserted
he → ask → keys
A day later, his opponent Jess Wilson faced the same question about One Nation.
asserted
opponent → face → Nation
She told the ABC’s Raf Epstein the only deal she was interested in was the existing coalition agreement between the Liberals and the Nationals.
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she → tell → Liberals
“I am running to form a majority government,” she said repeatedly, refusing to engage with the prospect of needing votes from Pauline Hanson’s party to maintain supply or confidence in parliament.
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she → run → parliament
Carroll’s braggadocios and Wilson’s evasion, while different in tone, reflect the same disconnect between the fundamental change taking place in Victorian politics and the determination of the established parties to stick to the old rules.
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braggadocios → reflect → rules
Nearly every opinion poll published over the past six months, including successive Resolve Political Monitor surveys conducted for this masthead, indicate that Victoria’s next government, whether led by Labor or the Liberal and National parties, may need the support of other parties to run the state.
uncertain
government → publish → state
Yet, whenever they are asked about this, and which parties they may be willing to work with, Carroll and Wilson refuse to countenance the possibility of not being able to govern in their own right.
uncertain
Carroll → ask → right
Bob Brown, the Greens elder statesman who in 2010 negotiated with then prime minister Julia Gillard an agreement that helped Labor govern in minority, says this is the standard approach of major party leaders when campaigning.
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this → negotiate → leaders
But he says that in Victoria, it is time for the premier and opposition leader to have a more open conversation with voters.
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premier → say → voters
“I think they do need to be mature enough to say if we don’t have the numbers, we will work with the most like-minded parties or independents to form government,” he tells The Age.
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he → think → Age
“That’s not a difficult thing to do.
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That → ’ → ?
Whether you’re Liberal, Labor, One Nation, or Green, or independent for that matter, that’s how it works.
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it → ’re → matter
Major parties threaten any concession to minority government as verboten.
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parties → threaten → government
Research suggests that most of the people who will decide the November 28 election don’t think like this and accept we have moved past a binary choice of government.
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we → suggest → government
Across May and June, a Resolve Political Monitor survey asked 1100 Victorians if the two-party system was over, and 45 per cent agreed.
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cent → ask → Victorians
Just 13 per cent disagreed.
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cent → disagree → ?
The biggest cheerleaders for an end to the two-party system were One Nation voters, with two out of three declaring our Ford v Holden political era at an end.
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two → declare → end
So why is Carroll, the man who leads Labor in Victoria, so opposed?
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who → lead → Victoria
Multi-party governments are in the norm in Tasmania – which has a different voting system to Victoria – as well as in New Zealand and many European parliaments.
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which → have → Zealand
It is standard practice in Europe for political leaders to declare before an election, which rival parties they would and would not be prepared to work with.
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they → declare → parties
Carroll’s position, if taken literally, means that if Labor falls short of the 45 seats it needs to form government unaided, it won’t work with other parties or independents to assemble a workable majority.
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it → take → majority
“It’s a spoilsport approach,” Brown says.
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Brown → ’ → ?
“It is saying: I’m not mature enough to negotiate and accept the people’s verdict.
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I → say → verdict
“If the voters in a democracy hand you that card, you have to deal with it, that’s your responsibility.
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that → hand → it
Spitting the dummy and saying ‘I’ll throw back the keys’ or, in the case of the Liberals, ‘I won’t even talk about having to deal with other parties after the election’, is not mature politics in the 2020s.”
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I → spit → 2020s
Carroll disputes this line of criticism.
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Carroll → dispute → criticism
He said on Tuesday he was being respectful to the electorate by making his intentions clear, likening his response to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who ruled out minority government ahead of the 2025 federal election.
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who → say → election
The most likely shade of minority government after the state election is a Coalition government supported by One Nation, followed by a Labor government supported by the Greens.
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shade → support → Greens
The numbers may exist for the Coalition to govern with support from Greens and/or teal MPs.
uncertain
Coalition → exist → Greens
If Labor and the Coalition are both left well short of a majority, it would even raise the possibility, albeit unlikely this time round, of a “grand coalition” between the major parties.
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it → leave → parties
Victorian Labor, which has been in power for 12 years and since the retirement of Daniel Andrews has recorded a collapse in popular support,
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which → record → support
That scare tactic will continue through to polling day.
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tactic → continue → day
So far, Wilson has steadfastly refused to say anything that could box herself in.
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that → refuse → herself
By doing so, Wilson is demonstrating a level of discipline rarely seen in a Victorian Liberal leader.
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Wilson → do → leader
She also leaves unanswered Labor’s attacks.
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She → leave → attacks
When how-to-vote cards are published, any preference deal between the Coalition and One Nation will be used to fuel claims the traditional centre-right and great disruptor are acting in concert.
uncertain
right → vote → concert
Speaking on the ABC, Wilson ruled out a formal coalition with One Nation, saying there would be “no deals”.
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Wilson → speak → Nation
The unspoken details are not whether One Nation MPs could serve as ministers in a Coalition government – they won’t – but the terms by which One Nation would guarantee a Wilson government confidence and supply.
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Nation → serve → confidence
Former state MP Susan Davies says there is no rule book to follow when negotiating such an agreement.
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Davies → say → agreement
She was one of three independent MPs who in the weeks after the shock result of the 1999 state election provided the numbers needed by Labor leader Steve Bracks to govern in minority and end the Kennett government.
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who → provide → government
…and 33 more, not listed.
The Aporia
