Labour would win a 56-seat majority if a general election were held tomorrow as the party enjoys a reversal in fortunes under Andy Burnham, a new mega-poll shows.
asserted
poll → win → Burnham
Latest research by Electoral Calculus, based on Find Out Now surveys, finds Labour would win 353 seats in the House of Commons, far ahead of the Tories on 90 seats.
asserted
Labour → base → seats
But Kemi Badenoch's party would have more MPs than the 81 constituencies going to Reform UK as support for Nigel Farage's party dwindles, according to the projection.
uncertain
support → have → projection
The latest national MRP (Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification) poll, produced for communications agency PLMR, reveals the extent of Labour's 'Burnham bounce'.
asserted
poll → produce → bounce
It will fuel speculation that the Prime Minister will be tempted to go for an early general election in order to capitalise on Labour's uptick in support under his leadership.
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Minister → fuel → leadership
Many in Westminster are braced for Mr Burnham to call a national vote in May next year - or even as soon as this December - despite his recent insistence he will wait until 2029.
uncertain
he → brace → 2029
Previous research by Electoral Calculus in April - prior to Mr Burnham's ousting of Keir Starmer as PM - found Labour was facing a collapse to just 86 MPs.
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Labour → find → MPs
Yet the latest polling - conducted at the time of Labour's recent conference in Liverpool - shows Labour having now overtaken Reform as Mr Burnham appears to be rallying Left-wing voters behind him.
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Burnham → conduct → him
This month's MRP projects the Liberal Democrats would get 70 MPs at a general election and the SNP would win 28 constituencies.
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SNP → project → constituencies
Meanwhile, the Greens are projected to win just 4 seats - down from the 71 constituencies they were expected to pick up in April's research as they benefited from Sir Keir's unpopularity.
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they → project → unpopularity
This month's survey puts Labour on 28 per cent of the vote (up from 17 per cent in April), ahead of Reform on 21 per cent and the Tories on 18 per cent.
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survey → put → cent
Restore Britain, the Right-wing outfit fronted by Rupert Lowe, were on 8 per cent in the latest sign they are cutting into Reform's support.
But Restore are projected to win just a single seat - Mr Lowe's Great Yarmouth constituency - at a general election, according to the MRP.
uncertain
Restore → front → MRP
The latest MRP projection takes into account the potential for tactical voting, with more than a third of Labour voters found to be willing to vote Tory to keep Reform out of power.
asserted
third → take → power
Despite the uptick in support for Labour under Mr Burnham, the Government was warned British politics remains 'volatile'.
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politics → warn → Burnham
Kevin Craig, CEO and founder of PLMR, said: 'There is still a long way to go before the next election, and this latest polling shows just how volatile British politics has become.
'
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politics → say → election
Voters are clearly giving Labour another hearing, but they will want to see delivery on the issues that matter most to them, from the cost of living to public services, before they fully buy into the party again.
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they → give → party
'The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Burnham can sustain this shift in support.'
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Burnham → come → support
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: 'Our figures show a remarkable reversal of fortune for Labour under Andy Burnham, with the party now predicted to win 353 seats, an outright majority.
'
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party → say → seats
Burnham has used clear Left-of-centre rhetoric to win back those voters who drifted to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens when Keir Starmer was leader, rather than chasing Reform voters.
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asserted
Starmer → use → voters
The Right, by contrast, remains split.
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Right → remain → contrast
Restore Britain would win very few seats, but it is cutting into Reform's vote and leaving Farage's party with fewer than 100 seats and even less than the Conservatives.
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asserted
it → win → Conservatives
A pact between the Conservatives and Reform would give them just 171 seats, not even half of Labour's 353.
'
asserted
pact → give → 353
Under the first-past-the-post system, the side that unites first wins - Burnham clearly understands that and is acting on it.'
Fieldwork for the latest MRP was conducted between 25 September and 2 October among 6,699 adults across Great Britain.
asserted
Fieldwork → unite → Britain
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