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Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says

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Power, J. (2026, October 13). Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/13/middle-east-and-central-asias-economy-to-shrink-in-2026-amid-war-imf-says?traffic_source=rss

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Al Jazeera · collected 2026-10-13 · by John Power

Quick Summary

The International Monetary Fund predicts that the Middle East and Central Asia will face economic contraction of 0.3 percent in 2026 due to disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, particularly affecting countries like Kuwait (-16.7%), Iraq (-16%), Qatar (-15.6%), Bahrain (-11.3%), and Iran (-7.6%). In contrast, Kyrgyzstan is forecasted for a 9 percent growth, making it an outlier in the region. The IMF warns that global risks such as further conflict escalation and AI-related uncertainties could worsen economic prospects worldwide.
Written by AI on 2026-10-13, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its economic forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia, predicting a 0.3% contraction in GDP for 2026, reversing an earlier prediction of 1.9% growth made in April. This downturn is largely attributed to disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, affecting vital shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Countries such as Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq are expected to face significant economic contractions, with GDP forecasted to shrink by 16.7%, 15.6%, and 16% respectively. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and the UAE might fare better due to their ability to reroute crude oil around the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar’s emir reported a sharp decline in government revenue, down 42% in the first half of 2026. The IMF anticipates a recovery for these nations next year if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes from March onwards.

Written for “IMF Economic Forecasts Cut” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 IMF Economic Forecasts Cut
Economy/Business · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
12
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
33%
4 of 12 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
60/100
Al Jazeera's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-13 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Al Jazeera · 4637 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)
2026-10-03
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Who wrote this

John Power
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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
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Topics

IMF Iran Kuwait Qatar the International Monetary Fund

Subjects

IMF ORG · 4× Iran GPE · 2× Kuwait GPE · 2× Qatar GPE · 2× 4Man PERSON · 1× 4Ronaldo PERSON · 1× Anthropic ORG · 1× Georgia GPE · 1× Saudi NORP · 1× the International Monetary Fund ORG · 1×

Narrative

The region’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to contract by 0.3 percent this year, a sharp downgrade from the 1.9 percent expansion projected in April, the IMF said in its latest economic outlook on Tuesday.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-13
🔮 The economy of the Middle East and Central Asia is set to shrink in 2026 amid the fallout of the US-Israel war on Iran, with countries such as Kuwait and Qatar facing double-digit contractions, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
2026-10-13 · Al Jazeera
Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says · mixed framing

Claims (12 extracted, 4 hedged)

The economy of the Middle East and Central Asia is set to shrink in 2026 amid the fallout of the US-Israel war on Iran, with countries such as Kuwait and Qatar facing double-digit contractions, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). uncertain
countries → set → Fund
The region’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to contract by 0.3 percent this year, a sharp downgrade from the 1.9 percent expansion projected in April, the IMF said in its latest economic outlook on Tuesday. asserted
IMF → forecast → Tuesday
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economy → wave → percent
Saudi Arabia, which has partially offset the hit to its energy sector by boosting oil exports through the East-West pipeline, is estimated to record negative growth of 3.3 percent. asserted
which → offset → percent
Kyrgyzstan is projected to have the strongest growth in the region, with GDP forecast to expand 9 percent. asserted
GDP → project → region
The Middle East and Central Asia is the only region that is likely to experience negative growth in 2026. asserted
that → experience → 2026
Emerging and developing Asia’s GDP is forecast to grow 5.1 percent, while the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to expand 4.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. asserted
economies → emerge → percent
The United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, are forecast to register growth of 2.3 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, while the eurozone’s GDP is estimated to grow 1.1 percent. asserted
GDP → forecast → percent
The IMF said it expected global GDP to grow 3.1 percent, up from 3 percent in its previous outlook. asserted
GDP → say → outlook
The Washington, DC-based institution said while economic activity had proved resilient this year, the global economy faced multiple risks. asserted
economy → base → risks
“Further escalation in conflicts, a reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), renewed trade tensions, and fiscal vulnerabilities could weaken growth,” it said. uncertain
it → surround → growth
“On the upside, stronger momentum in AI investment and productivity gains from AI or a sustained easing of geopolitical and trade tensions could strengthen growth.” uncertain
momentum → strengthen → growth
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